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Why Morey is right...we should never extend any contracts

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by trugoy, Nov 3, 2010.

  1. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Rockets have a policy of not ever extending contracts, i believe that this is the ONLY reasonable course of action for any NBA franchise that wants to win for ONE very good reason.

    Overpaying hurts your team much more than the benefit of getting a bargain helps you.

    Given the structure of the CBA, getting a bargain contract does not really help you unless you are below the salary cap AND have superstars on rookie contracts so you can use a small "window" to sign some players before your cap window closes.

    An example of this is Portland signing andre miller while having Roy, Aldridge and Oden on rookie contracts. Other than this specific scenario, there is no other advantage to underpaying for talent.

    A bargain contract is not any easier to trade than a fair value contract since the bargain "value" does not attract much higher trade value, usually it makes trading more complex since a filler bad contract has to be added to balance the trade. That's why you see very few good players on rookie contracts get traded.

    On the other hand, overpaying a contract can cripple a team for the length of a contract. Aside from the luxury tax implications which can prevent other players from being signed, the major blockage is that the player becomes very hard to trade. And the only way to trade that player is usually to include other players with the overpaid player. That basically means your roster is "locked up" with no room to move.

    So in the case of Aaron brooks, let's say his true value right now is 6 million per year, but he is still improving and he could be worth anything up to $12 million per year if he plays well this year.

    Usually in this scenario, stupid GMs will give Brooks a $8 million extension and build in the improvement into the contract and hope that he meets that improvement. The rationale will be to "lock him up" in case he blows up and really improves.

    This is the sort of logic that leads Mike Conley to get a 5 year $45million extension.

    However this is a stupid decision. If Brooks becomes a $12 million player and you pay him $8 million, then it's nice that you got a bargain, but it doesn't actually help your team that much.

    On the other hand, if he doesn't improve and stays a $6million player, and you are paying him $8 million, it makes him untradeable, locks up your roster, pisses off the fans, and just kills your teams chances to make moves.
     
    3 people like this.
  2. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    The problem with your scenerio is every player or situation is different and should be treated accordingly. You cant have th same stance about every player all the time. This is a cookie cutter deal. Basically, you're saying after the good early years by Yao, if morey were in charge, they would have let him play out his rookie deal? What if he were the gm or the thunder and durant was coming up or even westbrook next season? Now I'm not saying brooks or any other rocket fits in that class of player, but to say we don't do it really puts your team at a disadvantage. The spurs are one of the best run organizations in the entire nba and you would never hear them say that. Maybe thats why they have been way more successful than the rockets also. Everything is about treatment and relationships. They could have let Tony or Manu go out and find a deal, but they didn't this time. With Manu, they did the first time and they matched. The rockets could have the same strategy, but I guess we will see.
     
    #2 leebigez, Nov 3, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2010
  3. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    The counterargument is that letting the market determine a player's salary does not necessarily mean he won't be overpaid. If some other team is willing to overpay for him, and you are forced to match because you really want to keep him, well then you have just overpaid, right?
     
  4. kokopuffs

    kokopuffs Member

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    i dare you to find the ratio of teams which have won a championship with players they've given extensions to, to teams which have won a championship without giving extensions to key players.
     
  5. RV6

    RV6 Member

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    all about flexibility
     
  6. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Extensions make sense for players that are vital to your future success and who you have no intention of trading. The Rockets, more than most teams, like to be active in trade talks. They want to give themselves every opportunity to upgrade their talent. As a result, they are less attached to their players. But if they had a legit star without injury concerns, I could see them extending him. Right now, they're saying as a rule they won't give extensions. There's always exceptions to rules.
     
