ESPN has new player ratings for all 30 teams, was wondering if someone with insider could post the player ratings for the Rockets?
AARON BROOKS, PG Projection: 21.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.5 ast per 40 min; 16.27 PER | Player card • Tiny, lightning quick point guard who also can step back and shoot 3s. • Penetrates easily, but has poor court vision and tends to overdribble. • Size a constant issue on defense; quickness less of a factor than it is offensively. Brooks could always blow by people, but his improvement as a long-range shooter was the key to his winning the Most Improved Player Award. He hit only 33 percent as a rookie but improved to 39.8 percent last season on much greater volume -- in fact his 208 3-pointers led the league. He was an efficient scorer, too, ranking in the top third of point guards in TS% while averaging a sterling 22.4 points per 40 minutes. Now, about those other four guys. Brooks is what scouts call a "pounder" -- he'll take ten dribbles looking for a shot before finally giving it up, and when he does it's not necessarily for a great look. His pure point rating was only 60th out of 71 point guards, his assist ratio 62nd. You could excuse it last season since he was one of the few Rockets who could create his own shot, but if he ignores that giant 7-6 guy in the middle, it's going to be a problem. KEVIN MARTIN, SG Projection: 22.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 17.32 PER | Player card • Remarkably efficient shooter despite unorthodox, left-leaning delivery off hip. • Excels at drawing fouls with fantastic shot fake, but rarely creates for others. • Awful defender who needs to improve strength, recognition and effort. After two straight seasons in the 40s, Martin's 3-point stroke abandoned him last season, and he finished at 33.3 percent. So while he remained one of the game's top foul magnets, his TS% fell below 60 for the first time in five years. Looking ahead, the bigger worry may be the impact of all those fouls on his body, as he's missed 88 games over the past three seasons with a variety of injuries. Martin has a very slight build and often has bigger players land on him when they fall for his deceptive shot fakes. One has to worry about the cumulative impact of all those hits. The other worry is his defense. Sacramento wasn't exactly the Van Gundy Academy of Defensive Fundamentals, so perhaps he'll be more competent (and accountable) in Houston's system, but Martin often dogged it on D last year and doesn't have the talent to get away with it. Both Sacramento and Houston defended substantially better when he was off the court. SHANE BATTIER, SF Projection: 9.0 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 10.79 PER | Player card • Incredibly smart player who rarely takes a bad shot or a bad gamble. • Decent shooter from corners but can't create own shot or finish at rim. • Length, smarts make him outstanding defender despite modest athleticism. Between foot trouble and age, Battier clearly isn't the defensive force he was a couple of years ago -- his once-phenomenal plus-minus ratings were merely decent, and at times he gave way to Ariza as a defensive stopper. But he still does some subtle things really well. He's an excellent team defender who is never out of position. He's a very underrated passer who was fourth among small forwards in pure point rating; with Yao Ming coming back, Battier's ability to enter the ball into the post should prove helpful. And while his offensive production was anemic (9.9 points 40 minutes), his corner 3-point threat (38 percent on corner 3s) still commands defenses' respect. LUIS SCOLA, PF Projection: 18.2 pts, 10.7 reb, 2.4 ast per 40 min; 16.05 PER | Player card • Clever left-block post scorer who loves to scoop ball under opponent's arm. • Has accurate midrange set shot, and can score at rim despite poor elevation. • Average athlete who gambles too much on defense and struggles guarding post. Scola took full advantage of Yao Ming's absence, becoming a go-to scorer in the post and adding three points to his 40-minute scoring rate with virtually no loss in efficiency. Along the way he earned the nickname "The Ice-Cream Man" for his habit of scooping shots around and under a defender's arm and off the backboard. The question now is how long he can keep this up. Undersized power forwards tend to have a horrible time in their early 30s; Scola just turned 30. While his offensive game isn't dependent on athleticism, defensively he's at his outer limits when he guards high-scoring 4s. Upon Yao's return, Scola also is likely to give back a