WHO ELSE IS SICK TO DEATH OF ALL THIS TANKING BS?

TheFreak, I remember 91-92 well. I was upset we didn't make the playoffs...but I didn't for one second believe that Hakeem wasn't capable of being the alpha dog you could build around, because I'd already seen them do it in 1986. I was pissed off at what we thought might be a lack of effort, generally, from that squad. I remember listening to the one sports radio show in the afternoon talking about that. I was in the Summit at the draft party the night the Rockets selected Horry that offseason.

I do not recall why Hakeem failed to make the All NBA teams that season, especially considering his numbers were roughly the same as they were from the year before. He still averaged roughly 21 points and 12 rebounds along with 4 blocks per game.

My frustration with this franchise today isn't because of not making the playoffs one season. Nowhere close. With Hakeem, we knew we had a premier player that could be the best player on a team that went to the Finals. Again, that had already been demonstrated. The question was putting the right pieces around him. It took time to do that.

Right now we're putting together pieces around nothing. It's like building a house without starting with the foundation. Until we obtain a player of that caliber, we're going to be right where we are. Until Les wakes up and listens to Morey's suggestion that it's quicker to rebuild by losing than winning, we're going to be spinning our wheels....especially in an era where it seems you have to have a star to attract another.

I'm not really sure I understand what you're advocating for...who is the player with franchise player potential on this roster that you're suggesting I should be patient for? Who on this roster has the pedigree of any of the alpha dog/ALL NBA type game that we just need to fit the right pieces around?

 

No I think the point is you need a Alpha Dog, a Batman, a superstar, a franchise player, etc to win and this team does not have one. Who's going to trade us theirs? How many iPads do we need to send out to get one? No stud, no ring.

 

I think the late 80s/early 90s Rockets situation is probably more comparable to the last few years of Yao Ming's career: There is one player who has clear star-level talent, but the team couldn't manage to get over the hump in the hplayoffs. The main difference is that Hakeem stayed healthy long enough for the Rockets to acquire a good enough supporting cast and Yao Ming's body (not to mention McGrady's body) broke down just when Morey finally managed to assemble the right supporting pieces.

 

5 star. excellent.

 

Around '90 or '91, Hakeem did become disgruntled and there were rumors he would be traded to Miami for a package headlined by Rony Seikaly. Fortunately, the Rockets FO was smart enough to realize you never ever trade franchise players for non-franchise players unless you have a gun to your head. I'm still amazed we were able to get Clyde a few years later. I think the only reason was that Clyde was so beloved by the Portland FO and they wanted to do him a favor.

 

I agree.

Dwight Howard and Deron Williams both come off their contract this season. The Nets are living the dream that they might convince Deron to stay, same with Orlando it looks like. If they both walk in the offseason one of them might look at Houston really seriously and think they have a legit chance to win with a core of Martin, Scola and Lowry.

But I think the other key point to make about rebuilding is that it is a LOOONNGGG process. You certainly aren't garunteed or even likely to come out of it better than we are right now even. I guess it depends on what your level of success is. Because while what Chicago did worked... it also took them 10 years of mediocrity before they lucked into the 1st pick (they weren't a worst team in that lottery pool at the time).

However... what about Atlanta? Atlanta was in rebuild mode for like 10 years until they landed Joe Johnson. I don't think anyone is mistaking him for an alpha dog. What about Memphis? Nabbing Gay from us, and then trading for Randolph. Is Randolph an alpha dog? Sacramento basically rebuilt in the same way you want us to... getting rid of Martin. Getting the worst or second worst record for two years in a row and they end up picking 4th and then 5th and grabbing Evans and Cousins. Either of them looking like alpha dogs to you? The Warriors let Baron go and started over drafting Curry/Ellis and signing Lee... no alpha dogs there either.

My point is that when you go into a rebuild, it's just as much a shot in the dark as us hoping that Howard will choose to come here during free agency. The difference is, at least the way I get to see above .500 basketball, even if we get kicked out of the first round every year. Your way we'd be looking at 5 years of 20 game seasons most likely.

