While perusing the various threads in this forum recently, I have been repeatedly visited by a disturbing thought. Even a superficial examination of the questions being asked on this board which do not have to do with Yao Ming reveal one thing: They are the exact same questions we were asking a year ago. Let's take a look...A year ago at around this time, we were asking variations of the following questions.. Is Steve Francis A Point Guard, or A Shooting Guard? I would say that the past year has done exactly nothing to clear this issue up...We are still debating the same question, and still coming up with the same vague conclusion: Time will tell....But will it? What has happened in the past year to indicate a clarification of Steve's grasp of the role? Has he noticeably improved or regressed as the guy who initiates the offense and gets others involved, or is he still having games or halves where he does so, and games where he looks to take over, irrespective of success? You tell me... Is Cuttino Just A Talented Chucker? Same result here...no closer to an answer. I will say that he was showing brief spurts of more team opriented play before the injury, but he has had glimpses like that before...His primamry value remains as a scorer, and his primary deficiency still seems to be that adds little else. Who Should Be Our Starting Forwards? This time last year we were in flux at these positions...and we are still very much the same. The addition of Mo whose absence last year was what many attributed the lack of definition to, has done nothing more than make the waters more murky. Has T-Mo shown the consitent jumper to warrent starting? Or has Rice shaken off age and injury to establish himslef as the guy at the 3...Is Kenny a starter on a good team, or an iso-only player who hustles and can contribute when he's on, but adds nothing and disrupts the offense when he's not? Has Eddie added to his offensive repertoire to expand his game to more than being a 3-pt shooter who blocks shots and rebounds? Are any of these things any clearer than last year? Why Doesn't Rudy Play Rookie _______ As Much as He deserves, or Rookie _______At All? Last year the first was Griffin and the second was Morris...This year it is Yao Ming and Nachbar...but we are still asking the same questions. EG's minutes last year would make us all scratch our heads, some times even when injuries seemed to leave little alternative...and we invested a 1st round pick in Morris, only to sit him for most of the year...This year, despite an increasing role, we still have night after night where Yao's time on the pine leaves us wondering...and we invested a 1st rounder in Boki, only to watch him sit...Any change? And there are innumerable others...What kind of offense are we running? Is Rudy losing control? Are we a selfish team? Can the guards play defense? Why does Moochie's playing time seem in no way linked to his play?It goes on and on...Now, on the positive note, none of these questions have been answered with a ringing negative...Steve hasn't stopped trying to occassionally stress team play...Cuttino hasn't lost the ability to contribute on offense, and has shown some signs of expanding his role...Morris, Thomas, Rice, and Taylor have all shown flashes this year that writing them off would be premature...but on the negative side we have not clarified a single thing. I have always advocated taking the long view, and don't expect to see immediate results on the scoreboard, especially where the kids are concerned, but in a year I would have hoped that we would see some definable progress, some answers to the questions...And aside from the addition of Yao Ming, and all that he has meant, what has changed? By that I mean, take Ming off the team this year, and are we any different than last? Steve is healthier, and Mo is back...but have their additions answered any questions? What does it say about the future resolution of these questions, or our managements ability to resolve them, that a year's difference has seen no progress made in answering them? Can we continue to wait for time to bring with it clarity? If so, for how long? At what point do we decide that no answers is in itslef an answer...I am not saying that I have in any way given up hoping that some of these questions will resolve themselves, or that Rudy et al don't have a strategy in place which will lead us to a light at the end of this murky tunnel...but I am pointing out that the present haze is becoming damn familiar. I anticipate that some will point to our record, and say that that indicates progress...and I would agree...I'm not saying that we haven't improved our play. Cato, for one, has stepped it up this year, and that coupled with Francis' health and especially the addition of Yao Ming has contributed to a better record than we had at this point last year...but the questions remain, and we won't be able to get much better than we are now until we answer them. Others will say that we are primarliy undergoing a state of flux because of our attempt to incorporate Yao into the offense...but that is a limited argument. There was little evidence that these questions were being answered before Yao became involved, and many of them could well be answered independant of whatever Yao Ming is or isn't doing...and indeed, his progress should help to clarify some of them...But my primary response would be that those comments are off topic...I am not saying that we have not progressed in any way. I am saying that our fundamental questions not involving Yao Ming are in exactly the same state that they were at this time a ayear ago;...unanswered.
