Normally I would suggest pursuing Iggy and Bogut by agreeing to take back bad contracts but without Adelman, I think it would be fruitless.
Imagine a mountain. The problem is, it gets steeper at the top. It's relatively easy to become an average team. There are plenty of decent players in the NBA. The problem is getting from the top half to the top 5.
Well yeah, that's because they've all had superstars they've built around. The Lakers "fork in the road" was choosing Kobe or Shaq -- our fork in the road is Luis Scola and Kevin Martin? Huh? We're not good enough. Kevin Martin is a third option on a contending team, Luis Scola is a really good role player. We can't keep applying bandages to a flawed core -- it's time to rebuild and not retool. Trade Martin and find the star through the draft.
So you are saying we should become a crappy team, hope we end up with a top 3 pick, hope that pick actually turns out to be a Superstar, then go back to acquiring guys like Martin and Scola? I'm not sure that's a better plan.
When and IF we do trade Martin or Scola, they will not be traded for thin air. We will still get value back in return. Hopefully it will be full value, but just at a later date(prospects or high valued picks), more likely it will be a somewhat reduced value, realized at a later date. In addition to that, since in any scenario the value we receive will only benefit us down the line, it means our own draft picks should be positively impacted in the meantime. We don't have to "hope" that a top 3 pick will turn into a superstar. With Morey and co. it is most likely that we will get full value in return for a top 3 pick, whether that is a superstar or whatever else is available. All that amounts to is a talent overhaul and upgrade, down the line.
I'm not going to be surprised if Morey moves Scola or Martin. In fact, I'm expecting Morey to move Scola, either on draft night (if that's possible), or during the summer (if that's possible), or after the lockout, or at the trade deadline. What I don't expect Morey to do is just move out Scola for an expiring and some undefined middle of the first round draft pick. Morey won't change our core unless it gives us a better core. That's my point. The whole idea of trashing out what we got to go to a crapshoot lottery is ludicrous. He's not going to do that. We're going to keep improving our core. And yes, all of our core is moveable, Martin, Scola, and Lowry. That is our core at this point and any one of them can be traded and like I said, I fully expect at least one of them to be traded. But it will only be in a deal for another core piece. You can add Patterson to the first three. He's the fourth piece of the core along with Courtney Lee. Some of those guys will be moved. But, it will only be for a player that give us a better core. In other words, they'll only be moved for Dwight Howard, DWill, Chris Paul, or some other big time upgrade to our core. I can see the possibility of moving either Scola or Patterson along with some of our picks/young players for an upgrade to our core. I can see a package deal of one Scola/Patterson going out to bring in a center like Bogut or some other established big that makes our core better. I can see a package of Scola/14/expirings going out for Iggy/Elton Brand or sending out Patterson/14 to move up to get Kanter or Biyomba in the draft (if indeed Morey feels like they could be an upgrade). What I do not believe we are going to do is trade away Lowry/Martin/Scola for future lottery picks and tank! That is idiotic. And you guys that think that is what we should do, you keep pointing to a different era of the lottery when tanking meant getting a top pick for sure. That era is gone. Pulling the tank for Hakeem, that doesn't exist anymore. The lottery picks for the most part are a crapshoot. The lottery draw is a crapshoot. You're just as likely to wind up with Sam Bowie as you are with Hakeem. We caught lightening in a bottle getting Hakeem. That's not how you build a consistent winner these days. And Morey is too good with the math. He knows those odds. The days we tank for the lottery are the days after Morey is not the GM. We're not gonna tank. We're not gonna tank. We're not gonna tank. Losers tank. And they lose year after year after year after year. For every Hakeem in the lottery, there are 50 Harold Minors, Sam Bowies, Danny Mannings, Wayman Tisdales, Stromile Swifts, and Marcus Fizers, just to name a small few. WE ARE NOT GOING TO TRADE AWAY OUR CORE AND TANK!
Funny. I actually feel like we're farther away than I had originally thought. We need lots of size up front. Way more toughness. And someone who can put the team on his back. We have all kinds of holes.
