[Slate] Why hiring a new coach won't solve your NBA team's problems

Name              DEF/100P        Name                OFF/100p
ScottSkiles       +4.2            JimOBrian           +1.9
MikeFratello      +3.6            TonyDiLeo           +1.5
JeffVanGundy      +3.2            AlvinGentry         +1.4
TomThibodeau      +3.0            ScottBrooks         +1.3
StanVanGundy      +2.9            KevinMcHale         +1.2
AveryJohnson      +2.9            JimBoylan           +1.2
GregPopovich      +2.8            TonyBarone          +1.0
DougCollins       +2.5            LionelHollins       +0.9
FlipSaunders      +2.5            PaulWestphal        +0.9
DocRivers         +2.4            KeithSmart          +0.8
MontyWilliams     +2.2            ReggieTheus         +0.8
DwaneCasey        +2.1            SamMitchell         +0.7
JerrySloan        +1.8            PaulSilas           +0.7
LionelHollins     +1.6            DonNelson           +0.6
GeorgKarl         +1.6            JayTriano           +0.5
RickCarlisle      +1.6            TomThibodeau        +0.4
ScottBrooks       +1.5            MikeD'Antoni        +0.4
LarryDrew         +1.4            KennyNatt           +0.4
MikeMontgomery    +1.3            LarryKrystkowiak    +0.4
MikeBrown         +1.2            FrankVogel          +0.3
PatRiley          +1.1            DwaneCasey          +0.2
RickAdelman       +1.0            MikeBrown           +0.2
BernieBickerstaff +1.0            MikeWoodson         +0.2
PhilJackson       +0.9            VinnyDelNegro       +0.1
IsiahThomas       +0.9            BobHill             +0.1
BrianHill         +0.9            StanVanGundy        -0.1
VinnyDelNegro     +0.8            RandyWittman        -0.1
EricSpoelstra     +0.8            TyroneCorbin        -0.1
LarryBrown        +0.8            SamVincent          -0.1
MauriceCheeks     +0.7            GeorgKarl           -0.2
MikeDunleavy      +0.7            EdTapscott          -0.2
JimOBrian         +0.6            KimHughes           -0.2
KurtRambis        +0.6            BobWeiss            -0.2
PaulWestphal      +0.4            MarcIavaroni        -0.3
SamMitchell       +0.4            LarryDrew           -0.4
TerryStotts       +0.4            PhilJackson         -0.4
EricMusselman     +0.4            KurtRambis          -0.4
P.J.Carlesimo     +0.4            EddieJordan         -0.4
FrankVogel        +0.2            MichaelCurry        -0.4
LawrenceFrank     +0.2            JeffBower           -0.4
TerryPorter       +0.2            MontyWilliams       -0.5
KevinMcHale       +0.1            RickAdelman         -0.5
MikeD'Antoni      +0.1            JerrySloan          -0.6
NateMcMillan      +0.1            DougCollins         -0.7
KeithSmart        -0.1            EricSpoelstra       -0.7
MikeWoodson       -0.1            TerryStotts         -0.7
ByronScott        -0.1            JohnKuester         -0.7
PaulSilas         -0.2            KikiVandeweghe      -0.8
EddieJordan       -0.5            MauriceCheeks       -0.9
MichaelCurry      -0.5            NateMcMillan        -0.9
KikiVandeweghe    -0.5            GregPopovich        -1.0
TonyDiLeo         -0.7            BernieBickerstaff   -1.0
BobHill           -0.7            JeffVanGundy        -1.1
JimBoylan         -0.9            IsiahThomas         -1.1
RandyWittman      -0.9            MikeDunleavy        -1.1
JeffBower         -0.9            EricMusselman       -1.1
JayTriano         -1.0            FlipSaunders        -1.2
DonNelson         -1.1            MikeMontgomery      -1.2
JohnKuester       -1.1            ScottSkiles         -1.4
ReggieTheus       -1.2            MikeFratello        -1.4
MarcIavaroni      -1.3            LawrenceFrank       -1.4
TyroneCorbin      -1.4            ByronScott          -1.4
EdTapscott        -1.4            AveryJohnson        -1.5
AlvinGentry       -1.5            BrianHill           -1.7
TonyBarone        -1.5            LarryBrown          -1.9
SamVincent        -1.6            P.J.Carlesimo       -1.9
KimHughes         -1.9            TerryPorter         -1.9
BobWeiss          -2.1            DocRivers           -2.1
KennyNatt         -2.6            PatRiley            -2.2
LarryKrystkowiak  -2.8            RickCarlisle        -2.5

 

I wonder what the standard error/confidence interval is for the APM.

Also, I am thinking that a coach's numbers may be affected by (a) inheriting either a young player on the rise or an older player getting injured or on the decline, (b) the competence of his predecessor or successor.

Are these factors "adjusted" for?

One more thing: It seems this APM is sort of an attempt a measuring a coach's influence on a hypothetical generic NBA lineup. I am not sure if that's what you really want to get at when considering whether a coach is good or not-- just like you want your players to fit with each other, you want your players to fit your coach (and vice versa). Adelman, for example, would seem to do better when he has players who are able to move/share the ball rather than ball-stoppers. Larry Brown, too, seems to have a tendency to trade the entire rosters to suit his needs before his team turns around.

 

Good coach?

a great example would be Frank Vogel during the televised timeouts yesterday against the Bulls

knows what to say to players... unfortunately they lost at the end

 

Of course those guys had the benefit of playing together for half a season before the new guy took over. There's no way to connect their improved 2nd half to a coaching change. There are too many factors to consider.

 

My personal opinion, without knowing the situation in detail, is that players didn't like the old coach and wanted to prove they hated his guts. But that kind of motivation and effort usually doesn't last very long, and not really sustainable.

Not to mention half a season of data in general is just way too small a sample size. Especially because NBA schedule's not balanced. It's why people are raving about the Rockets post-all-star break surge, but don't care for the fact that their schedule became easier too. And that in the end, they're still a team that beats crappy teams and lose to good ones.

 

it did with Tom Thibbs, but i wouldn't take that chance

 

tibbs being a defensive mastermind was a secret....that was not so much of a secret if you payed attention to the rockets or celtics years back. Happy for the guy, deserves it.

 

that article is a few years old ... lol ... but, interesting about why Johnson got fired soon after taking them to the Finals. i hadn't seen that explanation.

 

Because Dirk Nowitski and the rest of the Maverick "creampuffs" had grown tired of Avery's insistence that they play defense. Also, Mark Cuban was looking for a scapegoat (that didn't involve himself) after the 2006 implosion in the NBA Finals. Remember, this was a team and an organization that was steeped in "Nellie Ball" - the basketball philosophy of Don Nelson where defense is/was optional at best. Coming out of the Greg Popovich school of hard-nosed defense-first basketball, AJ's approach was much too radical a change for their tender dispositions to stomach.

 

Hansbrough, Hibbert and Collison got to play less and less together under O'Brien. In the O'Brien's last game, Hansbrough got a DNP, Hibbert played 21 minutes(less than half the game). By the time Vogel took over, they didn't play together much.

Hansbrough didn't get much playing time under O'Brien. His minutes were being reduced. In February, he had several games of DNP or less than 10 minutes.

Hibbert didn't get better with this "benefit of playing together" under Obie. His minutes were cut every week from 34 min/g to 22 min/g.