So...what if Carolina gets the #1 pick again next year? Think he'd come back for his senior season? He's set to graduate in the spring of 2012.
And the chance to play in the NFL will be there next year. If he left, the chance to experience college as a kid wouldn't be. Nor would the chance to win the Heisman, the Pac10, or the national championship. Sure, he might suffer some unique injury that ruins him forever. But I doubt any great QB lets their life be dictated by the fear of bad things. If they did, they probably wouldn't be very good QBs.
The rookie pay scale would be implemented for this coming draft class, IIRC, so that's not really something to account for.
If he's really as good as people think - capable of being the next Peyton Manning in the NFL - he shouldn't have a problem having a great college season. And if he's not that good and doesn't have a great season, then maybe he'd be better off going lower in the draft and not having the pressure of being the saviour of a franchise. He might just end up with a longer and happier NFL career.
One thing is missing that he could want badly and that is a National Championship. He would be returning to a team that has a good shot at winning the title. It's tough but he looks to be up for the challenge. I think calling this decision dumb is wrong just for the simple fact this decision most likely won't lead him to a life of struggle. He still will most likely be making millions next year and that is what he is banking on.
I doubt the fact that Carolina has the number 1 pick is the only reason he's staying in school this year.
I wish him the best. Seems like a really nice kid with his head on straight. I'm guessing Harbaugh still bolts and, if so, I hope Luck has a coach next year that is worthy of his talent. Hiring great head coaches isn't something Stanford is known for. I'm also curious how many key players will be leaving. The chances of Stanford being in the national championship hunt again seem unlikely. The team with the #1 pick next year (if he's the #1 pick) may have a sorrier outlook than the Panthers do now. We'll see.
I imagine the person that benefits the most from this is the Stanford OC. I don't know enough about him to know if he's head coaching material, but if so, he's got to shoot up to the top of the list for Stanford.
Do your research. Underclassman QB's have a low success rate if they leave for the NFL early. That one extra year does magic for them.
Hopefully the Texans will fill all their needs in FA and start drafting BPA, while maybe Luck falls next year.
That brings up an interesting that was discussed in the preseason. Apparently, studies show that for QBs drafted in the top 2 rounds (the prime prospects), the best predictors of success are simply completion % and # of starts. That's it. Nothing about yards, QB ratings, wins, quality of opposition, etc - those two stats alone better predict success than anything else.
This was quick: 1. Carolina Panthers: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia THE BUZZ: Carolina has got to be upset that Andrew Luck, who was a lock here, is returning to Stanford. They could go with a defensive lineman here, but they are hurting bad at wide receiver and may take Green as an athletic, flashy pick to try and help Jimmy Clausen and pacify a restless fan base. John Gruden said last night on ESPN 2 that the best predictor of QB success was the burning desire to do whatever it takes to get better. They were having a round table discussion of how the big busts at QB happen and questioned how everyone overlooked the emotional immaturity of Ryan Leaf.
http://www.carolinahuddle.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2889383&postcount=4 Check out that signature...lol.
I talked w/ my cousin who played HS ball with Luck at Stratford and he was saying how Luck might stay all four years at Stanford and would no way come out this year (his family is loaded and he's on scholarship, so he's not hurting for money and I think he's an engineering major with really good grades, if I'm not mistaken); so I can't say I'm shocked at the news.
I have to admit that I was surprised by hearing this but from reading what I have read and thinking about all the factors, I'm not surprised and I can't really blame Luck for staying. TheCat mentioned or eluded (sorry as I didn't read his whole post) that even if Luck suffers an injury next season, he should still be okay because look at Sam Bradford as proof of that. How much did Bradford play in his final season at OU? Wasn't it 4 games, yet he still was the #1 pick in the NFL draft. So, I doubt that Luck is sweating an injury for next season. And don't forget that nobody is a hotter coaching commodity than Jim Harbaugh - University of Michigan wants him, Panthers want him (probably not any more, lol), Dolphins, Broncos, etc. At one point, it was a foregone conclusion that he would be leaving Stanford. With Luck coming back, Harbaugh may very well stay. I mean they did just go 12-1 and should be a favorite for the NC next season. That still means a lot to some guys than being the #1 pick and going to a dump like Carolina. Also, don't think for one minute that his dad, Oliver (former NFL QB) didn't give him counsel about this. I'm sure that his dad would want him in a better market than Charlotte, NC.
Bradford didn't get hurt by it in terms of draft position, but he didn't get helped by it either. He effectively forfeited a fulll year's salary, especially with a lockout looming, in exchange for a miserable year (minus 6 quarters) roaming the sidelines wearing a sling for a bad team, making 0 dollars and 0 cents. In a game where your career can end at any second, that's not a good tradeoff.
Maybe - but for a lot of people, the difference between $60MM and $70MM is neglible. It's not life-changing money. Once you get past a certain point, it just doesn't matter as much. Yeah, his football season sucked, but how much did he enjoy being a college kid for another year rather than being a professional QB? As The Cat pointed out earlier, who is the last QB that had some kind of career ending injury? Bradford was as bad as it gets - repeat shoulder problems along with concerns that he was immobile - and still didn't lose a bit of his standing.
