What's interesting is that this is in a lot of ways like the last team Mike Shanahan had in Denver. A very good offense with lots of young talent and the potential to get even better. And an absolutely atrocious defense. It's like he learned everything that Shanahan did right, but repeated his mistakes too. If this defense was just anywhere close to average, the Texans would probably be 6-2.
It's been a good yardage-gaining offense (top 5) each of the the last few years, but it's never been better than 10th in scoring (17th, 10th, and 11th the last 3 years). That's good, but it's not exactly "this is the only coach that can pull that off" type stuff.
I think they are both a problem personally. His decisions in important moments are still terrible, his clock management is still terrible and he still outthinks himself. My point is that it isn't like he's built some complicated innovated scheme that would die if he wasn't the one running it.
And from the "Be careful what you wish for file" - look at Denver since ousting Shanahan. Just sayin'.... But rankings, when you're discussing mere percentage points, are somewhat irrelevant, don't you think? They're scoring 24 points a game (same as last year) - only 7 teams are scoring more than that (again, discounting % points) with the top number is only 28. So they'd "outscore" 25 teams in this league and "be within a field goal" of six more - that's pretty doggone good.
1. I agree with you. I'm not advocating firing him just yet. But we won't necessarily end up with someone like McHoodie, we might end up with someone like Sean Payton. 2. That second quote was from Major.
Accepting mediocrity because you're afraid of failure is the hallmark of terrible organizations. I don't think rankings are irrelevant at all. If the Texans are scoring 24 points a game, but that ranks 32nd in the league, is that still a good offense? Yes, they are 4 pts / game less than the best team. They are also just 4 pts / game better than 20th place. If 4 pts is not a big amount, then all the offenses are pretty similar; that just means even more so that Kubiak isn't doing anything particularly special.
No one is suggesting that should be their course of action. Just an interesting footnote. It's an unrelaistic scenario though, Major - no team scoring 24/game will ever be ranked 32nd. Right now, on average, the Texans are scoring enough points to beat 80% of the league (their defense notwithstanding). (And just an FYI/interesting sidenote: They were averaging 16.2/game the year before Kubiak.) 4 points is a big amount if you're on the shortend.
10 Teams in the league currently score more per game than the Texans. (31% of the league, not 20%) Once you consider that teams score 18% (4 points) more than normal when playing the Texans, 16 can score enough to beat them on average (17 if you round up with Jaxsonville). 50% of the league. Only 2 (Dallas and Buffalo, 1-15 combined) teams allow more points per game than the Texans. Only 8 teams have a worse Differential than Houston's -31 (combined record 17-47). Tampa Bay is the only team with a winning record that does not have a Differential of +15 or better. 5 teams with a losing record have a better Differential than Houston, and each arguably equal or better than the Texans. If you are ranking the Texans, you wouldn't put them 32nd. 15th is probably the most generous one might realistically give, 22nd the harshest, and 18 might be the most accurate.
