Fifth generation stealth fighter (J-20) from China

We are talking about the PRC here.

 

If I can respond to you and Deckard at the same time here. Yes the clock is ticking in regard to our military superiority but exactly how long is that clock? Is it the last 2 minutes of the game of is it still the third quarter? From what I have read it sounds like it is still the third quarter.

The PRC, India and Russia may very well catch up to us but they still have a long while to go in the meantime we are facing very severe deficits. Also without those I highly doubt that the PRC is going to invade Taiwan or Japan given the amount and importance of trade between those nations. The current Taiwanese government is in fact increasing ties with the PRC. While nationalists may engage in saber rattling now and then I think all of East Asia, with the exception of NK, realize how dependent their economies are to each other and will do what they can to avoid conflict.

Also I don't think a multi polar world where the US isn't the sole superpower is that bad of a thing.

For now though we have a huge bloated defense budget and a massive military industrial complex that we need to take steps weaning ourselves from. Canceling wasteful systems like F-35 is one step but so is freezing unneeded systems like the F-22.

 

General agreement on geopolitical picture.

But F-22 production is dead and I'm just lamenting the fact that a (relative)little more money bought a lot more airframes, and then cancelling the 400 billion dollar F-35 becomes an obvious cut.

As far as the clock ticking, we are 10 years from not being able to do what we do now, day to day, assuming 5 more years of Iraq/Afghanistan sortie rates and low rate F-35 production according to my (really) rough estimates.

 

Positives of withdrawing our military from East Asia
1. We could actually sell them weapons to lower our trade deficit with them
2. Providing more jobs for ourselves in making such weapons
3. Lower our defense budget.
4. Allow our soldiers stationed there to be moved to more needed areas of the world

Negatives of withdrawing our military from East Asia
1. China can decide that economic development is for losers and go Germany on the Entire sub-continent... and even then, we at least have a good excuse to not pay our trillion dollar debt.

I don't know about you, but I honestly see no reason for our forces to be there. We have basically subsidized these countries so they can basically devote almost nothing to national defense, and in return, all they did was taking our jobs by developing economically.

 

Isn't the US' military presence/protection the main reason that they buy American hardware? It's not like the US is selling them the most advanced equipment anyway. Is a F-15 that much of a better investment than a MIG29? And is Russia sensitive to selling military equipment to other East Asian countries?

 

A more likely "negative" from an American superpower POV is China will have more influence in the region which helps with things like territorial disputes, int'l relations/trade agreements etc.

Not the end of the world, and I don't think denying China more influence is worth the huge monetary cost the US is paying atm; but I think you are overlooking the more obvious negatives of the US withdrawing.

 

Not that it has anything, really, to do with the thread, but an obvious negative to the US pulling out of the region is the rearming of Japan. I can't imagine anyone in the region outside of Japan wanting that. I don't think the United States wants it, either, but they would assuredly sell them hardware. Another obvious reason is North Korea. The territorial disputes are a huge deal to several countries that like the fact that we are hanging around. I can see a gradual reduction over the years in US forces, which we've been seeing the last several years, but nothing major in the near future.

 

Just out of curiosity, why do you see this as a negative? Japan's interests are aligned with ours to a great enough degree that I don't see them emerging as a security threat. If one of our allies wants to shoulder a greater load in maintaining the region's strategic balance, we should be cheering.

 

I said it was a negative to the countries in the region, who have long memories about Japan's atrocities during WWII and with good reason. I don't doubt that they would be upset. Some might put up with it in order to deter what they see as China's territorial ambitions, but I think they would prefer to have the US in that role. Another possibility, if China continues to push it's military expansion and the US pulls out, is a potential nuclear Japan. My understanding, based on things I've read over the years, is that Japan could build them in months. My opinion, of course. I think we'll see a status quo for the near future, with continued reductions of US forces, but over several years. A change in the regime in North Korea could change this drastically.

 

This is only a negative if you believe US should patrol the world. I personally don't. Especially because in today's age, when I believe economic influence >> military influence. That's just my opinion though.

 

I wouldn't worry about Japan fully rearming . They may increase their defense spending in the short term in response to China's rise and the recent territorial disputes, but Japan won't have the ability to fully rearm due to their aging demographics that will strain their economy in the future. Some analyst believe that Japan will eventually have to break with US foreign policy and work with their neighbors to maintain their standard of living.