RESPECT!! Also, this would all be a relative non-issue if the freaking GM didn't decide to trade a first round pick for Terrence Williams. Not sure what he was thinking there?
I'm confused too. My main point isn't really that draft picks in 2012 are worth more than in 2014. I think that's a general rule, with exceptions (guaranteed contract, draft depth that year, protections, where that pick is projected to be, etc.). It's that given that value of the "now," why would New Jersey not take the 2012 Knicks pick for our "future" lottery-protected pick back? Or if we fail to make the playoffs, why wouldn't they take the 13th or 14th pick for that future pick back (if it was tying Daryl's hands that much)? That's actually a better pick than they could ever receive, and they get it now. Would Daryl do that? I don't know, but if it was hurting his flexibility that much, would New Jersey say no? Granted, Rockets brass had no idea where the Knicks pick would/will end up and only they know what New Jersey is willing to do, but to remove that draft pick obligation isn't a reason to delay rebuilding and go all in to make the playoffs.
At 4:39 I posted the following in a post: Heypartner responded at 6:25 continuing to articulate his position, which is fine. He also continued to respond in the thread. You responded at 7:08, saying exactly what I already said. At 7:15, heyp quoted the above exactly and noted: I don’t care, but was just pointing out, after you stated the exact same thing I said, it became a good point. Again, it's all good, just making an observation... Your point above is part of my argument, exactly. Which is, DM can certainly find ways around the issue by being creative. Add to the fact that something now is worth more than something later, it's why I'd prefer draft pick now then playoffs and no draft pick now.
Not that simple. In order for the Rockets to trade their own 2012 pick RIGHT NOW, they would need to receive an UNPROTECTED 2012 or 2013 pick from another team. Even the Knicks pick doesn't qualify, since there is still a chance (however small) that New York could end up with a top-5 pick. I suppose if the Rockets miss the playoffs then, at the 2012 draft, they could trade their #14 pick for another team's 2013 pick, although that pick would likely have SOME form of protection on it. In either case, the Rockets will be faced with the same problem again at next year's trade deadline. They could offer up the other team's protected 2013 pick, but they couldn't offer up any of THEIR OWN picks except for the "Undesirable Future Pick" (defined in Post #35 of this thread). That strategy (which Clutch also mentioned) might work in theory, but New Jersey is in a rare position where the cap hold for the #14 pick IS a big deal to them (yes, heyp, it's a big deal to a couple of team!). If the Nets are unable to trade for Howard by the trade deadline, there is a very real chance they could acquire him in free agency, while at the same time keeping both Deron Williams AND Brook Lopez. It will take some very tight squeezing under the cap, and the Nets may need to dump a small contract or two. They would probably rather just have the pick obligation, frankly. That is, unless the Rockets agree to take on, say, Johan Petro's $3.2M contract expiring in 2013 (an idea I've had since last summer). Les and Morey can BUY picks in that range fairly easily (especially if they don't throw cash into any trade deadline deals next week). It's DEFINITELY not worth missing the playoffs in order to trade down for a couple of those types of picks. The playoff experience (for both the players and fans) is worth far more than such a pick. (And Clutch, my "first bullet point" from my earlier post was more about the fan experience than anything that helps the Rockets players or in trades/free agency.) That's just it. With a 21-19 record right now, most teams know that the Rockets' pick will be no better than, say, #13. But to have even the CHANCE of an unprotected future Rockets pick, where we don't know if a full-on rebuilding job will eventually go underway, carries far more value to opposing GMs. Frankly, there's a pretty good chance that the Rockets strike out in free agency and aren't able to put together a mega trade for a star. At that point, a rebuilding is quite likely. (Also, to your later point [not quoted here], I don't think Morey will actually give up unprotected picks--unless for a super-duperstar--but rather would put at least some limited protection on them.) FYI, there are no Euros drafting in the first round this year. Maybe one in the very late first round. Last year was the year to draft a Euro. I think where we disagree is on the ability of the Rockets to parlay #14 and #16 into a future superstar young player. Those guys will either be off the board by #9 or, if they fell, the team holding that #9 pick would either draft the future star or trade it for something better than what the Rockets are offering. I also think there are plenty of other "assets" on this roster that can (either alone or in combination) easily replace the value of a #14 pick. Any team willing to trade DOWN in the draft is looking for additional depth. The Rockets have that in spades. YOUNG depth. Make. The. Playoffs.
^ all great points. I'm not too worried about it either way, and certainly am less of a proponent of tanking now as I was before the season started. Thanks for responding!
