Francis, When Are You Ever Going to Play Smart?

MManal,

While I agree with most of what you say, I disagree with the idea that Francis will need an Eric Snow for this team to become consistent. I think that, once Ming is fully acclimated, we can run the offense through Ming more (but not always), and Francis can do more "off the ball" stuff. I don't see this team being succesful with Steve playing a primarily "off the ball" game.

One a side note, I agree whole heartedly with you assesment on the type of players we should bring in, especially at F. I do think, though, that we have these players already. If T-Mo develops a nice stroke, and eventually starts hitting shots at a decent percentage, and Eddie Griffin puts on an additional 15lbs, don't you think they are the perfect F's for this team?

For T-Mo, I think his jumper really suffered when he went down to injury. It looked much smoother early on, and it looks terrible right now. He just needs to gain more confidence in it. Maybe a whole year with len Rice can help, who knows. But T-Mo and Griffin are 2 players who don't need the ball, and they can (and at times, have) excel(led) at defense. They're also very athletic, are young, and have a good relationship with the team. With 7'6 Ming, 6'11 Griffin, and 6'10 T-Mo, we'd have one of the biggest frontcourts in the league.


I don't see this team winning less than half of their games. Fourty One wins is very much in reach, and I believe 45 wins will get us 7th seed. Sure, this is well below my hope for 5th, or even 4th, seed, but still, it's a 20-25 game improvement over last year, and playoff experience is invaluable to this team at the moment.

 

I really think that Mobley is the X factor, and should come off the bench, similiar to Vinnie"the Microwave" Johnson--old school detroit piston. Name another 6'4 starting shooting guard in the league other than David Wesley.

I think that Hawkins 6'6 should start beacuse we can use his defense early to help set the tone. Also Hawkins only shoots when he is open and does a great job of swinging the ball around to guys like Rice. The offense would should go through Ming the majority of the time. Then when YAO comes out for a breather & Cato goes in you also bring in Mobley.

Francis is fine at the point and will be an ALL STAR again this year.

Starters:
Francis
Hawkins
Rice
Thomas
Ming

Off the Bench:
Mobley--
Griffin
Cato
& Moochie only when Steve cant go.

 

Sane,

If Eddie can add the additional weight PLUS gain the mental ability to bang with 4s, then he would be the ideal PF for this team. Its not only the weight issue, you have to have the desire to bang against strong power players. IF Griffin can do this, then yes he would be a nice fit, but I just havent seen it. Griffin still plays like he is scared of contact aside from a few occassions (ie. against Tim Duncan).

As far as Terence Morris goes, yes if he can develop a consistent outside shot (3 ptr included), he would be an ideal complement at the 3 spot. However, aside from a little preseason brilliance, I have seen absolutely zero signs of this at the NBA level. I am a big fan of everything else T-Mo does ie defense, intanglibles, run the break etc. but if he is so inconsistent shooting wise, he is not a good complement for this team.

Those two I can agree on as being fits if their game develops as I was describing. However, no way on the guard complements. Cuttino Mobley and Moochie Norris are simply bad guard complements to Steve. You just cannot win consistently with 3 guards that are turnover prone whenever making decisions. All championship teams have atleast one if not two guards that have a high ast to TO ratio, are intelligent players and make sound decisions CONSISTENTLY. You can get by with one low IQ guard, but not three. In addition, as I pointed out, it is essential for this team to be effective consistently to have better defense at the point of attack. Steve has been in the league 4 years and still gives up way too much dribble penetration. Something to note, even if the Rockets acquired an Eric Snow type PG, it would not make Steve a 100% off the ball player. Steve would still have the ball in his hands somtimes, just not as a primary decision maker in the offense. Iverson still makes plays off the dribble in the Sixers offense, but he also does a lot of coming off screens and such for shots.

I assumed that the guard decision making would improve with Yao taking more of the load on offense, but it really hasnt. Since Mobley's return, it has slowly trickled back into a more iso based guard oriented system with poor decision making. Our turnover totals have been fluctuating as much as the Dow Jones. Thus, due to very inconsistent decision making by all three guards, this team will continue to be inconsistent. There is enough talent to win atleast 35 games even with this much inconsistency and as much as 45. Anything more than 45 is a pipe dream imo. Looking at the middle of that, 40-41 wins, I dont really consider that a huge improvement by any means. This team would have likely won atleast 35 games anyways last season had they been healthy. Thus, low 40s really isnt any great improvement.

