A pragmatic look at the upcomming season.

I think it will take 5-6 players consistently hitting double figures scoring. There is no reason an offensive scheme can't be implemented where Steve, Cat, MT, KT, EG, Rice, Mooch, Yao Ming and even Cato get at least 10 points each consistently. This team healthy could average over 100 pts per game.

 

I could not agree more. Well said and VERY objective.

Hope you brought your hard hart with you to the BBS this morning.

 

Help me out, is it 5-6 players hitting 10 points or 8-9?

I agree with the 100 points per game.

 

Dada, I believe Wink and Mobes would be happy to be scoring 15 pts and we are 8 and 2. If we are 8-7 like the Chron predicted then they would be unhappy. The thing they are most hungry for is wins. If the preseason is any indication you are wrong about their role and attitude.

 

Here's some help. I'll take 5-6 out of that bunch on any given night. Hopefully scoring a lot more than 10 too...

 

Very nice post, DaD.

I agree with a lot of what you said, but not completely. I agree that until we have a true frontcourt presence to balance the offense, this team cannot go deep in the playoffs. You seem really cynical about Steve and Cat, which is fine, but more of what I'd consider "biased pessimism" than "unbiased objectivity" or what have you.

I think Steve and Cat are ready to win, and if winning means 15ppg apiece, they'll do it in a heartbeat. The thing is, you'd have to persuade them that limiting their scoring would help the team, and I think you'd have a tough time convincing Rudy of that, not to mention Franchise and Cuttino.
But I agree that their track record of doing what the coach wants doesn't seem very good from the perspective of a fan not-in-the-know. That relying on teammates instead of themselves is not a strong suit of theirs and may not be for a long time.

Anywho, the premise of your argument is that Steve and Cat cannot effectively involve their teammates. I really have not seen enough games (or with enough expertise) to say for myself one way or another. I'm willing to accept that Steve and Cat don't effectively involve their teammates presently, but I don't believe that they can't get better at it. For me, it's more of a question of 1) can they improve enough in this area to get us to the NBA Finals, or 2) how long will it take, and will the core of this team (including the coach) survive until then?

An effective big man (or two) is critical to the Rockets' success, but is it really everything? Granted, the Pacers never made it to the Finals, but they got pretty far with a Miller and Smits tandem, and it was Miller, then Smits, not Smits, then Miller. (That example's probably fodder for your argument) I know everyone brings up Jordan and the Bulls, but it's still a valid point. If you want to say Jordan was an exception, that's fine, but I want yet another explanation of why Jordan and the Jordan-led Bulls was so unique that an offense revolving around a guard can never win it all again and consistently, or not.

The Pistons only support your argument with the assumption again that Stevie and Cat can't consistently get the ball to their teammates where they can succeed. I agree that they need to improve, but I don't think Stevie has to become a top-notch pure point like Stockton to get the job done.

But in the end, I agree that Yao (or possibly Eddie) is critical to the Rockets' success. In the end, we may just be splitting hairs about the importance of the big man to the offense and whether it revolves around him or whether he's just an integral part of it. I also agree that we need at least two years to become a championship contender. Yao needs at least two years before he can become truly comfortable with the NBA and he and the team can really click. We won't be able to contend until he's ready.

 

I agree what you said about Francis and Mobley needing to pass the ball more, but your above statement is just hard for me to envision right now. From what I've seen from Eddie, he still can't do much more than shoot jumpers. It's really hard for me to see him being a go-to guy on offense. I don't think he's proven he can create his own shots yet, nor has he proven he's a good, consistent shooter. He shot more wild shots last season than Francis or Mobley have in their entire careers, just look at his 36% Field-goal percentage from last season. Griffin hasn't even come close to making me think he is a reliable, versatile offensive player, much less the "main focus" on the offensive end. That's just my opinion right now; I know Eddie will improve.

As for Yao, I still haven't seen him play and do well against some of the NBA's best competition, so I just can't comment on how big his role should be right now or in the future. I think he'll do well, but I don't think it's a certainty he'll be a 20 point per game scorer. However, I do think it is much more likely that Yao will be the main offensive focus than Eddie filling that role.

I think giving up on Francis' playmaking ability is a little bit premature, especially considering he has never been surrounded by this many talented players. As for Mobley, I just think the fact that he will not have the ball in his hands as much as he used to could take care of some of his problems.