 

^ Oh I agree. It would be nice to pop in, get the next stud, and pop back out but history doesn't support that. I wrote earlier somewhere that I do believe that this will be a many year project (3-5 would be my estimate). And even when you have that stud under contract, most take a few more years to mature. But I also believe our FO is better than ATL (still don't see them as a contender, just a perpetual playoff team) and of course all the perennial losers (GSW, LAC, Kings, TWolves, etc) so I don't think we'd be down that long (some of those teams need to sew fins on their uniforms because they've been living in the tank for too long), but I do think it will be more than a 1 year "investment". Being bad at the right time is key and this year is a good year for that IMO. Sure there is a good chance that we just end up with another Robin - which is not so bad if he's a true Robin. Just might have to try for Batman again the next year. To guarantees, but I want a trophy for the goal and not a playoffs with the hope of a trophy.

 

I don't know if this has been said (it probably has), but the owner has been quoted as saying he wants to win. He doesn't want to just tear it down. But at the same time he's going to be smart about it.

I think what a lot of people might be worried about is if we can't grab a legit star FA or trade (even someone like Iggy would work) by next season... that we'll give Lee a 6 million dollar deal to keep him. Give Budd maybe a 4-6 million dollar deal to keep him. Pick up the options on a few players... and try again next season thinking that we can go somewhere with that team. Then when Martin's deal runs out we'll resign him to a 14 million dollar contract (which would actually be solid considering what others are getting, but still a bad idea).

They are right to worry about such a scenario... but it's not going to happen. The trap that teams get into when they rebuild is they take that step where there is no turning back because they'll be over the cap and limited with the moves they can make. And then next season they think adding someone for the MLE is what will get them over the hump and it only puts them in more trouble.

Because right now the Rockets are in a situation where they could easily go into rebuild mode if they have a bad year (if Lowry gets injured next week and is out for 2 months *knocks on wood*). But at the same time, you have a good team and can compete... there are a lot of players in the league that might take a serious look at us if we're fighting for the 4th or 5th seed by February when the trade deadline comes.

 

I'm sick to death of two years of mediocrity. But hey the Rocks are a .500 team chasing that #9 seed just like you guys want...

 

"Play the Games"

On a sidenote I cant remmeber any great franchise that tanked there way to greatness.

A losing culture will breed a losing franchise. Ask the Clippers. Every dog has there day but eventually that culture will take back over.
I'd rather the team make the Playoffs every year for twenty straight years and never win a NBA Title. Then win one and be irrevelant for 19 years.

You play to win, if you don't so be it . But you Play to win.

 

Three points to make about your statement:
A) Why can't we make a move to get better? People act like this is going to be the team we run into the playoffs with. We have cap flexibility and a lot of "assets". I know people don't like to use that word, but it's still true. If Cousins or Iggy or Granger get thrown on the trade block, why can't we be one of the top potential teams they go to?
B) We've had 2 picks in the last 2 years that were #14 picks in relatively weak draft. But I don't know why we are suddenly counting them out of our future. Martin was a late pick that turned into a nice player... definitely later than 14. Why can't Patterson take the next step and become that 4th option on our team? Why can't Morris? Now... I'm not expecting it to happen but you can't rule it out either.
C) You say you are sick of the team chasing 2 years of mediocrity. Are you then saying you'll be completely okay with the potentially 5+ years of 20-30 win ball that you would have to watch before we put another team together? And the fact of the matter is... now that we have cap flexibility, if we throw together even a .500 record when the trade deadline rolls around, people will look at our core and our "assets" and how we can win with guys making 25 million in salary total and think that this team might be one major player away. And we're back to point "A" that I made.

 

Well the Rockets did... the Spurs did.

That's not really the point though. Houston is the reason we have a lottery in the first place. If having the worst record in the league assured you the first pick I might be more for tanking. But San Antonio got lucky and they had Robinson injured so there was no point in trying for them.

But it can really bite you in the ass now too because Sacramento had one of the worst records in the league two years in a row and all it earned them was Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins... no top 3 picks. And thats worse than if they had completely missed with those picks IMO because now they are going to spend 2-3 years finding out whether or not these guys are the real deal or not. And I think both of them will be solid players, maybe make a few All-star teams but I'm not sure they will be guys that lead a team to a title.

And that's the worst fear when it comes to rebuilding. That you think you are building this badass team and 5 years later you realize you wasted your time and have to rebuild again.

 

One of those three would not be enough and what you subtract to add a player like Cousins or Granger puts you not that much further ahead. The Spurs added Duncan without losing anyone, just tanking a season. The rest is history.

