Top thriller writer Tom Cain imagines what would happen if the North and South Korea stand-off detonated the world's First Nuclear War in this fictional account. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...e--Start-First-Nuclear-War.html#ixzz16WMX4QpP
The problem with this article seriously overestimates the military strength of the North Koreans and underestimates that of the South. The author also does not have a clear understanding of the Chinese and North Korean relationship. The South Koreans could crush the North Koreans without any American support, although it would be costly there is no doubt who will be the victor should such conflict arises. The only reason it has not done so is because it is unwilling to deal with the potential result of having to feed 24 million North Koreans and being responsible for North Korea's crippled economy while dragging down its own flourishing economy. The problem is that the North Koreans knows this and is using this to their advantage, using military provocation knowing full well that the South would not retaliate with their full military might. This is all done to put the North in the strongest position possible given the looming succession of power from Kim Jongil to his son.
I think the author of the article is still under the belief that the current Chinese regime act the same way as when Mao was in power. The current regime is lead by technocrats who won't throw away China's booming economy for the sake of ideology.
To me, it seems a great deal of scary scenarios are caused out of rampant SPECULATIONS of the "What-ifs" in the first place. Maybe not in actual armed combat, but definitely in other areas of life. Most of its done to be informative taking a deeper look into scenarios and meant to be precautionary. It can also BREED the very paranoia about threats real or perceived that causes sides to pick up weaponry and antagonize for self-preservation. Like a bit of self-fulfilling prophecy. Best to be prepared to be safe, but there isn't always fire where there's smoke. If all you give is the dystopia, people will believe it over time.
That doesn't explain why tens of thousands of US forces are needed to be stationed in South Korea. I think your view on China is too simplistic. PRC was forced to be dragged into the Korea War. After the 2nd Sino-Japanese War (part of WWII) and a civil war with the Chiang's Nationalist, neither the leaders of PRC nor its people were in appetite for another major war. Although the post to which you replied merely described an unlikely, hypothetical situation, if nukes were to dropped in China's backyard by the U.S, China will react forcefully in kind, and it won't be pretty. It doesn't matter who are in charge, as this is not a matter of ideology.
It's not that China has not. Meanwhile, perhaps the U.S. and South Korea should stop provoking the North, knowing its leader is lunatic?
In a unilateral invasion by the North what would China do? And what could China do? This assumes NK has gone crazy, which is not probable, but possible. I think this scary doomsday account could actually happen with real chance. If US-South cannot wipe out NK quickly while NK inflicts damages on south's infrastructure and thus is forced to threaten to use Nuke , I am not so sure China will remain neutral. Many have long been saying NK's infractions all these years were probes of South's readiness for war, calculated moves. Now if there is 1% sanity left in NK's leadership, most likely they would not embark such a suicide venture. To me the key is not China because it doesn't want a war under its nose, no doubt. The key is NK and duh. If indeed NK attacks all out, there is little China could do.
Hold on...who is provoking whom? Did the South sink a North Korean ship in international waters and kill 46 men just a little while ago? Or was it the other way around? Oh yes, it was. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10129703
They are there to contain China and Russia, to ensure America's sphere of influence is worldwide. What easier excuse is there than a crazy dictator to station a substantial "peace keeping" force in South Korea and Japan.
Conducting war games near NK is not provoking? As to sinking of SK war ship, I am sure you can google. There are many doubts on the "conclusions" of that incident by U.S.-led investigation.
This should show NK has had enough rage to keep itself on the edge. By no means, it is a peace loving godly country that will respond only to unruly provocation from others. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_border_incidents_involving_North_Korea
I don't disagree. But I think in an all-out war involving only the two Koreas, neither side can walk out as a clear victor.