Sorry, JayZ750 -- my fault. My re-entry to the thread was when I saw BimaThug's return to the board and I should have read more closely the posts between my initial reply to the OP and Bima's post. I do think heypartner's reply is getting unwarranted criticism though.
I'm not criticizing it, just providing different viewpoint! My last comment about him responding to you and me was more tongue in cheek than anything. And I hopefully wasn't doing the same with my response to Bima above. Heyp, I've seen you and Bima discuss this previously, so understand both of your positions, and think they are VERY valid. I'd even venture to argue some of Bima's latest response may be turning me, primarily because I did not realize the extent of the rules - meaning you'd have to trade for an UNPROTECTED future first, though it makes complete sense, because if protected you don't definitively have it. His comment with regards to buying second round picks is valid, too. I'm still not completely turned. For one, a #14 pick still has the ability to be a top 3 pick.. though understandably, that's one hell of a long-shot. And for two, I put faith in some day believing DM will find in the late lotto a future Kobe Bryant type player. Well, that's a big stretch, but a player that could be really great, either by just having more mid first round picks, or packaging two and a player (Kevin Martin?) to move up considerably. But that said, to Bima's points about buying second rounders, if I'm arguing DM can be creative to work around obligation, he can also be equally creative to acquire mid first round picks, I'd guess. Anyways... either way, like I previously mentioned, I don't think it has a huge impact on big picture changes with the team.
What?! You're getting cheeky with me AND you're not completely turned to my point of view based on my arguments??? That's it. I'm out of here! (Just kidding. ) JayZ, I'm not so sure that Morey's going to want to buy second rounders in this draft . . . unless the Rockets trade multiple young assets or picks in a prior deal. Right now, the following players age 24 or younger are slated for the 2012-13 Rockets roster: Chase Budinger Patrick Patterson Chandler Parsons Marcus Morris Donatas Motiejunas Greg Smith 2012 NYK 1st round pick 2012 MIN 2nd round pick And that doesn't even count the Rockets' pick if they miss the playoffs! Hell, my personal strategy would be to trade that MIN 2nd rounder for one or more future second rounders. I'm not sure (even with Morey's drafting prowess) that anyone he picks there would make the roster. Better to have an extra pick in 2013, when the Rockets will likely be without their own second round pick (David Andersen trade).
This, and everything else you say makes sense.... IF the team had a direction at all? That's the problem. They have no direction. If in the offseason they haven't solved the bigger problem - choosing a direction, landing a big fish or full rebuild - then I see no reason not to continue to add new pieces, second rounders or not, to try and find a gem in the rough, as that is your only option if you continue to strike out on making a big splash or letting Les lete you rebuild completely... otherwise your just continuing to continue down the same path of whatever this path is...
hey guys, I didn't have time to read and absorb the posts and make a better response. I too was excited to see BimaThug's post. I was confused about the idea to offer NJ the NY pick. So, had to simplify it in my mind. I don't have the facts clear in my head of our picks, obligation and what is allowed and not. I don't really have what I consider thorough knowledge of our picks anymore and our cap situation. Used to, but certainly not this year. That's why I was paraphrasing what BimaThug explained earlier in the season. It made sense and was pretty thorough. JayZ750, did it sound like I was trying to use his position as argument?...it probably did. I've seen your posts, and I know you follow this more closely than I. In past posts I have used his articles simply as a way to say "consider this point." I should have wrote "what is your take on BimaThug's points" x y z. And I shouldn't even have done that without finding and rereading his actual article/posts. All I'm really trying to do is understand Morey's current plan. I don't want to come across as rehashing issues of how to rebuild. That's the main reason I originally did not get into my feelings about the intangible values of playoff mode. I didn't want to go down that road. Hey, you want to know my main reason for wanting to go for the playoffs for the rest of 2012? Because I'm sure Coach and Lowry want to. And I want them to get what they want -- the Playoff Stage on TNT. Even if it proves not to be the smartest thing. cheers
I haven't posted in years and forgive me if this is being discussed in another thread... but are we considered a player to land any of the marquee free agents this summer? I see the idea of losing a 1st round pick this year (in what is considered to be a fairly deep draft) as a good thing to maximize cap space and I found myself a little lost. I know middle of the 1st round draft picks aren't the sexiest picks but plenty of impact players are found their over the years, especially in deep drafts. I am out of the loop and would love to purge some quick information from you guys.