There's little in that long treatise that I agree with in terms of unanswered. I guess I don't have as many questions. I look at it as more expectations reached and disappointments found. I always expected Rice to perform like this...which is fine. Griffin and Mo are disappointments....and Mo actually has me worried about his injury longterm. Kenny is as expected for me....which is much more positive than most around here. I think we are getting a lot of answers. Francis has the midrange, and just needs to find it again, but seems more than happy to be part of building a new offense. Yao is as expected and solid. imo, the biggest question has been answered, and that is can we run a zone busting motion. The answer is yes.
yeah...we can now do the post up again, and run zone. great defense. well, this thread post was too long...dont feel like readin ghtat much...jsut read the last post.
In defense I think he is right. many of the issues this team had in the 45 win season have not been answered... injuries kind of suspended the process and now we have to deal with them again. last season it was too easy to say steve has migrains mot is injured ect... this year at first was jelling but as francis said recent if we are still jelling then we have a problem.... granted working yao ming into the fold will take longer then I want it to and I am a big give the ball to yao fan.... and I see the team is adjusting but I find it slower then I would like. the jury is still out on Cat he was injuried and hasn;t had a chance to prove he has matured... Steve says the right things but I am not convinced yet he truly understands when yao has the ball Steve's stats WILL go up.... As for the rookie situation I think part of it is that Rudy is a player coach and has a structured depth chart... and injuries do not lower ur stop on the rotation. rudy has always been like that... nackbar will get his chance give rudy time... as for yao ming he is soooo good he beat out cato in the dpeth chart during practice... I think Yao's learning curve will be contageous and will help the team adjust faster as he gets better and better... I am not convinced these problems are here to stay but they do need to be adressed by rudy... Hopefuly rudy well creat a system and force steve to follow it.
I did some anaylysis based on the first 18 games of this season and the first 18 games of the last season: Win .......... Lost........... Total 7 ......... 11 .......... .18 ..................... 2001-2002 8 ......... 10................18 ..................... 2002-2003 Using Chi-Square test i get probability=0.32. That means if i say rocket is not improved this season. The probability i am right is 0.32. By the way i am not a professional statistican.
Great post Macbeth. I agree, the team isn't showing the progress that everyone was hoping for. The only new things we can count on, it seems, are great play from Yao Ming and more hussle from Cato. The most disturbing trends are the lack of development by Francis and Rudy's offensive system. And we saw it last night against New Orleans: The Rockets WILL keep losing if Moochie Norris has to take over at the point in the 4th quarter to set up islolations. But I do think Kenny Thomas is settling the question of who is the power forward. None of the other guys have shown the ability to have a game like he did against New Orleans. And Is Moochie's increased playing time is a reflection of the fact that Francis isn't setting up the plays like Rudy wants?
I should clarify...I am not saying that we have not improved. While I do appreciate the math, support, and argument, I am saying that we have shown no progress towards answering the key questions we were asking about the team at this time last year...Other things have improved, other answers might be forthcoming...but as of right now, I see the same unanswered questions still prevelent, and am concerned... HP..I appreciate your POV, and as to your last point, I agree that we might have seen an answer there, particularly because of Yao Ming...but are you really saying that you don't recognize that the major questions I posed are both the ones which were most discussed/of concern last year, and remain unanswered? It's not a matter of whether or not any of those non-answers is surprising, but just what does the fact that they remain so betoken... As to the length of my posts...granted. I do occassionally feel like Polonius addressing Claudius and Gertrude...5 points for the 1st person to identify the relevant line...