few points from last year's scoring increase, which will leave him with more spot-up jumpers from the top of the key. YAO MING, C No projection | Player card • Overwhelming size, shooting accuracy make turnaround J unguardable. • Great foul shooter, willing passer, but struggles to get open vs. fronting defenses. • Size an asset in protecting rim, but lack of speed, mobility exposed outside paint. Yao missed all of last season after undergoing surgery for a broken foot. His ability to come back is obviously paramount to Houston's hopes, but unless he comes back a foot shorter, he should be fine. Size and shooting ability are the two prime indicators of career length; Yao is the biggest player in the league and one of its better midrange shooters. The Rockets say they are going to limit him to 24 minutes, but he should be effective. KYLE LOWRY, PG Projection: 15.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 6.8 ast per 40 min; 15.92 PER | Player card • Energetic but overly-aggressive defender at times. Loves to take charges. • Likes to push ball in transition but needs to improve decisions on break. • Phenomenal rebounder for size; draws fouls in bunches but weak outside shooter. Those last two bullet items on Lowry are the most important -- he's only 6-0 but plays like he's much bigger. Lowry came in second among point guards in rebound rate last season and led the position in free-throw attempts per field goal attempt. On the negative side, he launched too many 3s for a guy who can't make them (2.0 per game, 27.2 percent). Thus his TS% was only average, while a high turnover rate offset some of the benefits from his dynamic penetration skills. Lowry also fouls far too often, especially since his rates of steals are ordinary. He likes to take charges and is quite good at it -- on a per-minute basis, only three players in the league drew more offensive fouls -- but the drawback is that he was seventh among point guards in fouls per minute. COURTNEY LEE, SG Projection: 14.3 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.0 ast per 40 min; 12.30 PER | Player card • Solid wing defender who can check most 2s despite middling athleticism. • Good outside shooter, but better from midrange than long distance. • Good finisher at basket but lacks the burst or ball skills to get there often. Lee made 44.4 percent of his long 2s but slumped to 33.8 percent on 3s; he can be a much more valuable player if he establishes himself as a 40 percent 3-point shooter -- something he accomplished as a rookie in Orlando. Otherwise, we pretty much know the story with Lee after just two seasons. He's a good defender but not a dominating one. He'll hit open shots but won't create that many. In short, he's a near-perfect role-playing wing, but he has very little chance of moving up in the world. Regardless, he'll last a decade and make tens of millions of dollars if he keeps sticking Js. BRAD MILLER, C Projection: 14.0 pts, 8.5 reb, 3.3 ast per 40 min; 12.93 PER | Player card • Skilled high-post operator who can shoot, pass, and fake way to free throw line. • Slow plodder who is a major liability on defense and struggles to finish at rim. • Willingly gives up body and fouls in post D but no longer rebounds well. Miller played all 82 games, but played very few of them effectively. At 34, one has to wonder if the end is closing in. Of particular concern is the total evaporation in Miller's rebound rate; a solid center in that department for most of his career, he was 57th out of the league's 64 centers last season, indicating whatever athleticism he has left may be on the wane. Only five centers blocked shots less often, although he was one of the better centers at taking charges. The other big problem is that he couldn't put the ball in the hole, which is the main reason he's on the floor. Miller slumped to 28 percent on 3s and 37.5 percent on long 2s, leading to a career-low 43 percent mark overall. The good news for Houston is that those numbers should rebound this season; if they do, he'll be a decent backup center. PATRICK PATTERSON, PF No projection | Player card • Long, physical rebounder whose smarts fit Houston's team concept. • Solid defender who can jump. Can finish at the rim on offense. • May struggle to score at NBA level due to limited offensive arsenal. I can't say I'm crazy about Patterson's upside, but he did show a nascent 3-point stroke in his last season at Kentucky, and if he hits jump shots in the pros, he might be a long-term starter because of his defensive ability. He should get chances right away given the Rockets' need for size off the bench. JARED