[CHRONIC] If no season, Rockets may overhaul roster

ok then we agree on something then...

 

I am sure we agree on a lot of things. I will bet you like the Houston Rockets !



DD

 

touche' lol

 

Any realistic scenario involving adding two superstars (heck, probably even one max contract) would necessitate the Rockets renouncing their rights to Thabeet and Flynn, at the very least, unless they agreed to quickly re-sign for near-minimum deals.

Easier said than done in "dropping" Scola. I don't think the Rockets would amnesty cut Scola in 2012 (with likely between $20-30M left on his deal). And trading Scola for "expiring contracts" wouldn't work, since those expiring contracts would eat up the cap room necessary to acquire the superstars. You'd have to trade him to a team like Sacramento that is WAYYYY under the cap, in exchange for a second rounder. On principle alone, I could see Morey and Les balking at such a deal. I'm not saying it couldn't be done. Just that it will be a lot tougher to trade Scola without taking back salary than many realize.

If Paul or D-Will was being acquired, the logical move would be to use Lowry as part of a sign-and-trade package with NO/NJ.

I know. I was just pointing out how ludicrous a situation it would take for the Rockets to actually "tank" next year. I do agree with your "most likely tanking scenario", though. Mine was just in the context of this current roster.

Agreed. I think at least one superstar (if not both) would need to be acquired via sign-and-trade. It would probably have to be a "Miami situation", though, in order to have the leverage not to completely empty the cupboards to make those deals. I'm sure the Hornets would rather have Lowry (on a very reasonable contract for another 2 years) than lose Paul for nothing to the likes of New York.

Then, trade a couple of future firsts (or agree to "swap" picks) with Orlando in exchange for Howard. If Lowry is swapped for Paul and all other free agent renounced, there should be enough room.

Also, FYI, under the league's latest proposal re: cap hold changes (which, according to all reports, was agreeable to the union), Courtney Lee's cap hold would be approx. $5.5M until he is re-signed. With several teams very interested in Lee and willing to offer him a starting job, I doubt he "settled" for $3.2M with the Rockets. (I'm assuming you were looking at his qualifying offer amount on a salary site. That amount wouldn't govern his affect on the Rockets' cap, though. Also, according to the league's latest proposal and further depending on how much playing time he gets next season, Lee's qualifying offer amount may actually go up.)

 

BimaThug is my hero

BimaThug - I sincerely appreciate your thoughtful analysis to this otherwise bummer of an offseason/lockout.

 

A lot of this "cap room" stuff is really fluid now. For example, if the NBA really goes back to its 47% "reset" offer and is able to force the players to accept it, the actual (soft) cap will likely be affected. Also, there is the question of whether existing contracts will be "rolled back." (And then there's Stern saying that the end of union = cancellation of all contracts. Doubt it will happen, but... Free Agency BONANZA!!! )

 

True enough. I'm working off the assumption that some compromise will be reached to re-institute the league's last proposal with a few minor tweaks. I think (or at least I HOPE) the whole disclaimer of interest mess will cause the owners to back off their "reset" offer and continue working on the offer that almost got agreed to, instead.

Wishful thinking, I know. But at least THAT offer was (mostly) negotiated and agreed to in several respects by both sides.

 

If you have to let Lee go to sign two superstars while keeping Martin and Scola, you do that in a heartbeat. If you sign Deron he can play some 2 for you with Lowry at PG.

 

I don't think you can have two superstars, Martin, Scola and Lowry on the team at the same time if you need to give both superstars the max.

You're right about Lee, though. Love the guy, but I wouldn't hold up getting two superstars over him.

 

The thing with Lee is he and Howard are friends. Thats part of my pitch to Howard if I am the Rockets. I would even trade for Josh Smith for the same reason.

 

Lee and Howard are friends true. If either player is following their friend, it would be Lee joining Howard's team not the other way around. Lee is just a roleplayer. Howard is the one with options.

 

And Lowry probably makes more than you'd want to pay a backup in the new NBA. You might need to trade him to some team under the cap.

 

I just tweeted Courtney Less this, and got a reponse :grin: Looks like hes putting in work



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And I think you're overestimating how many losses it takes to get a top 5 pick.

My scenario was basically not resign Hayes and trade Scola for either a bag of chips or possible a low 1st round pick. This ensures a horribly deep hole in the middle and the Rockets will be forced to use the moronic combo of Thabeet and Hill at center. Which alone will cost us many, many games. And can be spinned as "development".

And top 5 is kind of a just a generic saying. If you want a more accurate draft positioning, I'd say more pick 7-8 with a solid chance of moving to the top 3. That's what I think we can reasonably expect. Also, while this would certainly be risk, ANY direction the Rockets go will be risk. Even betting on Dwight Howard is a risk. Choosing to retool while trying to win is a risk. Choosing among all the risks, I personally think the lottery risk is actually the safest bet long term wise.

I want to add I personally prefer no season at all all the above scenarios from the Rockets long term health. A lost season would mean 2 years worth of FAs on the market, in which case lesser FAs like Nene or Gasol would be more likely to choose the Rockets' capspace. A lost season also means some sort of lottery that factors in multiple seasons in the past, which would increase the stock of the Knicks pick. And finally, I feel as a well-run organization, a lost season likely will result in all the hardliners winning in terms of keeping competitive balance, which I feel will finally reward prudence.

 

Sell it, C-Lee! Someone needs to put Lee's head on the Morey pic.

 

Stern just fined Courtney Lee for tempering.

 

I say Keep Patterson, Lowry, and Kevin Martin. Those are the guys that surely adds alot in their Game. Reason why not scola is we all know he wants to win a championship and since we are rebuilding, let him be on a winning team.

 

Someone else has dibs on that!

Spoiler

 

I think our best bet is to trade Lowry, Scola, and Patterson for Chris Paul, then sign Howard outright in the summer. You can fill in around Paul, Howard, and Martin with young players and ring chasing vets.

 

Under the league's last proposal (at least with respect to what I THINK was agreeable to the players), I think the sign-and-trade route will become even MORE engrained as "the way to go" to acquire any superstar. Under the new CBA, the overall percentage increase in contract size by being signed and traded, as opposed to signing outright, will be greater than under the prior CBA. Also, it looks like the annual raise % gap will increase slightly between the two approaches.

Hence, I'm thinking that unless Orlando or New Jersey absolutely refuse (guessing that the league-owned Hornets wouldn't), it will take a sign-and-trade deal to acquire any of the top 3 free agents next summer.