Obviously we have improved. Last season we played horrifying defense. No thesaurus has enough words for how bad it was. This season, you might even go so far as to call our defence "good". I know that most people are unable to look beyond offense, but maybe you should once in a while. Notice that almost all the questions brought up by Macbeth were about offense, when our defense was even worse than our offense last year. In fact, last season, our best defense was the offense running 24 seconds off the clock.
Steve needs to take care of the ball, but he got guys involved tonight. He hooked up Cat a couple of times.
I just don't think this matters. Francis missed most of last year with his inner ear problem, the shoulder problem and the foot problem. Additionally, he had basically no one to pass the ball to. Frankly, up until Yao cam along, he had been asked to shoulder the lode offensively. That is tough to do as a guard and still make plays for your teammates, especially when your teammates cannot hit a shot. They were a horrible shooting team last year. Again, I don't think we can completely answer this question until we see the effects of an inside-out offense on the Cat. Like Steve, he was asked to carry much of the offensive burden up until only recently. Now that the team has a variety of offensive options, it bears watching to see if Mobley fits into the offense. Actually, the four position was very clear last year because all we really had was a REALLY young guy in Griffin and Kenny Thomas. At that point, you have to play Thomas who proved he could be an effective scorer to go with his solid defense. Griffin was just an anomoly last season and probably wouldn't have seen much time had it not been for all the injuries. Mo is struggling with his offense this year and I think it is probably lingering effects of his injury. Most guys take nearly 2 years to heal from an achillies injury and he isn't there yet. As for small forward, to me there is no question that Rice is the starter. The Rockets like to run the three-guard lineup and can move guys like Hawkins and Mobley around in that position, but Rice is the guy who gets the call because he has been healthy and he is hitting his shots. Boki is the heir apparent who probably will see limited action this season. TMo is one of those solid all around guys who can play two positions. Those are valuable guys to have on your bench. Yao is getting the minutes now, but how is this any different from really any rookie other than Francis and maybe Michael Dickerson? Cassell didn't play many minutes until the all-star break. Kenny Thomas? Eddie Griffin was 19. I mean, this is pretty standard practice for Rudy and for most coaches around the league. Bottom line is, if you have a good team, there are very few rookies playing big minutes. It has always been that way with very few exceptions. 1. Offensively, we are changing and that is due to the emergence of Yao Ming. It cannot be overstated that a team that has run a primarily guard-oriented offense for 2+ years is going to have an adjustment to make with a dominant center playing. Try doing it on the fly with no training camp. The fact that they are succeeding making these changes is really impressive. 2. No. There are absolutley no signs of this. In fact, there are signs of the opposite. Steve is settling down and letting the game come to him. The players are getting Yao Ming invovled. The team is moving the ball around more than they did early in the season. Defensively, this is the best the Rockets have played in years. They are 7-1 at home to start, their best start since 1996. 3. Sometimes. This is a young bunch of guys trying to learn how to play as a team. It takes a long time to learn that if you are used to being the man. Francis and Mobley, in particular, are used to having the green light - from high school right on through their first few years in the NBA. They are learning to adjust their games but it is going to take time. 4. Yes, in the matchup zone. As individual defenders, our guards are average at best, though Steve has really improved his theft abilities this season. However, in the matchup zone they have been running, they are markedly improved as is the team's defense. We are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA (see my other post). Having quality shot blockers to back you up certainly helps. 5. That is tough to answer. He is improving but, like the rest of the team, he must adapt to the new style of play the team has adopted. He has shown improvement over the last 4 or 5 games. We are better at home - the best start since 1996. We are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA compared to being one of the worst last year. We are a better rebounding team. We have a better record and are more competitive than ever - only a couple of losses have been blowouts. I think this is a case of looking at everything through a microscope and missing the big picture. The team has made significant strides even without Yao Ming. But, the addition of Yao Ming simply changes everything. With him, all best are off. You cannot compare last season and where we were to this season and where we are without discussing the impact of Yao. It effects everything. It would be like talking about the Rockets without Hakeem Olajuwon. It impacts every facet of the game - offense, defense, rebounding, passing, you name it. As a result, the team is changing. Right now, it is in flux much like Yao. They will be up some nights and down others because so many changes are happening, but can you honestly go back to last season and say that we are no better off than we were then? It's like night and day. Yes, we have a lot of improving to do, but at least we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Last year was more like a black hole.
