[CHRONIC] If no season, Rockets may overhaul roster

BimaThug

The rocket approach for attracting free agents failed in Morey time. I do not think we can even get Nene this time either. To me, we do not have a foundation for a superstar to come for a NBA title. It is a time to rebuild the team sooner than later after Yao and Tmac.

 

I respectfully disagree about "the Rocket approach" failing during Morey's time.

I had said from Day 1 (as in, long before the summer of 2010) that Morey's big move would likely come via trade, either in the summer of 2010 or at the February 2011 trade deadline. However, once it became apparent that he couldn't get Melo or Deron Williams, Morey instead traded Aaron Brooks and Shane Battier (two good players who were going to leave in free agency seven weeks later, since Morey was not going to clog the Rockets' cap with too-large deals on decent but not great players) for more contracts that expire in 2012, a better free agent class than 2011, anyway. With all of their expiring contracts and more youth, Morey is better positioned to make a trade in 2012 (either at the trade deadline, if there is a season, or next summer) than he was in 2011.

The summer of 2012 will be the first time in a LOOOOONG time that the Rockets are expected to ACTUALLY clear cap space. Barring a trade for more decent players who all have contracts expiring in 2013, next summer really should be THE time for Morey to implement "the Rockets approach" to rebuidling.

Let's just hope that a top free agent has the sense to realize that the quality of the roster that Morey has put together (all core guys--except for maybe Courtney Lee--will still be under contract), combined with the money available to sign in Houston outright, represents one of the best possible situations in the NBA for such a player.


As an aside, my gut tells me that Chris Paul is going to go to New York next summer to play with Melo, Amare and 10 guys from the YMCA.

If the Magic don't bite on a sign-and-trade with the Lakers for Bynum, Dwight--who then won't have the option of joining forces with CP3--will be faced with a choice that should include the Magic (of course), the Rockets, the Nets (assuming D-Will stays there) or the Clippers as the most attractive options.

 

Help me out here...have there been any top level players in the past 5 years who opted to sign or get traded to a team simply because they made it to the playoffs?

It seems as if players are going to teams that have cap space and flexibility to acquire multiple big name free agents. Melo, Amare, Bosh, Wade, and Lebron all chose to stay or get moved to teams that didn't make the playoffs. Melo, Amare, and Lebron all left teams that made the playoffs.

That being said we are setup good for 2012, but it's only Dwight, D-Will, CP3 that are going to be out there. One of those two point guards is going to the Knicks to team up with Melo and Amare IMO. Then a Bynum for Howard swap only makes sense. Howard gets to go to a winning team and Orlando gets a young talented center. Maybe Orlando will wises up and realize Bynum is an injury prone malcontent and doesn't bite on the deal, but I doubt that will happen. They love making bad decisions with a lot of money.

Anyhow, I don't see top tier guys wanting to come to Houston. We don't have any stars. Stars are clearly what seems to matter if you want to acquire talent...not simply making it to the first round.

 

oddly enough, i could care less whether or not Thabeet, TWill, Flynn, and Hill are reupped. The only free agents of ours that i want locked up are Dragic and Lee.

With Scola, Martin, Lowry, Dragic, Patterson, and Lee (along with our rookies...Morris, etc.) I would feel comfortable that we'd be competitive. Obviously we still have the glaring problem of Center, but hopefully we'd find a way to address that in the offseason. It's hard to see a pathway where next year we are a championship team. Adding Howard to that core could do it ...but baring that it appears we are several moves away still.

 

There are some key distinctions from the examples you give:

First of all, the Lebron/Bosh/Wade situation is something that basically has NEVER happened before. Asking for other examples is a moot point.

Amare went to New York for the money, which Phoenix wasn't willing to give to him. Fortunately for him(?), Melo forced his way off a better team to go soak in the spotlight in NYC. At this point, I wouldn't blame a guy like CP3 for wanting to go to New York to play with those two.

