glynch - to address your points: 1) The CPI - You are correct that a small difference compounded over 50 years is huge. (That is why most private pension funds offer tham so rarely.) I still stick by my assumption however. Since I was using an "average" salary, it should follow inflation trends. Since, historically, social security benefits do not keep up with inflation rates, I think the 1% spread between wage increases and benefits is about right. (If anything, I would guess my error is the other direction from what you think, but this is just a guess). This text is an edit: I looked a bit and I am not sure how well Social Security keeps up with inflation. (There are different measures of inflation.) The spread between wage growth and benefit increases still seems logical though. Pre-retirement income (wages) does tend to increase more quickly then post-retirement income (SS benefits) 2) Disability - I am sorry you feel I was being disengenuos. I can assure you I am trying to use what little knowledege I have of the subject to "enlighten", not to slant towards my views. That said, I did not mean that the benefit was of no value. I was just saying that replacing my disability assumption with a zero disability assumption ( zero chance of becoming disabled) did little to affect the final ROR. I probably did not explain that very clearly. 3) You are right that insurance companies do not offer affordable disability insurance to high risk groups. Group disability insurance rates however, are small The government is overpaying for this benefit. 4) Ditto on group life insurance. 5) You mentioned a fifteen year pig (zero growth) market. Since most working lifetimes are much longer than fifteen years, the growth preceding or following any slow periods will outweigh them. There is no 30 year period in the history of the market with returns as low as 1.50% I hope I am not being a snit here. I certainly respect the desire to provide well for those who cannot do so for themselves. I have the same desire. I do however, believe that the current delivery of such help is terribly inefficient.
