I'll take #16 and making the playoffs rather than just #14. Burning the Knicks for 2 spots is sweet, too.
Update: Knicks 35-36 (0.493) 4 game losing streak draft position: 16th Rockets 38-34 (0.528) 5 game winning streak draft position: 14th Knicks may end up with an 8th seed and drafting 15th, if they keep losing. Rockets could end up with the 18th/19th pick, if they continue winning and make the playoffs.
I think our Orlando and NY picks are pretty much set. If we make the playoffs, we'll pick #16 and #23. If we miss, we'll pick #12-14, and #23. Orlando is 3 games ahead of Denver, so that pick won't be getting any better. They are only 1 game worse than OKC, but I don't really expect they will outperform OKC in the stretch. But, it's possible that pick gets one slot worse. The chance that Phoenix makes the playoffs at this point to replace Orlando's pick owed to us is very remote. New York is 3.5 games ahead of Indiana, which isn't exactly on a tear themselves. No way NY falls to 8 seed, so that pick won't get better than #16. If we make the playoffs, then NY won't be able to pass us -- we're 2.5 games up right now and will have to finish strong for all of this to even be relevant. It's equally unlikely that they catch the other WC bubble team, whether it is Memphis or New Orleans or long-shot Phoenix. If we miss the playoffs, we'll be in the same neighborhood record-wise as the other failing bubble team, likely Phoenix. If we crater, we might be on par with Utah. It can't get worse than that. So, #12 to #14.
1) 12-14th and 23rd is about 50% 2) 16 and 23 is about 40% 3) 12-14 and 18-19 (phoenix making playoffs) is about 8% 4) 2% for all other scenarios. My rough estimates. Jazz beating the Hornets tonite would increase scenarios 2 and 3.
Rockets are 1 game back in the loss column behind the Grizzlies. Rockets have the tie breaker with a 3-1 head to head record against the Grizzlies. Rockets only need to win 1 more game than the Grizzlies for the rest of the season(10-11 games) for the swap to happen. Knicks have lost 8 of the last 9 games, including 2 losses to the Bucks. Knicks can't afford to have another winless week. Two more weeks like this, they could be eliminated from the playoffs.
Doubt it. If the Knicks literally lost every single game from here on out, Milwaukee or Charlotte would have to play above .500 ball to take that spot from the Knicks. Hollinger, after all, has the Knicks' odds of making the playoffs at 99.4%, while we're at 33.9%.
Those predictions are based on the full season. It doesn't take into account that David West is out for the rest of the year, which changes those odds. It doesn't take into account that the Rockets have traded no-offense Battier and no-defense Brooks, which changes those odds again. He had the Rockets around 10-20%, just 2 weeks ago. It changed. If the Knicks don't win in the next 2 weeks, Hollinger's odds will change. He had them at 100% last week.
The Knicks would have to go 2-8 the rest of the year and the Bucks would have to go 8-3. Highly unlikely.......but still possible I guess.
Isn't that what I said? They need a win in the next 2 weeks. You are saying they need 2 wins at least.
Knicks are in freefall right now, there is an outside chance they end up in the lottery. The Knicks currently have the 13th worst record in the league. Time to start rooting for GS/Mil/Ind/Cha. Knicks remaining games:
If we're figuring the Knicks need 2 or 3 wins to get in, they have to be salivating over that New Jersey-Cleveland-Toronto homestand coming up. They could wrap up their playoff spot in about a week.
I wouldn't guarantee wins against Cleveland for NY though. The Cavaliers have the Knicks' number. Cavs are 3-0 against the Knicks(before and after Carmelo). The Nets are a different team, after the Deron Williams trade. They are about as good as the Bobcats and Bucks, when Deron Williams plays. He plans on coming back against the Knicks. Knicks can't even defeat the Bobcats, so I would not consider this an automatic win. It can go either way with the Knicks' poor defense. They will make Deron look like a stud. The Raptors win is the only one in the bag. Bargnani isn't playing. This team is worse than before.
What? You weren't rooting for those teams before now??? Remember, we want all of those teams to secure records better than the Clippers in order to maximize the value of the SECOND rounder that the Rockets can swap up to (from the Steve Novak trade in 2008). Also, for what it's worth, root like hell for the Nets to win all of their remaining games this season (except against the Rockets on Tuesday). Remember, the Utah Jazz own the Nets' UNPROTECTED first round pick. The way things are going, it is entirely possible (24% chance as of today) that the Jazz could get a top-3 pick this year. With every Nets loss, those odds go up for Utah. Personally, I will vomit a little in my mouth if I have to watch the Jazz win the draft lottery in May.
Hopefully, the Jazz will do what they did last year and waste a good pick on a bad player because of his race