Why I have no faith in the Kubiak regime, and haven't the past two seasons: -As good an eye he has for talent on offense, he's dreadful in picking defensive personnel (Okoye, Jackson). His apparent criteria for liking guys is bizarre - he wanted both Pollard and Jackson in the secondary, despite the fact that both are dreadful in coverage. He wanted them for help in the run game. -He's "loyal" beyond a fault and is resistant to competition within the roster. Slaton and Brown were his guys last year, no matter how many goalline/short yardage fumbles they managed. Okoye has been his guy throughout, no matter how pitiful he's been since his rookie year. Jackson is his guy, even though he can't anticipate a break to save his life or catch up to a runaway walrus. Extends to the coaching staff as well. He had to be dragged by his ear before Richard Smith was axed. I promise you he hasn't even warmed the seats of Bush, Dennison, or Gibbs. -He rarely if ever fires up the team/has them prepared. Company excuse man refuses to believe this matters in the NFL, but I'm tired of watching the Texans come out with practice field intensity or blow entire halves with ho hum effort (Washington, Dallas, most of last year's games). Playoff teams either show up with passion (Jets, Ravens, Steelers, etc) or are consistently surgical in their execution (Colts, Pats, etc). The Texans are a hot/cold wishy washy crew that leave you crossing your fingers quarter to quarter, game to game. A head coach is responsible for getting the best out of his players, and usually Kubiak pulls 75%. -(This year) He can't figure out how to mix up his gameplan to take advantage of having both an elite runner as well as an elite receiver paired with a good QB. The run doesn't set up the pass, the pass doesn't set up the run. He can go a game or two not able (willing?) to find ways to get the ball into the hands of this season's best playmaker (Foster). He goes away from the run when facing a porous run defense while his QB is managing a sub-20 rating. He goes away from the run/flats when facing a stout pass defense blitzing like no tomorrow. He has a successful half running all over a team.....then drifts away from it. -No accountability. Blow a game that should have been an automatic win at home? No big deal. Get left 3 times for big plays/scores? Don't sweat it. Threw a costly interception late with bad judgment or dropped your 4th ball? So what. I think you'd have to burn down a church to get benched on this team. McNair doesn't lean on Kubiak for results (87th sellout! You're doing fine.), Kubiak doesn't hold anyone accountable either. We're all winners. I'm going to leave his challenges and 4th down decisions alone. He's brought plenty to the table, he absolutely took us from being a bad joke to being a dangerous team with potential. He has made it clear, in my eyes, that he is not the guy that will take this team to the playoffs. Give me a coach that can't stand losing. Give me a coach that works 80 hour weeks. Give me a coach that expects players to be so drilled in responsibilities that they don't continuously blow assignments and look confused. Give me a coach that is okay with the idea of hiring the best staff members and not just his poker buddies. Give me a coach that yanks a player if they are costing the team games.
And of those 10 teams, 3 of them are scoring, respectively, .7, .5 and .4 more points a game than the Texans – let’s not shave this down to the finest point possible. You know as well as I do that a team that scores 24/game should – with even an average defense – win more than it loses. Last year, 10 teams scored 24/game and only the Giants and, yes: Texans won fewer than 10 games. (And only the Giants didn’t finish above .500.) Those 10 teams averaged 11 wins (even with New York and Houston factored in) and produced the two Super Bowl participants as well as ¾ of the championship game participants. And keep in mind: That’s 24/game the offense is scoring – it’s not being augmented by defensive/special teams scores – or even by key defensive turnovers that hand the offense a short field. That happened this weekend – but it has been rare. But no one is arguing the defense isn’t costing this team games; it absolutely is. Fix the defense even a little bit, and this team is scoring enough points to win more often than it loses. The Jets lost two weeks ago at home, 9-0, and needed OT this past weekend to beat the Lions. The Ravens needed OT to beat Buffalo two weeks ago and started the season by scoring 10 and 10 points/game in their first two games. The Colts were gashed by the very team you claim is rarely prepared/fired up and lost to Jacksonville. And New England just got kicked by the Cleveland Browns. I’m not making a case for Kubiak or the Texans. BUT… I think fans can understandably get a little too wrapped up in their own team’s shenanigans and fail to recognize that their frustrations and seemingly exclusive shortcomings are more common than they realize. Otherwise, I agree with a lot of your post. It’ll be interesting, and probably ultimately frustrating, to watch the final 8 games and see if the team responds. I hope it does, besides the obvious reason, if only because I don’t want to even hint at another possible reboot. Ugh.
You are exactly right. It makes it no less frustrating, though. And a lot of those other organizations have at least ONE SB appearance or even (heaven forbid!) championship. Houston has nothing in terms of football. Just... nothing.
Oh, yeah - I know. I'm not trying to excuse the Texans at all. Just add a little balance to the justifiably upset masses.