As for "leaving playoff teams", those teams were obviously not playoff teams WITHOUT those star players. It is an entirely different proposition when you are talking about joining a team that is ALREADY a playoff team and is keeping all of its core players while dropping all of its dead weight contracts at the same time.

Again, the Miami situation was different in that the Heat pretty much only kept Wade, maneuvered to keep Haslem and Joel Anthony, and literally dumped EVERYONE ELSE. Moreover, in order to get Lebron and Bosh a little larger initial salary, the Heat dumped a recent #2 overall pick for a couple of second rounders; and in order to get Lebron and Bosh larger annual raises, the Heat sold off/swapped all of their future first round picks.

While Houston doesn't boast a star like Wade, it does boast a complement of (1) very good players (Martin, Scola, Lowry), (2) some good young talent (Patterson, Budinger, Morris) and (3) solid draft picks/prospects (NYK pick, Llull, Motiejunas), plus Houston has all of its own future first round picks except for one lottery-protected pick owed to New Jersey.

When you add all that up, while it's not the once-in-a-lifetime situation to have THREE superstars on one team, those factors should mean something to top free agents. Few other teams offer that combination of competitive advantages. Maybe the Clippers? But who wants to deal with Donald Sterling as your owner for the next five years?

(And to answer your first question, while it wasn't in the last 5 years, there was much talk that Tim Duncan gave a long, hard look at Orlando--in no small part because it was competitive and could add two superstars--before finally choosing to be loyal to San Antonio and re-sign there. This was pretty close to happening, actually. Only after Duncan balked did Orlando sign both Grant Hill and T-Mac. The plan--which was almost successful--was to add Duncan and either Hill or McGrady, likely Hill.)

 

If we are lucky enough to land Howard, we need to resign Chuck, so that he can teach him to play defense .

 

I actually doubt that Morey hangs on to Goran Dragic beyond 2012. Dragic will probably play well enough to ask for a relatively sizeable contract. With Sergio Llull waiting in the wings--and, more importantly, taking up $0 in cap room next summer--and with other options available for less money, I just don't see Morey paying the price for Dragic. My hunch was (if there was a season played) that Dragic would play well in the first half of the season, and then Morey would use the trade deadline to deal Dragic for a future pick and elevate Flynn to Lowry's backup.

Courtney Lee, on the other hand, will be an interesting decision.

One interesting tidbit I took away from the league's last proposal to the union was that certain cap holds would be decreased, namely for first round picks coming off the fourth year of their rookie deals. Rather than such cap holds being 300%/250% of the prior year's salary (for players making EDIT: Below/Above the average salary), those cap holds would decrease to 250%/200%.

Assuming that the Rockets desired to keep Lee, this rule change could actually increase their "pre-re-signing-Lee" cap room by about $1.1M. Lee's cap hold under the prior CBA was scheduled to be approx. $6.6M. Under the new rule, it would be approx. $5.5M. Of course, if the Rockets could get Lee to quickly agree to a new deal starting at under $5.5M in the first year, and if it wouldn't preclude the Rockets from what they want to do in free agency, then re-signing Lee first (and getting his cap figure below the $5.5M mark) would be the way to go.

Just a shred of Rockets cap-related information to tide you over until the next time the two sides meet.

 

Interesting that the Williams trade has the New Jersey obligation "hanging over" the Rockets like a rotten fruit. As far as I'm concerned, that trade is Morey's biggest blunder to date. Maybe a light bulb will go off in that "brain" of Williams, and he'll use that amazing athleticism for more than stroking his ego, but based on what I've seen so far, I'm not the least bit optimistic.

 

Agreed. I will say, though, that it may have been a little better had Terrence been able to actually PLAY for the Rockets for more than bits of 11 games. However, that was mostly Terrence's fault for not being quiet, humble and patient.

The Terrence Williams trade is a key example, on multiple different fronts, why tanking next season is not going to happen and would not even be an effective strategy.

