if he does or doesn't, Rocket fans will always love the guy for representing the Rockets with class. he's the last of the Rudy T Rockets.
I may be the minority on this, given the fact that this board no longer seem to have YOFs. But I honestly feel Yao deserves his number retired based on just on basketball alone. If anything, I feel his off-court influence on the Rockets has turned many fans against him, spiting his fame and writing off all his on-court accomplishment. But of course all of this pointless. He'll get his number retired, and his haters will talk only about how he screwed the franchise and how Les only retired his number for all his cash. It's a shame Yao will never be remembered as a basketball player or as a person. Which is a shame, because he was my favorite Rocket for the past decade both on and off the court. He was the consummate player and teammate in a world where players only care about themselves. And he worked his ass off. As a player, he was someone I could truly have my kid look up to(if I had one), because he worked hard, listened to his coaches, and got along with his teammates on the court. Unfortunately, none of this actually matters to fans.
Whether he deserves it or not, I would bet that he both gets his jersey retired and gets into the hall of fame.
If that's what you're going to go by, our rafters would be pretty bare. Calvin, Rudy, and Moses... what all did they win before having their jersey retired? CD wasn't even a player. Drexler barely had a cup of coffee here and got his jersey retired. It's pretty clear the history of the Rockets' jersey retirings hasn't revolved solely around winning alone.
Stevie Franchise won't get HIS jersey retired in the building HE built ? Yao solely based on fame will get it retired.
20 years from now, would a casual Rocket fan remember anything from Yao (i.e. a signature game)? Being recognizable doesn't have your jersey retired. Being great allows your jersey to be retired. If that's the case, Vince Carter should have his jersey retired by Toronto b/c he single-handedly brought Toronto onto the scene, and people still know of the Raptors b/c of Vince. HOF is different, as his international fame will get him there. Isn't Sabonis in the HOF too? A lot of things/politics come into play for the HOF, and influence is a huge factor and Yao has that.
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It's not even about being "great". There really isn't a single criteria the Rockets use. Calvin Murphy had ONE all-star appearance in his entire career. He had ONE Player-of-the-Month award. He got in because he was a Rocket lifer for 13 years. And was consistent in his play over that span. I love Murphy, and I love him as the 5-11 enforcer. But he was not an elite player. Rudy was kind of an all-around guy. Played 11 years, 6 all-stars, decent playoff record. Rocket Lifer who probably would've played more if it weren't for that accident. Moses got in despite relatively short career with the Rockets. Basically beastly every year. 6 years of all-star caliber to superstar caliber during that time. Clyde is IMO the least deserving of the bunch. Pretty much got in for the 2nd championship and being a Houston guy. I personally view Yao as in between Rudy and Moses. Both as caliber of player and his importance to the Rockets. And while I can understand people feeling he may not deserve it, I cannot fathom people thinking it would be some sort of a joke. Especially because the bar isn't set at Hakeem.
Name a single player in NBA history who had a good relationship with management, a comparable number of all-star appearances, and didn't have his jersey retired.