  7. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    Thats my point in this whole deal.The rockets overpayed for lowry because cleveland had extra money. In a progressive world, lowry would make 4m, not 5.5. I also think the contracts of amir johnson,darko, and the international team boosted scola's contract. Now I'm not saying he's over paid, but I don't think the rockets thought he would get almost 8m in the 1st yr. In football, the raiders gave tommie kelly a huge deal right before haynsworth and other better players shook loose. Alot of gm's were shaking their head at the deal because he was avg and was paid like a defensive player of the year. No one made the redskins overpay for haynesworth, but it punched the ticket for him getting out of nashville. After the first franchise tag, the titans had a chance at a good deal, but didn't even negotiate with the guy. The Kelly deal then just killed any thought of him staying in nashville. They've since recovered,but they couldve avoided all of it by being aggressive.
     
  8. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    Another argument is you have to get to the 25% rule. Think about how man contracts the rockets would have to give up to get to anthony's salary.
     
  9. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Extensions only make sense for those people whose true value far exceed the max salary, the so called franchise players. Because their true value exceeds the artificial cap of the max salary, it doesn't matter if you extend them or not, because you can never overpay them, in effect, the CBA protects teams from overpaying the top players.

    If however, there is no Max salary and you can pay any player any amount, I would argue that even top players should not be extended.
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    They could, in theory, pull it off with just a couple contracts. Martin + Jeffries + draft picks, for instance. Not saying Denver would go for that.
     
  11. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    Good thread
     
  12. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    Thats my point, jeffries is overpaid, but he's not a bad player. He's a 4m player probably, but he's overpaid. His bad contract can be used in a trade.
     
  13. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    The thing is that if another team is willing to pay your player the same amount, i.e. lowry with cavs, and supposedly Nets with scola. Then in effect they are not overpaid, since the market has determined their value, i.e. another team other than the rockets has valued them at the same salary.

    So assuming things don't change, we could easily trade Lowry to the cavs and Scola to the nets for the contract they signed. In essense they are not overpaid.
     
  14. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    exactly, his bad contract cost the knicks carmelo anthony and jordan hill :eek:
     
  15. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Member

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    Like I just said in another thread, you're not going to give your very nice girlfriend a big ring when you have your sights set on some possible super models. Even if drawing it out until your girlfriend gives you an ultimatum ends up in you paying more to her, its still about the window of opportunity and flexibility of acquiring the high quality.
     
  16. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    if you match a salary, then that guy is not overpaid, since there is at least one other team that values him at that salary.

    If he is truly overpaid, i.e. you are not willing to match, then you should be glad to not match, because that overpaid bad contract will cripple that franchise and not yours.
     
  17. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    My problem with the way you're thinking about this is every player fits in a box. Let me use Kevin Martin as an example. The kings signed martin aug 29th 2007 to a 5yr 55m extension. If you look at his trajectory, it was almost the same as brooks. He was drafted in 2004 late in the draft. He avg 2.9,10.8, then boom 20ppg. That summer, they gave him the extension. The next year, he put up 24ppg. The kings were progressive and signed martin probably at or a littl below the going rate for a player of his caliber. Had they waited until after his 24ppg explosion, what do you think his market value would've been? Now, it didn't work out for him in sacramento, but most will agree he's paid about right especially if he stays on the court. He's not a max guy or a superstar, but he's a near all star caliber sg. By your reasoning, morey wouldn't have ever did what petrie did, right?
     
  18. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    You think so? You don't think the 12m eddy curry makes had anything to do with that? You don't think the managments decision had anything to do with it either. If they were truly smart about it and just thought about getting 1 guy this year and 1 guy next year, they would still have jordan hill and their picks. They could have curry and jeffries coming off the books after this season.
     
  19. orbb

    orbb Member

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    If the talent is good enough to help you win it all, you should expect to over-pay for it. Any organization that want to win (it all) has to take the risk. No team has ever bargained their way to a championship caliber squad, which is why I'm calling BS on Morey not extending contracts. IMO, its all about being cheap, and saving money for the franchise, winning be damned. Unless Les/Morey have a change of heart, we are the the decade's clippers - a perennial "potential threat", nothing more.
     
  20. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    I don't know what Morey plans are with Brooks. I don't know the Rockets long term plan. I have been very impressed so far with Morey's moves and his long term manuvering. Therefore, I trust what he is doing.
     

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