Daryl Morey & Sam Hinkie: Moneyball and the Houston Rockets

Funny that this was the first year they got their money's worth from most of their players, something you couldn't argue in seasons past.

 

Yeah, all you need is ONE player, but you also only get ONE pick a year barring trades. You and DD can sit in your armchair and talk about risks all day long because you aren't the one who'll be getting the pink slip if you end up picking Saer Sene, Rober Swift and some random dude 3 years in a row based on "potential".

You talk about risks all day long but there's actually no risk involved in what you're doing, DD for example if he'd been the Rox GM would have taken Hassan Whiteside over Patrick Patterson based on "potential". A year later and where would we be, PP is off collecting doubledoubles in some other team while Hassan Whiteside is still geting 4 minutes of pt a night due to foul trouble.

Really, the point is you guys keep b****ing about the theory, but you have no concrete examples to back it all up. What "risky" player did we pass on the past 4 years that turned out to be a star? The only draft miss I recall is passing Deandre Jordan in favor of "next gen center" Whathisname, but considering Deandre Jordan was an unknown and not exactly brimming with potential at the time I don't see why anybody would pick that crap and run with it. And even if you included that, we have Scola, Brooks, PP, Landry and C-bud all obtained via crap resources or drafted with low picks. Weigh all that against missing out on De Andre Jordan and I think based on results I'd rather choose the Rox methodology.

 

Being a contender every year is pretty good, right?

Championships are about being a contender, then breaking through, but if you never get to that stage, when do you break through?

You have to contend first.

DD

 

You do realize that the Mavericks utilize alot the very same analytical techniques to evaluate their talent.

Look at their role players, and you will see alot of similarities. The only major difference is in their team is age, a center, and Dirk Nowitzki.

The Rockets missed out on netting a true center in free agency but so did 20 something other teams. Plus, that center had a long history of chronic injuries, and there wasn't much hope that he would ever be able to play a full season as a full time starter.

However, it was a low risk move for the Mavericks because they had another center they could rely on if Chandler went down for the season.

 

Dobro,

I am not saying ignore the metrics, by all means, use them....

I think DM is doing a fine job of managing the safe bets (morris and Patterson) with some riskier ones - Thabeet and TWill for example.

Hopefully one of the riskier ones finally pays off......or maybe both......

DD

 

Morey specifically stated in the Sloan Conference during a panel that the Rockets don't draft based on potential. You can go and look up the video and watch it for yourself. The article is not very insightful about moneyball and the Houston Rockets, but it is dealing with the subject and not drafting based on potential is part of Morey's philosophy. I believe that's a mistake. No need for all the Morey worshipers to get so defensive.

 

potential is subjective, as i suspect morey's answer to this question is as well. would you mind finding me this quote? i'd like to see his full answer.

the problem with potential is that it can't really be measured or observed until it happens. the past can be measured, the future cannot.

having said that, i am pretty sure morey does draft on potential, the major rub being that morey's qualification of "potential" is different than the traditional expectation. it can be argued that moneyball is ALL about potential. just a different vision of potential based on statistical analysis.

 

One of the things the staff (very rightly) considers is not just ceiling, but how likely a player is to reach that ceiling. You don't see the Rockets taking a lot of the 'He's a great athlete! If we can just teach him to dribble, shoot, pass, and defend, he'll be an All-Star!' types.

Still, I wish we'd take some more risks, especially with our second-rounders. Was Chandler Parsons really a better pick than Jeremy Tyler?

 

pretty damn good?

not sure i understand your point, or if you even have one. the mavericks use a similar statistics-analytics based approach as the rockets.

sure, mark cuban spends more. but he spends on production.

 

The Rockets have 3 players which fit this description to some extent: Hill, Thabeet, and TWill. Well, when you never draft above 14, it's hard to grab these guys while they're "new". So the Rockets have to get 2nd hand leftovers instead.

Well, Jeremy Tyler dropped a lot. So a lot of other teams obviously felt something was lacking. Perhaps he's simply not as talented as the hype surrounding him. Scouting reports available to fans are pretty unreliable. I remember one knock on Carl Landry was that he was "not athletic" from scouting reports.

 

Moneyball was the ****!! Morey has my full support. It is exactly the way the way Morey runs the team, but he needs more money. Take out the A's and insert the Rockets, all the way down too our winning streaks.

 

I can't remember the source, but for what it's worth, I remember reading that the Rockets draft players based on who will be the best player 3 years down the road.

They care about potential but not after 3 years because they will likely have to make a decision on a player before their 4th year. They don't care about position because with free agency and trades they can fill positional needs, and 3 years down the road when that player either meets, exceeds or doesn't live up to expectations, the makeup of their team will be different than when they drafted him.