And there's really no reason to bring up trading Francis anymore. He's here to stay.

 

Maybe you're right DaDak but it's also as logical to think Steve's and Cat's game get elevated with Yao's arrival and Eddie's emergence this season. I agree the Rockets aren't contenders for the title this year and won't be until Yao and Griffin instill fear in the opposition. However, that doesn't mean Steve and Cat can't do some serious damage this year with a healthy team. I wonder about their ultimate potential too, but they are pretty damned good now. I do think you're being objective in your observations, but also maybe a little overly pessimisstic. But that's cool, it's gonna be a fun year. Lots of highs and lows, no doubt. Enjoy the ride.

 

While I agree with your basic premise that the Rockets are several years away from being a title contender, I don't agree that Yao or Griffin need to be the main focus on the offensive end. I think playing better defense and playing smarter on offense (a slightly different take than yours) will make us a title contender. Also, remember that it took Hakeem 10 years to learn to pass out of the double and triple team. Give Stevie and Cat some time.

 

Andre Miller got everyone involved. He lost, lost, lost, and lost. If you have a bad team, getting everyone involved doesn't matter one iota.

 

You can't expect the Rockets to be a threat in the playoffs their first time there in the West. You have to let them get to the playoffs, cut their teeth, and work from there. I think you guys are underestimating Cat and Francis desire to win. They'll be fine, they showed early in the preseason they're willing to defer to win, they just have to do it more then they did later in the preseason.

 

It's not that simple, you have to have good players to pass it to. As DCKid said, Miller, who people claim would make the Rockets better because he is a better passer, lost like crazy in Cleveland. People rave about Jason Kidd now, but would you still be raving about him if he was on that Dallas team that sucked his first few years in the league? What about Marbury in New Jersey, and then in Phoenix last year? Steve Nash on Dallas, they lost his first few years there. But give those players a supporting cast and they win, look at Kidd in Phoenix and New Jersey, Marbury in Minnesota, Nash in Dallas and even Francis 2 years ago here. You can't lay it all at his feet because a PG can only do so much when he's passing the ball to Oscar Torres, Kelvin Cato, and Walt Williams while playing through injuries yourself.

 

I would tend to agree, but in Andre's case, the Cavs ended each season he played with a worse record than their last. How long should it take them to turn the corner?

My point is, sometimes a team just doesn't have it. Last season, with all the injuries, the Rockets just didn't have it. It's hard - scratch that - wrong to use last season to say Steve can't be the main guy on a succesful team. And you can't be too critical of Steve's first season, because he was a rookie, so you would expect him to make mistakes. The second season he led them to an overachieving season. So, there's not really anything from his first two seasons to prove Steve isn't capable of leading the Rockets to the playoffs. I just think you put way too much emphasis on last season.

And I agree with everything you're saying about the things Steve needs to improve on. However, I believe the Rockets will make the playoffs this year, even if Steve doesn't really change his game. Just the fact that they're going to have some low post defenders and better shooters to put the ball in the hole when Steve DOES pass the the ball, is enough for me to feel confident about the upcoming season.

 

This team is a work in progress. Right now, Steve and Cuttino are our best players. period. I love Eddie and Yao, but they are both very young, inexperienced, and raw. They have the tools to become great players, but until then, the team will have to rely on Francis and Mobley. I think, over time, the team will evolve into a much more balanced, multi-dimensional offense. I don't think Steve or Cuttino has to go for this to happen either. Think back to the great Laker teams of the 80s. Magic was a do-it-all PG who had Byron Scott as a deadly 2 guard option, a great scorer in James Worthy, and a major inside force in Kareem. The offense went through Magic and Worthy 1st though, not Kareem. They were able to attack from many different angles on any given night. This Rocket team can evolve into that type of deadly team given time to acquire chemistry. Wouldn't that be great?

 

Kenny Smith had an unusually lucid comment last night on TNT. When they got on the subject of Yao Ming, he said that he has been surprised at how good Ming is and that the Rockets biggest problem will be Francis and Cat realizing that Ming is their best player.

I don't necessarily agree with that right NOW, but I think that very soon, as he develops, Ming will surpass Francis and Cat and we will have to start running all offense through him.