As far as your post there are some points I agree and disagree with. However, the ironic part, is that the Rockets are not tanking yet are losers. Missing out on the playoffs is what I consider "losing year and year" like you just said. I assume you are describing the Clippers who keep losing year after year and tank, yet they have a better core than the Rockets and will surpass the Rockets next year,. So, you bash other teams for tanking, you bash other teams that are losing year after year, yet the Rockets are not tanking and still lose. Thats how sorry this team is. None of you in this thread have made a suggestion on how to get a superstar. Trading Scola(injured) for Bogut is idiotic/pipedream/and a waste of my time reading. This thread is sad. This tells me that the majority of fans here accept mediocrity as long as the Rockets dont get the stigma of tanking. I know tanking looks bad and is embarassing but it WORKS. You get a very good/superstar in the draft instead of tread water every year. I dont know about you guys,but fighting for the 8th seed every year gets old quick. This isnt the NFL. In the Nfl you can get very good players late in the first round and improve but in the nba you have to be bad before you become good.I guess some here will never understand. Id accept 1 bad year if it meant 10 years of greatness(from the draft pick) .. The ironic thing about this whole thread, is some of you are probably chinese and came to this site because of Yao, yet you were not here in 2001 when the Rockets were "tanking" and threw away games and lost like 17 in a row and ended up with Yao. The rockets WOULD NOT have Yao if they were fighting for a 8th seed in 2002.They sucked ass and won the lottery because they gathered as many ping pong balls as possible. I guess its hypocritic.The same Yao only fans do not accept tanking yet fail to understand that tanking brought Yao here in the first place.
Lowry, Hayes, and Scola are all junk yard dogs! Add Patterson to that pile. He's tough as nails. We've got tough. We need to re-sign Hayes and add someone like Asik and get a small forward from somewhere and continue building. We need a small forward who is tough, defends tough, and doesn't take a bunch of shots and dribbles, who will facilitate the offense. Maybe that guy is TWill. I don't know. BTW, TWill is junk yard tough too. We've got plenty o' tuff. We need length at the 5 and a young defender at the 3.
Exactly. People keep pipedreaming about bogut and marc gasol. Pipedreams. Having a aging injured Yao isnt as good as Marc Gasol. Id like to have someone tell me how the Rockets can pass the grizzles next year? Grizzleys tanked for years and now its finally coming to fruition. It sucks to tank but eventually it works if you can sign your own players (clippers are cheap) Ive been keeping tabs on tanking/draft the past couple of years since Yao got injured in the lakers series. We are talking Demarcus Cousins, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, and next years draft is going to be AWSOME. I wish the Rockets had a top 3 pick in next years draft. Im not as impressed at this "core" as the rest of you. The core is Lowry,Budinger,Patterson,Martin. Four role players.
Beavis, The way you get a superstar is you keep acquiring better, younger talent and developing them and then you trade for the superstar when they are available!
Of course not, that would just be dumb. Saying that we are about to "rebuild" doesn't mean we are about to hold a charity event for other teams. That is a pipe dream. DWill was traded for a top 3 pick and future top 10 pick, in addition to the rest of that King's ransom. Carmelo was only traded to EXACTLY where he wanted to go, as was Mcgrady. The chances of us getting any of those guys is not any better, and most likely worse, than hitting one of the so called "crapshoots" in the draft. Bogut is a franchise center. Why would Philly do us favors? How are Kanter or Biyomba not "crapshoots" according to you? The lottery is not a "crapshoot". And different "eras" has nothing to do with it. Yes in this lottery era you can't guarantee yourself the #1 pick, but a bottom 10 team WILL get a high pick. As for your rant on past busts, that is a typical confusion between correlation and causation, which led to a misuse of statistics. Yes there has been plenty of busts in the past, and the fact is the draft has been pretty random. But it is not random BECAUSE it is random. It is random because of who is doing the drafting. Most of the teams that draft that high are some of the worst run organizations in the league. That is why they are there year after year, and why they choose bust after bust. They have horrible scouting and talent evaluations. The Hawks botched lottery picks going for Sheldon Williams and Starvin' Marvin instead of CP3. The Grizzlies drafted Thabust the year right after trading true Love for some damn Mayonnaise. That isn't because they are just so "unlucky". That the "crapshoot" just didn't land on poor Memphis and Atlanta those years. It is because they simply suck at drafting. At the same time, if you gave those same picks to some of the top talent evaluators in the league, you will be getting fantastic pick after fantastic pick. What? Don't tell me you ACTUALLY believe Morey is some real life Wizard with wand in hand? Where after he waves it across the skies he can beat the mathematical odds etched in stone? I mean, we are not even talking about lottery picks here. What are the odds that low first rounders and second rounders even stick around in the league? Has Morey really solved the mysteries of the universe? Of course not. He is simply consistently very good at his job. And when you stack his record next to some of the joke jobs around the rest of the league, of course the outcome will seem a whole lot of random. Correlation != causation. With that said I am not saying we HAVE to tank. Just that I totally understand the argument, and MAYBE that is the best way to go. It certainly isn't "idiotic", unless most teams who have a franchise player are "idiotic". Since most of them drafted theirs in the lottery.