 

That's a great answer. But the thing I have with re-arranging our backcourt is, I don't want to give up Mobley for a player who has a higher IQ, but doesn't have half the talent. For years and years, it's become obvious that post oriented MUST have a great penetrator to succeed (Duncan's season with Derek Anderson vs Other seasons). Cuttino Mobley, in that category, is one of the best in the league. Few people have a quicker first step, or a nicer "stop n pop". It's just those stupid, ill-advised shots he takes that prevent him from being a great 2-guard. He's shown lots of improvement in off the ball situations, and has proven to us that he can score when needed, and at a decent percentage.

My suggestion is this: Trade Moochie for a Veteran, experienced, hard-nosed, defensive backup. Someone very similar to Avery Johnson. I think having him backup Francis would be nicredible. With Avery, you're more comfortable leaving Francis in there and benching Mobley, and when he's not playing, he's a constant influence on Steve's maturity and understanding of the game.

As for Griffin, no one's made it a secret that he's been incredibly dissapointed. Which is why I suggest the very same thing for Griffin. Bring in someone who stresses banging in the post. Gasol isn't a big or strong player at all, but he uses toughenss, mental and physical. He uses 100% of what he has. Maybe we need someone to deliver that message to Griffin. That, along with the additional weight, can make Griffin succesful. It should be obvious by now that, Griffin won't just blossom into a nice player, that he needs to be worked on. Some suggestions for potential mentors: Tyrone Hill, Anthony Mason, Brian Grant (although he's not a big talker), Popeye Jones, Barkley (off the court advice, Philly connection is a plus), and possibly Horace Grant. My personal favourite would be Charles Oakley, but he signed with Washington, and it seems it's going to be his last season.

One final thought:

How would you feel about a Tyronne Lue + Charles Oakley + 2nd Round Pick for KT + Moochie deal?

Lue has some nice quickness, a great assist/TO ratio, and decent ouside shooting. He is small, and maybe we should go for someone taller. As for Oakley, we bring him in for all the reasons I mentioned. His play shows that, obviously, he won't be playing much. But he's not here to play big minutes. He's here to take the softness out of MoT and Griffin. 12 minutes a game from Oak, and one SINGLE season of him being in everyone's ear is worth that trade. After a year though, we just cut him loose, because when he stays in one place long, THAT'S when he becomes a disruptive influence.

 

Thats the whole point of this discussion. Have you ever heard the saying "too many cooks spoil the broth"? Im sure you must have b/c Dakota uses it quite frequently on this bbs. Larry Brown did this exact thing in Philly trading players with mega talent and name recognition like Tim Thomas, Larry Hughes and Jerry Stackhouse and surrounding Iverson with tough veteran role players like Aaron McKie, Eric Snow, George Lynch, Ty Hill, Theo Ratliff, etc, and that team went from lottery to playoffs to finals. This is exactly the point that is being made here; winning in this league is not about compiling a bunch of big names, its about chemistry, sacrifice, hard nosed play etc.

I want to surround Ming and Francis with intelligent players that complement their skills ie. Shane Battier, an Eric Snow type PG, Jon Barry, etc. Smart high IQ players that complement their skills. Also, I fully agree with your statement that a post game needs a good slasher in addition to shooters. Steve Francis would provide that for this team in place of Mobley. Steve Francis playing more 2 guard spot could do things Cat couldnt even dream of. Franchise unleashed would go off for 30 PPG and be such an explosive threat that teams could only hope to contain. This would be workable for the betterment of the team b/c the offense would be focused around Francis and Yao. In addition, Boki will eventually be a big time shooting and slashing complement. Thus, the team would have plenty of firepower but the proper steady high IQ role players to keep it consistent.

As far as your Moochie trade proposals. I seriously doubt Moochie has any real value. After a few good games, he has declined back to what he always has been. An average to below average backup PG with a fat contract. I dont think team's are in any rush to acquire his services. This team does have tradeable commodities, but Moochie is not one of them.

