Early Season Observations... THE GOOD * Cato's performance thus far has been heart-warming, and almost brings back the impression of untapped upside he represented a couple of years back...Some big men do take time to develop...Either way, his play and even more his attitude this year have been remarkable. * Steve's scoring has been generally elite-level this year. Yeah, he's been jacking it up...but he's been filling it up too...Whether or not that is a good idea will be addressed a little further down, hint-hint, but the scoring in and of itself has been great. * J-Hawk has been a pleasant surprise thus far. He has been our best perimeter defender by a country mile, even though he has gotten absolutely no respect from the refs, and has been the kind of scrappy defensive player the Rox haven't had around much recently. * Mo-T looked pretty good in his brief time so far, and even Rice has had moments of unexpected diversity.Amidst all the bad ones and more often lack of ones, Mobley has pulled off a few nice passes this year. Yao Ming has looked quite good in stretches, despite very limited and inconsistent pt... THE BAD * Consistency has been a noticable problem this year...This can be expected from a team as young as the Rockets, but it still needs to be addressed. Most of the games thus far have seen the Rockets have periods of great play followed inexplicably by the wheels just falling off...Some times we have recovered, some times not, but it's been really up and down. * Kenny has had one great game, but has otherwise played like a combination of a player who is playing for a contract ( ie. selfishly) and a player who should be ( ie. stupidly). * Ming's defensive adjustment to the speed of the NBA game needs work. He seems overwhelmed at times, as can be expected...I am totally convinced that A) This is his area of greatest weakness so far, and B) This can only be corrected with playing in games. In this area in particular there is absolutely no substitute for game-time minutes. A quick review of the numbers backs this up... A) If you want a player to develop into an All-Star, the numbers suggest you invest time in him...Of all the current players who have achieved this level, their average minutes/game during their rookie years was well over 25. B) If you assume that Ming, being a foreign player, has a greater adjustment than your average college grad, I'll say ok, and look at the numbers for 1st year foreign players of any distinction...The average 1st year mpg numbers for the 11 foreign trained ( foreign born & no US college exp.) players who have achieved starter status is 23.6...If you say that some of these guys were vets, I'll counter by saying that some are also younger than Yao Ming, but go ok, remove the likes of Rebracca, Kukoc, etc, and am left with...24.4. C) If you say that China doesn't quite measure up to the level of play that most of the other guys have seen before coming over, I'll say ok..let's look at high school players...It's hard to get any less 'prepared' than that...Of the 9 HS players who have achieved anything approaching starting roles, their average 1st year numbers are 18.4...and this is an average of guys who are usually about 3 years younger than Yao Ming, and of that group the only 2 who averaged less than Ming is right now are Jermaine O'Neal, who was buried behind a little more than Cato and Collier, lead to his asking out, and still maintains that he should have played more, and Rashard Lewis who had health and personal concerns that limited his 1st year...Even high schoolers like McGrady and Bryant who were intentionally brought along slowly, and 'protected' averaged more than Yao Ming is...and they were 18. So what does all this tell us about Ming? That unless you assume that all the above guys, All Stars, foreigners, or high schoolers came in perfect, and needed no improvement, than the numbers show that virtually all the other coaches in the league recognize that you have to play the guys you are building around in their rookie years if you want them to develop. This crap about earning minutes is easily seen to be just that..it's supposed to be about learning, not earning. Where and when is Yao Ming supposed to earn his minutes? Where and when is he supposed to learn to play defense at game speed? And on top of all that, there has been no correlation between the level of his play and his minutes...He had his best game against Phoenix and got...14 minutes, his average. His best performances have all been marked by him sitting a lot after playing well...so where is the result of 'earning'? And all this at a time when the situation, ie Cato out, would at least dictate a more open mind to 'earning'. It is quite apparent that Rudy's pattern of only playing rookies when you have to is continuing. * In much the same vein, Eddie Griffin is still showing growing pains that, if we believe he is part of our foundation, might have been better served with more pt last year. I have no doubt that he will grow, but it's not going to be a smooth ride. * Team defense started out ok, but has reverted to form for too many stretches on too many nights. It should also be noted that while the reverse is also true, the Rockets have been hit pretty hard by quality opposing point guards, with Marbury and Payton leaping immediatley to mind. THE UGLY * Moochie Norris has, by and large, played so poorly this year that I usually spend my time with him on the floor cringing and praying to the basketball gods that it will pass quickly. * The problem with the guard dominated offense, especially with a shoot-first pg was demonstrated last night: On the nights when Francis is shooting the lights out, you can beat other teams, but when Francis is off you can lose to lesser teams because no one really else gets the chance to compensate for Steve's off night. This is why point guard is different...If another position were our dominant scorer, and he were having an off night, there would already have been other players involved in the offense who could then try and take over...also, the decision wouldn't be in the hands of the guy having the bad night...What can Griffin do, for example, to compensate if Stevie is off but still keeping the ball and jacking it up? Also we are still taking way too many shots in only one of three ways: 1) Steve keeps ball and tries to beat man while others watch. 2) Steve passes to Mobley or Thomas who try to beat man while others watch. or 3) Steve, Moochie, or Cuttino keeps ball until last few seconds on clock, and then pass to teammate who has to put up rushed shot. The fact that Steve, and to a degree Cuttino have often been successfull at numbers 1 and 2 doesn't make it a correct strategy...It breaks down too easily, and leads to sloppy and lazy team play.
