[SabermetricResearch] Basketball statistics are too flawed to work

Some great points made in that piece. Thanks for posting.

I know it was only part of the article, but I almost feel as though people would enjoy proving that Carmelo Anthony has a small (well, smaller than public perception) impact on winning. He's not a very efficient shooter, he's not a a great passer, and he doesn't do much dirty work. He sort of goes against what is thought of as good in statistical analysis.

 

Statistics are overly used. Sure, they give you some yardstick of measurement against other players, but when it comes down to it two players averaging the same things can affect their respective teams immensely, and not have it show on the box score.

 

Morey faints.

 

yep.

Morey isn't about boxscores. his stats come from the scouts ... scouting the metrix that Morey/coaches think are important.

 

Its not just in statistical analysis a guy who chucks a lot, can't hit 3s and slacks on D shouldn't be thought of as a max player by common sense. I think people trump him up because they need a successor to Allen Iverson.

 

I always found stats to be misleading, I remember last year, having not been able to watch a lot of games, then seeing Ariza having a good stat line afterwards. Only to go on clutchfans and find out he actually wasn't a good fit despite his stats.

There's one way and one way only to judge a player's worth.

Watch him play.

 

I've always thought that some form of +/- should be the best way to evaluate a player's value. The basic concept of that is the attempt to measure how much the game changes (positively or negatively in terms of points differential) with and without the player on the floor. The trick is, how do you find the control when the factors affecting the game is so diverse?

 

They are too flawed to work directly on paper. They tell some of the story and are useful. But basketball is unlike baseball cuz even though there is just one ball, there's too many things happening on the court with different people. Even if you need individual talented players, its still a team game.

All you have to do is PLAY basketball to know who the ALPHAS are on the team, and to feel how roles fall into line after that. The very fact that a player WILL take on the playmaking and responsibility load upon himself is a boost to a team. When you're on the floor, you're not really seeing and sensing that Carmelo makes 4 less shots per 100 attempts than the upper crust scorers. You're feeling that he's CARRYING the team, as flawed as he might be, and it makes it easier for YOU to fill in your role.

I've said that teammates don't care THAT much about "Stop Snitchin" campaigns and the like. That its a bunch of yuppie elitists who want to have something to grandstand about that makes it a bigger deal than what it really is IN THE LOCKER ROOM. Like Kanye West, you don't WANT to root for him, but he does the job he has to do in the studio.

 

Thanks for posting that stuff Durvasa.

I would love to hear all of Morey's little secrets...

 

tbh i dont think morey uses many of the "official statistics", it'd be why he has half a dozen people doing it, collecting the ones that are useful.

 

the difference between baseball and other sports is everything is a 1 on 1 contest, the only team elements is throwing to run batters out and by the time you get to the pros, it's generally going to be well above 99% accuracy.

Which means stats can tell you everything, as there's very few external factors, football for example though, stats are pretty much worthless.

The problem with all these adjusted stats, is they're done in a such way that all they really tell us is that "what we knew was true already is so", and if they don't, they're essentially arbitrarily changed to tell us something we know already. This isn't a new thing though, even government population demographics data does precisely that very thing (what do you want it to look like is one of the first questions asked, heh).

 

Someone created the box score and he should be shot - Morey http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html

 

I hate stat whores who only use stats to discuss basketball instead of also using their eyes on the games.

 

I agree. I also hate people who say stats are completely worthless and their opinion, often from watching only a handful of games, is more valid. I think both need to be used to effectively evaluate players.

 

On rebounding, a player's value should be based on how he affects team rebounding rather than his individual rebounds. Things like boxing out, tipping, or even just taking up space does not show in any direct stats.

Is there some kind of +/- stats on rebounds similar to +/- on points?