 

I remember I read an article in chron.com. Steve said that he was try to be a team leader who can pass the ball and get teammates involved.

Obviously, SF is at least trying, and he is doing better passing than last season. Maybe he is still not good enough, so we are supposed to lose more games and wait for him to improve his passing skill as a PG.

Just be patient.

 

If you compare Francis' game with Miller's, you can see why their fg% had such a big difference. Miller made layups, Francis didn't. That was not b/c Miller was a better scorer. It was b/c Miller had much easier layups.

Every time Francis got to the hole, he had to shoot between 2 or 3 defenders. When Miller went to the hole, he usually only had Francis as his escort.

Why was Miller having easier shots? Because he played a lot smarter. When Francis drove, he had only one thing in mind: go to the basket and score. He drove either from ISO, which had all other teammates out of the play, or he drove without first considering his other options (at least it seemed to me that way). If your opponents know that you are going to the basket, is it surprising that there will be a host of defenders waiting for you when you arrive?

Miller, on the other hand, mixed up the things. He would drive and dish to an open man. He would do a little stop and pop. You never know what he is going to do when he starts to make a move towards the basket. The interior defense has to respect his passing and not just leave their men and help on the drive. The on the ball defender also has to respect his mid-range jumpers. I think it is not that Francis was a poor defender, but he had to step up close to Miller to defend the J. But when you step up, he can easily drive by you and that's when you see a lot of times when Miller got the layups.

Francis needs to mix things up, driving, popping, or dishing, to get easier shots. I saw him missing some early jumpers and he began to resort to just driving to the hoop. IMO, Francis' biggest problem is impatience. When things clicks early on, he will play a very well-controlled game. But when things doesn't fall early, he will resort to relying on his physical abilities. When that happens, the whole offense suffers.

 

He is back to bench now.
I heard Moochie, Tylor and Nachbar are Yao Ming's friends,
look at those guys.....

 

Manny,

Thanks for the kind words, really appreciate it. This is an excellent topic that you brought up, and it is a very important question despite what some think. A lot of Cuttino lovers get irritated with this type of stuff, but this is not some knee jerk reaction by myself, and a lot of folks that feel this way. This is something I have observed and watched very closely over a long period of time. I even kept an open mind to seeing if the guard decision making and offensive flow would improve with a passing big man like Ming, but it still is extremely inconsistent, and I just dont see it improving. Im expecting some extremely brilliant performances b/c of the sheer talent on this team, and I am expecting some major stinkers. I just dont see this team with the current guard alignment having a sustained period success and being anything more than mediocre overall. Complement Steve and Yao with the appropriate talent.

 

Manny,
From the games I've seen and the progress made so far in his NBA career I predict Francis will never become the kind of point guard even Kenny Smith was. I can't believe how badly he mangles 3 on 1 or 3 on 2 fastbreaks - either the Rocks need to school him in more fundamentals or he's not learning when they do teach him. But with what we've seen of Yao so far, we don't need much of a traditional point guard, the same way the 93-95 Rocks didn't use one much or the Shaq Lakers were 1999-2002. It seems almost as if the Rocks need to go back to square one in teaching SF how to play basketball in a way other than other than ISO, take on the entire opposing team, if that fails, fling the ball wildly.

 

After seeing tonite's game (against Heat), I'm starting to think that the X-factor is really CAT. Ever since CAT came off the IJ, we've seen more guard play on the offensive end. Prior to that, I actually liked what I saw of improving SF and Yao chemistry. Well, if you check tonite's stats, you'll find some interesting trends... namely our assist differential (against us) and our rebounding differential (for us). I'm starting to believe that even if our team comes up short on the assist side, we'll make up for it (ala Ming) on the boards. However, the big tradeoff is that "assists" have an intangible benefit of 1.sparking the offense, 2.getting people "involved" in the game and 3.a way to control the tempo.

Just some thoughts.



theSAGE

 

I prefer Clutch's interpretation - the only way the guards were going to pass to Yao tonight was to throw up a prayer and hope Yao got the rebound. Cato did an excellent job on the boards in limited time, too.

