[Basketball Prospectus] Rebuild? Discussion on the "Success Cycle"

why do you guys talking about championship?

Rockets had only won one playoff series in 14 years.

You need tanking to get the win.

Or at least, you need tanking to get on national TV more than once in two years.

as to the championship, long way ahead. nobody knows.

 

The problem is that Wade and Duncan come around once a decade.

There's probably only one franchise player every 2 years, that's 28 lottery teams trying to get one player. That's a bad reason to tank, the proof is in the pudding, Clippers have been in the lottery for ever and they continue to suck, bobcats, twolves, grizzlies, raptors, knicks, nets, etc... the list goes on and on.

 

One player? Really? Wade was passed up by 4 lottery teams. Kobe was projected 8th and would have been passed up 7 teams, if it wasn't for his threats.

Pierce was passed up by 9 teams. Every teams draft board is different.

 

So how many franchise players were drafted between 1990 and 2000?

 

If only drafts were so easy as picking the consensus #1 pick, then most NBA teams could fire their entire scouting dept. We could just go by mock drafts by sportswriters and know the #1 pick is always the best player in the draft, even though some GMs and scouts rate that same guy as 2nd-13th.

 

How many teams have one without having a star player from the draft from 1990-2000? 1 team, where Kobe demanded to only go to that team or Italy.

 

All of them other than the Spurs?

Shaq, changed teams twice
KG changed teams
Billups changed teams

 

There were at least 20 all-stars. Does Iverson count?

 

Where did I ever say that? my whole point is that you are no better off rebuilding than trying to improve the team. There is no "rebuilding" plan that is better than just trying to impove the team.

 

Jordan was drafted
Duncan was drafted
Hakeem was drafted.

KG and the timberwolves were playoff fodder in 1990-2000
Billups was picked up in the draft for the Celtics but didn't win until the Pistons.
Shaq won with Kobe, who was acquired in a draft day trade.

 

All-stars are not franchise players. Franchise players are the supposedly alpha dogs that you can build a championship team around.

 

Irrelevant to how to build a team today, this was pre-draft lottery, pre salary cap, pre luxury tax, pre-free agency.

 

Can you build a championship around Iverson, or Weber, or Grant Hill? Do they count as a franchise player if they get injured before their peak?

 

So not for 20+ something years and in a completely different era. Good to know.

If they never "drafted" Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and KG never happen. If they never had a "rebuilding" season, Ray Allen doesn't happen.

the Heat were awful the year they drafted Wade, who was their best player on the championship team. They were able to trade for Shaq by signing Odom as a FA and drafting Butler, a lottery pick (obviously from a losing season).

What's the moral of the story? Find a franchise player and acquire enough assets to surround him with to build a championship roster. Just because you're "building" through the draft doesn't mean you make every draft pick and play them (Thunder); you can use your high draft picks to help you acquire other stars to surround your franchise player with. Of course, it doesn't matter in the Rockets instance because they have no franchise player.. that's kinda the problem.

And if you want to bring up the Detroit Pistons, I'd love to hear your plan of how the Rockets will have the best defense in the NBA, just like the Pistons did. The Pistons didn't win the championship because of a great offense -- they were the best defensive team in the NBA. You're not going to get to that level with Brooks, Martin, and Scola as your mainstays.. which is why I've been calling for the Rockets to break up that core.

 

Well, you asked about teams from 1990-2000. All those teams were lead by the old rules. You knew it was a trap question.

 

KG, Duncan, AI, Pierce, Dirk, Kobe, Shaq, TMAC, Ray Allen, Kidd, Grant Hill, Webber, Mourning, Deke, Payton, Nash.

 

Now you are just being a jerk, by making up questions to trap people and show everybody how smart you are and that you are always right.

 

Here's the thing, let's accept that all these guys are franchise players, which is not true. Most of these guys were traded or acquired in Free Agency in their PRIMEs.

Only Payton, Dirk, Kobe and Duncan were with their teams throughout their primes. Which says something about these players that the teams that drafted these franchise players were willing to trade them in their primes.

Also means that it's just as likely, maybe even moreso to acquire franchise players without having to tank.

But then again I think less than half of these players are true Franchise players.

 

my point is that we look with rose colored glasse at recent players. Everyone think of Derrick Rose or Deron Williams as franchise players, but will they ultimately be better than Penny Hardaway or Kevin Johnson?

 

What most fans mean when they say "rebuilding" is to trade away "good players" for draft picks or "potential" and hope their teams suck enough to get a high draft pick.

The Heat or celtics never did that, they didn't trade players for "potential" or "draft picks", they were always trying to win.