Again a 4th option or 3rd is not enough. PPat, Scola, Brooks these are great complimentary players when we had Yao and T-Mac. But without truely elite players we are stuck in limbo. I hate to bring up the Spurs again but adding late round gems like Ginobli and Parker to elite players like Duncan and Robinson is the plan that everyone knows works and it's what Morey delivered. Injuries cest la vie..... We don't need more 3rd and 4th options we need elite players and just like Hakeen, Yao, Robinson, and Duncan you only get those players by drafting them #1 overall or at least in the top 5.

I think the Rockets have great assets but you need two things. One to trade for an upgrade star vet like Dwight Howard and two add to a Howard a young blue chip from the draft. Ideally we tank this season, somehow acquire Howard via trade or outright signing and get a top 5 pick. Lowry, Howard, and the top 5 pick make up your core. Morey has more than shown he can add great 3rd and 4th options like a Lee or Scola to that group.

The key is you have to have the cheap talent that only costs you a bad season that a top pick provides.

 

I was advocating tanking two years ago and the year before that, not tanking is just delaying the inevitable. .500 ball is crap I would much rather watch .100 ball and see Kyrie Irving and John Wall/Cousins on this squad today.

It's the nontankers that are the spoiled ones. Wanting playoff seasons every year, pro tankers are more than willing to see really bad teams and pay our dues for the eventual payoff.

 

Oops meant the year after that........

 

Iggy is the guy that I'm looking at the Rockets trading for. If Philly is mostly out of playoff contention in a month, they might start looking for the future. And yeah...we might have to subtract a player. But it would most likely be something like Patterson/Morris + maybe Lee and maybe a pick. They wouldn't be looking to trade for Lowry/Scola/Martin. And if you trade a Morris or Patterson based package for Iggy.

Usually when a team is looking to get younger and clear space, it's not a talent for talent trade. For example, a few years ago the Warriors traded Stephen Jackson for who was it... Raja Bell and Vladamir Radmanovic. Butler and Haywood were traded to the Mavs for Josh Howard (basically an expiring contract at that point). Marcus Camby was basically given to the Blazers by Denver. We got Kevin Martin for Carl Landry and McGrady's expiring. And so on. We can nab a player like Iggy for cheap in a trade.

It's kind of hard to really argue against your point because the Piston were the only team that was ever really successful with the "all-5" approach. And lets not give Billups more credit than he was due. Sure, he was a high pick, but a few years after he was drafted no one ever mistook him for the great HOF level type of player that he turned out to be for the Pistons. And other than DPOY level play from Ben Wallace they really didn't have anyone special.

The Suns are another good example. I believe Amare was picked like 8th or 10th or somewhere kind of outside the top 5. Again, no one was mistaking him for a HOF caliber player that was going to lead his team to a title. After all, he misses a year and they still are a top seed. And the same with Nash. The guy had a few "alpha dog" years and yet early in his career no one would have ever imagined that's what he'd end up being.

So I guess while you have a point in that the "all-five" approach generally doesn't work. It HAS been successful to different degrees in the past. And to be fair, it hasn't been tried that often either.

If we tank though. Why would Howard want to sign with us.

Really, I honestly think that's our only shot. We trade for Iggy or someone similar at the trade deadline and make a push for a top seed the rest of the season. We come into the offseason with a solid 20 million in cap space. We can use that to make a serious push for Howard.

If that doesn't work (or perhaps a similar plan for another big we aren't thinking of). I think that's when you make the decision to officially rebuild. That or if February comes around and we are getting our asses handed to us with like a 10-20 record and just looking bad in general. I wouldn't mind seeing us trade Kevin Martin to the Twolves for like... one of their young guys (Beasley, Johnson, whoever). Then maybe next offseason we nab Eric Gordon in free agency after making their Twolves pick useless for the ultimate F.U. to New Orleans.

 

The problem is that odds are instead of Kyrie Irving and John Wall and Cousins. It's easily just as likely you end up with Evan Turner and Thabeet. Both #2s... or hell, it doesn't even have to be a #2. We could have the 4th worst record in the league and end up picking #6 and grab the next Randy Foye.

I mean, I have more faith in our scouting team than that but no matter how good you scout, sometimes players turn out to be busts. It happens.

 

@Philly: I really appreciate that you are coming at this logically rather than just the same emotional response others seem to take like "u gais are tards, we could tots get the #1 next year and win a title in 13'"