 

Oh.. so how does this relate to SF playing smarter? I almost forgot the punchline...

Basically, my feeling is that with Cat also taking some 20 odd shots, you see SF also urgent to be getting a healthy number of shots. So what happens is you see an even more urgent SF forcing the action instead of letting the game come to him. The translation, to us viewers? Sloppy play, turnovers, missed j's, etc. Interestingly, off time-outs, RudyT seems to have an knack of settling SF down and reorganizing the troops to run high% set plays. Even on Defense, SF came out huge tonite in those last 8 secs or so. Any chance the TimeOut had a good effect on SF?

If So, I'm all for RudyT to use your TimeOuts earlier in the game, esp when SF seems to be getting out of hand.



theSAGE

 

Clutch's recap pretty well sums up the frustration of this board with our guards; they are the agony and the ecstacy. They almost cancel themselves out. All their points and good plays are cancelled out by dumb plays and turnovers. Their is no greater committed long term Rocket's fan than Gene Peterson. During the broadcast tonight he said things like, "Francis can be very frustrating to watch," (tell me!) and "Steve, you have GOT TO PASS THE BALL!"

What is left to say. The Rocket's won, yes, but they made it soooo much harder than it had to be. This is my fourth year to watch Francis. He makes more unbelievably great plays and more absolutely stupid plays THAN ANY PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL PLAYER I HAVE EVER SEEN, EVER! He is just a mystery, and I have really given up hope of any significant change. The other players on this team will have more difficulty reaching their potential because of Francis's style of play. I know, it is amazing to be frustrated with a victory, but I am.

 

I guess I should delete my post!!!

 

MManal,

Well said.

I have been harping on the biggest problem the Rockets have right now. Too many players who are not complimentary to the star players.

Mobley is the odd peg right now, he would be a perfect Vinnie Johnson type player.

However, you should only have 2 of your star players on the court at any one time, or at least 2 guys who demand the ball. You should surround them with role players who fit in on defense and an occasional shot etc.

Mobley should play with both Yao, and or Francis but not all 3.

This would work, if Mobley would be willing to do it. I do not see it happening though.

The Rockets chemistry is exactly the problem right now. Too many players who feel that they need to be the man, and the best chance the Rockets have of winning on a consistant basis is Yao Ming.

He is far and away the smartest player on the Rockets and has a better understanding of the game.

He will make mistakes, but we have already watched Steve and Cuttino make mistakes for years...why not let a guy who shoots 60% make some mistakes? At least Yao would pass the ball and play as a good team player.

Rudy needs to make some changes in order for the Rockets to realize their full potential, or players have to settle into roles.

I personally do not think that some of the Rockets would fit into their roles...but maybe Rudy can convince them to sacrifice individual stats for team victories.

DaDakota

 

Last time I knew, a gorilla had much more athletic talent then any human could. It can jump higher, run faster, and without a doubt stronger. That doesn't make him a good basketball player though.

By the way, <B>"talent" is an over used word</B> just like potential. <B>If Mobley had so much talent then why did he fail to take over games last year?</B> A lot of players in the league could put up Mobley's numbers and play better defense if they were given the chance to be number 2 option. I'm not impressed with your arugment.

<B>Side note:</B> Without Yao Ming this team would be in the same position as last year. I am in agreement we need to get a point guard who can dish the ball and move Francis to shooting guard. Use Mobley as bate.

 

Personally, I am more concerned with Francis being the square peg than Mobley. Mobley has learned to defer to Francis, Francis is yet to defer to anyone. Also, I don't think there is anything wrong with having three 3 explosive offensive players on the court at the same time. Glen Rice went to the Lakers as a #1 option and quickly became the #3 option in the Lakers first recent championship team. The Mavs have 3 fine offensive players. In some of the Bulls runs Kokoc played with MJ and Pippen. The key is getting all the guys on the same page, not neccessarily some innate problem with having 3-4-5 players capable of being individually offensively dominant if the situation calls for it.

I totally agree with this. But again I think it will be harder for Francis to accept being the clear 2nd option in most circumstances than it will be Mobley to move from the 2nd to 3rd option in most circumstances.

 

Uh . . . I thought that's what Rice was whining about and got shipped out.