On the one hand, for Morey to agree to give up a lottery-protected pick out to 2016, after seeing how other teams have been hamstrung by such obligations (including the Knicks, of which Morey took full advantage), it seems as if the most practical plan was to WIN in 2011-12 (to the extent there was a season), get that obligation out of the way, then clear the decks in 2012, while still getting a first rounder from New York.

On a separate note, Terrence Williams epitomizes why--unless you are a pathetically bad team--tanking usually doesn't work out. Unlike guys like Jordan Hill and Hasheem Thabeet (who Morey likely did not like at the spots they were taken but still thought were good enough to "buy low"), Terrence Williams was a guy who Morey had in the top-10 on his draft board in 2009 (Williams ended up going #11 to New Jersey, long before the Rockets could have gotten him).

THAT is what a top-10 draft pick is, fellas.

Even a talent evaluator as good as Morey (who most would agree is at leat well above average) won't nail every top-10 pick. And aside from a small handful of "can't-miss" prospects each year, the top 10 picks in any draft are littered with guys who never panned out.

Frankly, I'd prefer not to waste away a season sucking in order to get the next Charlie Villanueva.

 

Well said. It's such a crap shoot. I don't expect Morey to nail every pick or make out like a bandit on every trade for young talent, but what bugs me is that Morey had the time Williams had with the Nets to further evaluate the guy, and still got him. I never saw what he apparently saw. William's had a couple of Kelvin Cato-like summer league moments (in my opinion) with the Nets during the regular season, but not much else. For that you trade a future 1st and hamstring the club going forward? Maybe he'll still work out, but I'll be stunned if he does. As you speculated, I also expect him to get the Nets their pick as soon as he's able, in a way that makes sense.

 

So the fact that the roster currently has several '09 picks is pure coincidental. It has nothing to do with the fact that their contracts could possibly come off the books at the exact same time.
No offense, but before you tell us what Morey's favorite tie is, his favorite color, and how he likes his coffee, please indulge us the thoughts of Hasheem Thabeet playing in a motion offense? These guys aren't even people, they are contracts. There is no "development" with this group, there is the notion of "you are a Rocket until your contract is up or I trade your arse again." And if you think tanking will land you a Charlie Villanueva, you need to think again, especially in the '12 draft.

 

if there were a season to tank it would be this one. a shortened season with that draft class.

and thats exactly what i expect them to do to at least some extent.

they will hopefully get at least a middle round or late teens pick from the knicks and along with inflated stats from playing the young players and upping the value of those players with those stats. using those 2 picks with those players to either move up in the draft or to do some type of sign and trade or a little of both.

 

First off, I'm not exactly in love with your tone here (I say in full Geico Caveman fashion). :grin:

Second, you'll get little argument from me about Morey's view on players that are not crucial (in his mind) to the success of the team going forward. He DOES tend to view many of them as contracts . . . ASSETS, if you will.

But to your rebuttal to my original point, are you trying to tell me that Daryl Morey traded a future first round pick (which could not be conveyed until 2012 at the earliest and likely would not have counted against the Rockets' cap at all in 2012) in order to acquire a contract that expires in 2012? Are you saying that Morey wanted to pay Terrence Williams to be added to the roster, and to pay Sacramento to take a cheaper player who the Rockets actually did like (Jermaine Taylor) just so that Williams's ~$2.3M salary could come off the books 18 months later? That contract wasn't even large enough to make much of a difference in accumulating expiring contracts for salary matching purposes in trades.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the Terrence Williams trade, moreso than any other trade for a 2009 lottery pick, was about the player's talent rather than his contract.

EDIT: And another thing. The league is going to try pretty hard to move the age limit up to 20 in the new CBA. If they succeed, then the 2012 Draft will be highly diluted at the top of the lottery, and the 2013 Draft would become the real prize.

 

tel me if Im right
if there is no 2011-2012 season, in 2012 it will be 2 years free agents(double) plus the amnesty players and the rockets will have a los of space if lee and budinger will be the only resing players?