Great analysis Macbeth. I'm also concerned with Francis trying to do too much by himself.He made big mistakes which resulted him in crashing with Wallace and also Langhi. Langhi did foul him but I don't think he deserved a flagrant.
All I have to say is feed the Franchies. He's too talented to play tenative on the court. Once everybody realizes that around here, you will all see great things from our Rockets. Let the dream-casting begin...
Whats up McBeth ? How do you like it in Toronto? How about them Raptors.. Are you going to see any Rocket games this year..?
1) It's fine...but cold. 2) How about them? Without Carter they're nothing... 3) Yes...not in Houston, unfortunately, but am flying down to watch the Rockets a few times in the NE area... the best way to deal with sarcasm is to treat it literally...it loses it's wind...
A note about Ming. He's a bit different from most high school kids. He hasn't had a chance to learn the system yet due to missing most of summer camp and the preseason. Also, he's also much more fatigued than those players you've mentioned coming into this season. Also, I think Ming would get more minutes if the Rockets weren't really competing for anything. Rudy has to worry about winning along with helping to develop Ming.
The first point may be valid, but the last one is becoming one of those mantras which people say over and over until they're accepted as truth...of the foreign players examined in the mpg look were several on teams with at least as good, if not better, immediate aspirations as the Rockets...Kirelenko, Kukoc, Parker, Turkoglu, Stojakovic etc.
You may be right about my 2nd point. But could it be that those players were more 'prepared' than Ming entering the season?
MacBeth, Interesting points on the MPG comparisons. One thing you are forgetting tho. These players that you cite averaged these MPG for the entire season not the first 7 games. For instance, Eddie Griffin averaged 26 MPG last season but his averages for the first month were way less than that. The trend with these young rookies is that the minutes tend to pick up through the course of the season as they get more acclimated to the league (Im talking about a general trend not an exact increase every month b/c sometimes they see a temporary drop in late Dec or early Jan due to rookie wall.) It is crazy to expect a rookie that missed 90% of traning camp and preseason to immediately walk in and average 25 MPG during the first 7 games. I'd be suprised if Yao's average in the final 40 games is only 14 MPG. The point about Moochie.... I agree 100%. A huge part of the offensive ineptitude imo is Moochie's horrid play. I cant find one area where his game has improved and feel that it has actually regressed (ie perimeter shot looks worse). The Rockets would be much better off with a veteran guard backing up Steve and Cuttino that knows how to push the break and distribute.
MacBeth, You mention how the Rockets been hit pretty hard by point guards. Well we have been hit even harder by the small forward position. Shawn Marion and Rashard Lewis; do those players ring a bell. You made some valid points, but those two players had a great game against the Rockets. Marbury had a terrible shooting game, and just was blessed ("It was a gift from God". Marbury statement about the shot he made to beat the Rockets).
Kudos. With the potential talent we have, lesser players, in comparison to Steve, need to be given the chance, every game, to step up and be a consistant score and be given consistant shot opportunites. The open shots are consitantly there when Steve penetrates. Steve had to learn to trust his teamates more, even if they go 1-7, just like they will still trust him when hes 5-18.
I agree with most points, but the Rockets are looking to make it to the playoffs, so they can not afford to let Ming learn on the court (I know this would be best for Ming), though I don't understand keeping him off the court last night when he was playing well and having an impact. Opposing teams seem to be distracted by his presence on the court and we shoudl use that to our advantage.