WiNK - welcome back. The Rockets could have a lot of cap room -- see <a href="http://rockets.clutchfans.net/2316/houston-rockets-salary-cap-update/">BimaThug's Rockets salary cap update</a> from about 4-5 weeks ago. It does a great job breaking down what the Rockets could have in cap room, and how they could be a player in free agency. The question is supply... the three big superstars expected to be free agents in 2012 were Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Dwight Howard. Paul won't be on the market. Deron and Dwight, by many accounts, want to pair up together. The Rockets also don't appear to be drawing serious interest from superstars that they chase. So we're all waiting until this Thursday (NBA Trade Deadline) to see what happens with Howard. If nothing happens, those guys could pair up this summer... but the growing fear around the league is that Dallas may be the frontrunner in that case (they would have to make a salary dump of Shawn Marion's contract). So if Houston does not pull off a trade, you almost have to hope that Dwight gets dealt to New Jersey, just to keep the "Killer D's" (Dirk, Dwight, Deron, Dallas) from forming.
So it would seem that people are wanting to get rid of a 1st round draft pick to keep themselves believing in a delusion. It is always nice to hope that a major superstar will somehow (through trade or free agency) land on your team but it seems highly unlikely that the 2 free agents this summer are going to choose to play for us. Like you said, it seems that Dallas is the frontrunner for Deron (frontrunner being an understatement) and at that point we would be left with one player to go after. Why would any Houston fan hope to lose a 1st round draft pick on the hopes that Dwight decides that playing in Houston is a better option than playing with Deron and Dirk. Probably because that one draft pick provides no real hope to legitimately contend for a championship in the next couple years. I live in Oklahoma City now and I have seen how a team can go from a team with no real hope for a championship to a real contender. It started with gutting the franchise (Ray Allen trade was a major shocker at the time from what I can remember) and finding players each year in the draft that fit your team. Westbrook, Durant, Harden, Ibaka. Granted it is always lucky when you are able to draft a true MVP type talent such as Durant, but the Thunder have obviously done their homework and made impressive draft picks in those years they were in the lottery. Now they are all but assured they will contend for championships for the foreseeable future. What is most impressive to me about the turnaround of that franchise is that it was mainly done through the draft. Oklahoma City is not a hotbed for free agents. Houstonians probably won't like hearing this (I don't like typing it), but I don't believe that Houston is either. I don't believe that this franchise can hope to clear cap space and sign all the major free agents for that year like a Miami or New York or Los Angeles can. Does Morey believe that this team is a piece away from contending for championships? Maybe if that piece was Lebron or Durant. I just don't see Pau or Bogut pushing us over the edge (especially if we have to get rid of our best players to do it). This is just my opinion, but I believe it showed poor foresight by management to not gut the franchise after last year to gear towards the coming draft. This seems like a year that has several players that franchises can be built around. I've been a Rockets fan for close to 2 decades now and it seems we have been toiling in the "above average" zone since the days of Hakeem. I think that's because we can hoping we can make the jump from above average to contender by making that one big trade or signing that one marquee free agent. I can't even remember the last time that happened (unless you count Kevin Martin, which I don't), yet we put all our eggs in that basket every year. It grows tiresome to watch, especially when an alternative blueprint to success is out there. To win championships you have to be bold.... I think the bold move at this point is to gut the franchise. I hope I'm wrong though.
Thank you........this whole "attract a superstar" nonsense needs to stop. The only reason that worked with McGrady is because of a guy named Yao. We don't have any players like that. Its time to gut the team....suck it up and draft players.
Two mid-round picks on nbadraft.net right now: 17 *Houston Perry Jones 6-11 235 SF/PF Baylor So. 18 Denver Terrence Jones 6-9 244 SF Kentucky So. /Longness /
I wonder what the people in Seattle think. They had to suck for many years and lose their franchise for OKC to reap the benefits and get the right picks in the right drafts. THUNDER! People always point to OKC as how to rebuild very quickly...but forget about Seattle. RIP Seattle. So, if we actually use the OKC model...does that mean we get so bad for many years so Les fires Morey and moves the franchise?
Technically the Rockets have a pick and maybe their own. According to Daryls genius our 2 maybe picks is better than having two actual draft picks.
I know that SOMEBODY is going to fall back in the draft.... maybe John Henson, Jones III, Jones, Leonard, Sullinger, etc. There will be talent in the 10 to 20 range, but how many of those players will have high level talent?... Not many. Most likely, if the Rockets get two picks in this range, one if not both of those players will be a rotation player at best. The Rockets do not need, or have the roster spots for many more players with Montiejunas and possibly Llull coming over this summer. There would be a very good possibility that the Rockets would actually be forced to trade a 1st round pick on draft day this year anyways. Plus, if a Gasol, Bogut, or other major deal doesn't happen before Wed. I have a good feeling that the 09ers and/or Dragic would be moved most likely getting a pick, or picks back in some fashion.