 

Yes, although (1) the new CBA may provide a special waiver system for amnesty cuts and (2) the Rockets have a dirt-cheap team option on Budinger for 2012-13 that they will likely exercise.

 

I just revisited my post and realized I forgot to add in the key point. It's not just about having a top pick. It's about having the value of the top pick. NJ centered on a trade for DWill for its 3rd pick. Celtics netted Ray Allen with its 5th pick. There's a huge value for draft picks which generally doesn't apply to young players. You can get a ton of value for a high pick that doesn't come from going to the playoffs. So you're right. Dwight Howard may not care to pair up with John Wall or Derrick Williams. But the Rockets could turn the pick into a player he does value.

And regardless, I still don't think either path will likely net us a top FA. I'd say 1% at most regardless of the direction the Rockets choose. So it really shouldn't be a factor. If we go for wins, the future should be based on us not getting a top tier FA. Perhaps a 2nd tier one like a Nene or Gasol as they get crammed with the top FAs next year. But certainly not CP3/DWill/Dwight.

 

Amare went to the Knicks for the money and because New York City is New York City. Further, he felt like the Knicks would be able to land another superstar level player. So there were other factors than Amare just getting paid. Eventually, they ended up getting Melo after striking out on the big 3. NYC was always going to have a very strong chance at landing Melo, because of his ties to the area and having Amare further solidified Melo's desire to go there. And yes I do think Melo going to NYC over NJ was a favor that was done for Melo by Denver. So it took another star player, hometown discount, and the chance at landing another superstar in 2012 to get Melo there. I think NY certainly has favorable odds at acquiring a 3rd superstar because they already have 2 and cap space.

Moving to NJ's deal for a superstar, which clearly had more value than the Knicks. They traded a very young #3 pick big man with tons of potential and a likely high picks for a superstar in D-Will. That's a pretty damn good deal for Utah IMO. We don't have a guy who is oozing potential and high picks to trade and we don't have a superstar to lure players here.

As a side note, I guarantee you if Donald Sterling wasn't the owner of the Clippers then the Clippers would be VERY high on the priority list of Howard, CP3, and D-Will. Why? Blake Griffin and that huge LA spotlight.

We've got some nice players, but we don't have any top tier guys like a prime T-Mac or a healthy Yao. I don't think CP3 or D-Will are going to stick their necks out to come to our rebuilding effort unless we have Howard locked up to a max contract...chances of that slim to none.

The theme being that these guys aren't going to leave their situations unless they can be paired up with another superstar and we don't have one. I don't think there is any evidence indicating that they will leave for a team without a superstar either. Also, don't you think there is a decent possibility that they just exercise the last year of their player options depending on how the new max contract situation is?

Anyhow, I'm hoping that Morey can wrangle one of these crazy deals and somehow convince Howard and Paul or Williams to come here, but I am afraid we are just stuck in the middle. At least Morey has complete roster flexibility now that the Yao saga is over and I hope he can work some magic. Key word in all that....hope.

 

I think the hand writing is on the wall that CP3 is going to NY next summer. NY is saving all the cap room to sign him and CP3 can play with 2 super stars to go against Miami.

I don't think Orlando will trade DHoward for Bynum. They cant even trade him if we dont have a 2011-12 season. I actually think DH may go to Celtics. Boston have plenty of cap room next summer with Ray Allen and Garnett off the books and they can offer DH a max contract. They will still have Pierce and Rondo, plus Ray Allen and Garnett may be willing to come back for at least another year for a reduced salary after they signed DH.

I am not holding my hopes high for us to land any super stars next summer. We should focus on trading for the 2nd tier stars like Granger, AI, Al Jefferson........

 

If that happens the East is going to be a nightmare...and the West will get easier...Yippeee !

DD

 

We will still be a 14th seed every year.

We either need Superman to save us or blow this **** up and start over!