That is pretty much it. Europe and Asia are more dependent on ME oil than the US is but if it all goes into the World market then prices and availability are still going to be greatly affected by the US. Also I am skeptical that the US willing to tolerate an Egyptian revolution because we are less dependent on ME oil partly because Egypt doesn't have oil but also because that the US is militarily stretched too thin to do anything about it, the Obama Admin. is ideologically inclined to not be alarmed by a pro-democracy uprising in Egypt, and that the Obama Admin. is figuring that a democratic Egypt will still honor its treaties and will be a long term good for the ME.
That's possible, but the government has a big stake in this as well. It’s not the refiners who’ve been fighting the oil wars in the ME, after all. I’m sure the refiners work closely with the government when they decide where they buy their crude. I don’t know what’s going on in Mexico. I’m not suggesting that the US is intentionally holding their oil in reserve, but I strongly suspect that the feds will have advised the refiners that they believed Venezuela was becoming unstable, and that they should start pulling out and looking elsewhere. And it’s probably not a complete coincidence that the deal was made to pipe oil sands oil to the refineries in Houston at a time when Venezuela was becoming increasingly politically unstable. A dependable supply of oil is a matter of national security, and I’m sure the government is involved at many levels.
Maybe I’m not understanding, but let me try this. If a large percentage of the US’s imports came from Saudi Arabia, and there was a civil war there that destroyed facilities and cut off all oil exports for an extended period of time, the US would be in big trouble quite quickly. The ships full of oil Saudi would stop arriving in Houston. The refineries would have nothing to refine, and there would be gas shortages and BIG problems for the economy. Otoh, if the same civil war happened but the US was not getting a large percentage of its oil from Saudi Arabia, the impact would be quite different. The oil would still be flowing through the pipeline from the oil sands, and the Houston refineries would still be putting out product. The price of oil on the futures market would go up, and eventually that would be passed on the consumer, but it wouldn’t happen right away, there would still be gas to buy, and the rest of the world that had a supply of oil would be in the same boat.
Not in my experience, at least in the US. The only time the US government gets involved in a capacity to deny a chance to buy a crude is for things like pipeline permitting at border crossings. The Coast Guard also does tanker escorts in coastal waters, but they do that regardless of whose crude is being shipped. Of course, embargoes prevent refiners from buying Iranian or Cuban crude, for example, but that's an extreme case. The loss of production in Venezuela and Mexico is due to the declining reserves of easy oil in those countries, and the incompetence of their state oil companies in production. It has nothing to do with the preference of the US government. The US certainly chooses allies that can be good trade partners, in general, but I think the government moves in those is more reactive than proactive.