Just a quick stats lesson in layman terms. A probability of .19 does not mean you have a 19% chance of being right. In fact, it doesn't mean anything. You see, any probability greater than .05 means that the 2 things you are comparing (i.e. this season and last season's record) are not statistically different. Don't panic though. Run your analysis again at the All-Star Break, when your sample size (i.e. number of games played) is larger, then maybe you can verify that Rockets are mathematically a better team.
Man! Probability=0.05 and probability=0.19 means the same thing. P=0.05 just means your hypothesis almost can not happen!!! There is no meaning of statistical significant, although most people make it at p=0.05!!!
How can you possibly compare last year's team and this year's team? I can understand if last year's team was 100%, but comparing last year's team and wondering if they're improved or Francis is improved, or Mobley is improved just isn't logical. Last year's team was missing Glen Rice, Mo Taylor, and Francis the majority of the year, had a banged up Cuttino, an inexperienced Griffin, No Yao Ming and an under performing Cato. Even if Francis were healthy he had nobody to pass it to. Now look at tonight, he gets 7 assists. Why? Because he had guys who were capable of scoring, Ming, Rice, Cuttino, KT, Moochie, all guys who can score and produce from the perimeter, slashing and in the paint. Bottomline, take Ming off of this team and they're a heck of a lot better then they were last year. This team, the team without Ming, was projected to make the playoffs last year or make a serious run at the playoffs last year. So I would say that is improvement considering they're healthy. You want to see how much this team has improved without Ming? While Ming struggled early in the season the first few weeks to get used to the NBA this team had a winning record. In fact, until Ming had his bit game against the Lakers the Rockets were 4-3. The Dallas game was the game where Ming finally arrived, going into that game the Rockets were 6-3. The team was obviously more improved without Ming, mainly because of health. Ming is just the missing puzzle that allows the Rockets from being a team that can get an 8th seed with a soft frontcourt to a team that could be a 4 to 6 seed with a solid frontcourt.
I agree with Jeff regarding Francis. In certain 5-man motion games, it doesn't really matter if you field a pure point guard. We have the ability to get 5 assists from anyone, hence the two games in a row that KT gets 5 then 6 assists. Mobley gets 4. Yao get none, but we know he can get many. The Kings don't have a high assist PG either, because they distribute their assists. As long as Francis doesn't insist on clearing out and picks his moments, then we have a perfectly fine offense for fielding him as a point guard. <blockquote><hr>Originally posted by Mr. Clutch the team isn't showing the progress that everyone was hoping for. <hr></blockquote> I am really excited about the team, starting with the 2nd Quarter motion against Dallas. And I believe our new 5-man offense is progressing just nicely, and I think Larry Brown would agree. Individual stats are overrated. This team is trying to be a team that will beat you with different players based on how you defend the entire team. oh, and welcome back Mobley!!! Man, what a threat he is in a motion slashing game. Nice to see him get so many easy buckets. cheer up guys, the team offense is progressing well, and that is all that matter in the grand scheme of things.
Last year was the most hideous basketball Ive ever had to endure. Too much dribbling and ISO's. Anytime Kenny Thomas is a main go to option - that spells doom.
The board is familiar with Polonius' advice to his son Laertes but less familiar with his banter with Claude and Gertie.
Agreed. I think he causes the other team to have to guard him 1-1 and that gives us the spacing we need even if he is not scoring. It's a respect thing. Last night they didn't respect that early and got burned. They started guarding him and that opened things up for everyone else.