I agree. DWill and Howard are a pipe dream. Paul is too. But if Paul wants out........there you go. That's how you have a chance to trade for a superstar. They gotta want out of their situation and you gotta have the assets and a winning organization to bring them to. Yeah Bogut is a very good center.....on a crappy team. I just mentioned his name. Because that kind of player represents an upgrade even though they are not a "superstar". Bogut is not a superstar. Don't think Philly will do us any favors. But Iggy/Brand are another upgrade without getting a superstar. That's the point. Kantor and Biyombi are a crapshoot to me. I only mentioned them if MOREY thinks they are the real thing. I do trust his player valuation. You don't? He's hit on too many guys. Morey knows what he's doing in player valuation. If he decides to trade up to get Kantor or some other big, then I'm going to consider the dude is a big time player. Morey's not gonna burn assets to move up 10 spots in the lottery unless he knows something. My point was IF there is a big time player in the draft that he can move up for, he'll do it. That is, if that player has superstar or star potential and he feels they will be a part of our core and will upgrade our core. He's not going to move up in the draft for another role player or another slight upgrade at one of the positions. He's not going to give away our young players and draft picks for a project that may or may not work out. He's not going to move up in the draft to draft a player that may become the 15-20th best center in the NBA a few years down the line. Sucking at drafting is one thing. But even if you don't suck at drafting, you miss more than you hit. Because..........there is realistically only about 10-12 true superstar players at any given time. Everybody else falls in the category of good to mediocre to poor. That's it. Yes, Morey knows what he's doing when it comes to valuing players.
That story already played out last year and his name was Deron Williams. If CP3 wants out, he will most likely be traded to Cleveland or Toronto or Washington or whatever other Eastern team with a high pick.
I agree with jopatmc, Morey isn't going to let us tank - the odds don't support this as a viable strategy to acquiring a star. I think Morey will continue to field a deep team of role players, cap flexibility, and future draft picks and one of these days he is going to be ready to take advantage of a favorable situation in one of those markets and buy or trade for a new star. That he hasn't had the opportunity to acquire that star yet doesn't denote a failed strategy so much as a reflection that the odds are of course stacked against us while competing for the same resources with 29 other teams. ...but on the bright side, I think paired with the right star(or two) we could probably make a fairly big competitive jump because I think in terms of role players we have some of the best in the league. I have said it before and I'll say it again - this is a plug and play contender. These agents just need to get their clients to realize this...but of course the reality of the situation is Morey is a savy businessman and agents would much prefer their players to go to teams like NY, LA, Dallas, Orlando because they tend to (over)pay more....that's why I think if the league tightens up the soft cap that has been giving those markets advantages in the FA market, you'll see Houston really become a more attractive destination.
Either you are contradicting yourself, or I am having a hard time understanding. If Morey is so good at talent evaluation(I agree he IS), how is it a bad idea to aim for high picks for him to play with? High picks in his hands are NOT a crapshoot.
Those are broken odds that don't take into account all the variables. While I have been preaching to the counter of this, I agree that it isn't a "failed strategy" just because it hasn't worked so far. Certainly it is more difficult than we first thought though. The better questions is, how long does Morey have to wait around for this "favorable situation"? Fans are ready to hang him with a noose, NOW. Today. What if it takes another 2, 3 years before things fall into place? Will he even make it to then? Maybe, again I am not saying for certain, but just MAYBE, it is better to put things into our own hands and get a top pick for him to work his magic on. Sooner rather than later. Especially with this supposed historic draft that is about to come up in 2012.
