What is the value of the #23 pick for the future. If the Rockets were willing to trade out of that pick, and into a first rounder for next year, would they be able to? Would any lottery team that's expected to stay a lottery team be willing to do that? Toronto? Sacramento? Milwaukee? Phoenix? With the depth of talent in the 2012 draft, it seems to make a lot of sense. Of course, you're taking a gamble that trading partner won't suddenly turn it around and tear up the league, but for some teams, that's a decent gamble. I'd rather have Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones, or Jared Sullinger than anyone in the 2011 Draft. Extra picks would be huge next year. This year, not so much. The Patriots do this all the time, except they often trade 2nd rounders for future 1st rounders. Could it work in the NBA?
Its value is extremely low and I highly doubt #23 would get us into anything but the last pick or two of next year's first round. Personally, I find myself more and more bothered by the T-Will trade.
What emjohn said... not worth a whole lot. Certainly no team would give up a pick that wasn't fully lottery protected. Still, any 2012 first round pick (1-30) may be worth more than the #23 this year, though I don't know if we can speak to the depth of that draft just yet. I hear you, but at least the pick is lottery protected. If the Rockets scrape in as the 7th or 8th seed next season and T-Will has not had an impact, then I'd have to agree -- it would be a bad trade. Let's see first if McHale can find a use for him.
While I agree that most teams are not going to want to trade their 2012 pick for anything outside the top-10 picks of this year's draft, there IS value in the 15-35 range of this draft. The "weakness" of the 2011 NBA Draft is at the TOP, not the middle. Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams will both be good players most likely, but neither of them is on par with some of the other recent #1 picks coming out (Andrea Bargnani excepted). If--and it's a big "if"--another team becomes enamored with a player available at #23 but who will most likely be unavailable when the other team picks, there may be a chance that Morey could extract a future pick from that team. However, the more likely scenario there would be for the other team to instead trade its (lower) 2011 first round pick and a present or future SECOND rounder and/or cash. Still, the likelihood of somehow turning any of our picks (including #14) into a 2012 lottery pick is slim to none, . . . and slim just left town.
Impossible to tell because trades like these are always draft day trades. Suppose there's this player this one team really likes. They already used their 1st rounder on someone else, or don't have a 1st rounder this year, but wants this guy really badly. Said player starts dropping. So the team starts calling other teams about what they want for their pick. If said player drops to #23 without being picked, Morey would receive this call. And a deal may go through. But it's impossible to tell before the actual draft what will happen, because no one knows how the order will go. I will say this though. There's absolutely almost no chance the Rockets have both picks in camp next year. Not enough roster space, and guaranteed money may scare them. Either they make a trade, or draft a euro-stash with one. That's my opinion anyway.
I am glad to know that the middle of draft for this year is not that weak, so at least our drafts still have certain values.
I tend to agree with this. I don't think there's a legitimate star in this year's draft (although Kanter has an outside chance of becoming one), but there are a lot of decent NBA starters in this draft, some of which will be around at 23. The Rockets have plenty of decent NBA starters. They could use a shot at a star a lot more. But would a team that has a star, but a lot of holes (Clippers, for example), think the opposite? Heck, if I were Morey, and the Clippers would trade their 2012 1st Round Pick for our 14th pick, I'd do it.
I really do not see ANY value in our picks this year. The best case scenario is we could get another Patrick Patterson, which is probably more than less likely to happen, so we'll probably end up with a Bostjan Nachbar or something. So therefore, I would not be hesitating at all if we had to to trade our picks away this year for a bag of chips if we can move up in a trade package. So if Minny shows interest in Kevin Martin, in addition I'd give them the 14th/23rd/Clipper pick/Budinger/Hill as part of that package as long as we can get Kanter. If we have to give up Lee too, then I'd do that too. The logic behind this is what's the use of the 14th pick going to of use 3 years down the road? It is much better if we trade the 14th away, and that means we won't get that bit of contribution on the court next year. That means we have a higher chance of getting a higher pick in the 2012 draft, which ours will probably be in the top 10 range. I'd rather forfeit this year's pick if it meant we got the 5th pick next year instead of the 8th pick or something. Because if we're rebuilding, whats really the value of a 14th pick in this weak draft? Might as well just do whatever it takes to get Kanter.
The Clippers already traded their (top-10 protected) 2012 pick. Last year, for the draft rights to Eric Bledsoe (#18 pick by OKC).
And I'm not sure if anyone will bite for a mid first 2012 for a mid first 2011. I'd go for trading away our vets and start rebuilding. whats more important? a top 5 pick in 2012? or the 14th pick we're all so hyped up about in 2011? in my opinion, if we can get a top 5 pick in 2012, I'd just sell the pick for 3 million or something. Ok thats a bit extreme, but if we get a low first rounder, e.g. Boston 2012 first, then I'd go for it.
Assuming we don't trade it and you keep the current roster (no 2for1 trades), pick up Goran's contract, pick up Chase's contract, don't pick up DeMarre's contract and resign Chuck, these 2 #1 pick guys will be #13 and #14. That means you either sign Yao or 1 FA - not both. Personally I think #23 is not a better gamble than a FA but is a better gamble than a injuried Yao - sorry Yao. Pick the best available, sign a FA and say goodbye to Yao.
^ We do but we have 3 slots open that I see. If we use both our #1s (assuming we don't keep an overseas pick stashed), then we only have 1 remaining slot. Yao or a FA? I'm thinking FA. What I'm trying to say is this #23 pick is pretty much going to be a #15 player. You only trade him if you think you can fill the roster out better.
I get the logic of trading one of our picks for about the same pick next year, but I'd rather not do it. As somebody said, the Patriots trade this years 2nd for next year's 1st. I'm not at all sure that we'd get a better player next year with the same pick. I could go for next year's 1st plus a 2nd, though, even if it were a year later.
Why exactly is everyone going so crazy over the 2012 draft? I'm not really sold on Jared Sullinger/Harrison Barnes/Perry Jones III as a franchise player, at least not yet. And as for all the incoming freshmen, I would put money down that the age limit gets pushed up to 2 or even 3 years in college by the end of the lockout, further diluting the next draft. Personally, I think the #23 is great value in the draft; I like a lot of the backup-point guard prospects in this draft.
Like i mentioned before, many of you are too hyped about 2012. That draft will have maybe 5 more good players than this one. No biggie. Nothing to bet the farm on. If i could get more top picks in this draft just by trading 2012 picks , i would. There are at least 5 players in this draft that i feel will be very good contributors on this team. Williams, Kanter, Biyombo, Singleton and Brooks.