JEFFRIES, PF Projection: 8.0 pts, 6.4 reb, 2.2 ast per 40 min; 9.10 PER | Player card • Long-armed, multi-position defender who excels at taking charges. • Weak in every facet offensively, with special penchant for missing layups. • Surprisingly poor rebounder considering height and length. The best Jeffries highlight was the Knicks' near-comic efforts to talk him up in the vain hope of getting something of value for him at the trade deadline. Jeffries is a helpful team defender who gets a lot of deflections and takes a ton of charges, but he's as void of offensive value as any player in the league -- he finished 62nd out of 63 power forwards in usage rate and 49th in TS%. But oh, can he take charges. Jeffries led the NBA by drawing 62 charges last season; on a per-minute basis, he rated second only to Oklahoma City's Nick Collison (see Collison comment). As a result, he's a useful situational defensive player. Of course, at $6.8 million, he costs about ten times as much as most players who fill that role. CHUCK HAYES, C Projection: 7.4 pts, 10.2 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 10.82 PER | Player card • Grossly undersized center uses strength/leverage to force opponents off block. • Rebounds well for size. Won't block shots but has quick hands and takes charges. • Shooting range ends at charge circle; lack of explosion limits finishing skill. One of Houston's biggest projects last season was to re-engage Hayes offensively. He had completely lost confidence in his shot -- even in his ability to make layups -- and his reluctance to shoot made him a colossal liability. Starting in place of Yao Ming last season, however, he upped his output to 8.5 points per 40 minutes -- still terrible, yes, but nearly double what he produced a year earlier. Hayes is a plus everywhere else. He's an outstanding team defender, ranked fifth among centers in steals per minute, posted a decent Rebound Rate despite his small stature, and landed third among centers in Pure Point Rating. He shouldn't be a starter, but as a post defender off the bench, he provides plenty of value despite his limited offensive output. CHASE BUDINGER, SF Projection: 17.7 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.5 ast per 40 min; 14.59 PER | Player card • Promising, athletic wing who can run floor, jump and shoot from outside. • Needs a wider array of ball skills and moves to fulfill offensive potential. • Must add strength and intensity on D. Lateral movement still a question mark. Budinger was a nice surprise as a second-round pick, largely because he can create shots without turnovers. He climbed into the top third of forwards in usage rate but had the fifth-lowest turnover rate, and he shot a decent percentage. His TS% should improve once he learns to draw fouls; only six small forwards got to the line less often on a per-field-goal-attempt basis. His 3-point percentage may improve too, as many players make large gains in their second season once they've adjusted to the longer NBA line. If so, he'll be one of the league's more potent bench scorers; in fact, he could take over the starting gig at small forward. JORDAN HILL, PF Projection: 15.4 pts, 10.9 reb, 1.5 ast per 40 min; 14.80 PER | Player card • Classic energy payer who crashes offensive boards and blocks shots. • Offensive game mostly limited to jab-step for 15-footers; needs post game. • Lack of strength resulted in high foul rate; must add strength. Viewed as a bust in New York, Hill wasn't bad at all for a rookie power forward based on his overall numbers. He was fourth at his position in offensive rebound rate, 16th in blocks, and his scoring numbers (15.6 per 40 minutes) were very respectable. Hill fouled entirely too often -- more than once every seven minutes -- and his lack of strength makes him a suspect post defender, but that can be addressed by pumping iron. He's not a star by any means, but he'll be a useful rotation player. New York just gave up on him too quickly. JERMAINE TAYLOR, G No projection | Player card • Athletic guard who seemed a step behind other rookies in grasp of NBA game. • Undersized wing with scorer's mentality. Sound and fury signifying nothing. Taylor is one of the team's best athletes and attacks every chance he gets, but he doesn't seem to have any clue yet how to play. The second-round pick might need to go someplace overseas for a couple of years and hone his skills before he gives the NBA another shot.
Oh, missed the part that they were PERs. Oops. I don't see Brooks getting as much as last year though.
ahh ok. i was thinking dammmmmmmmmn 45 points from our back court this year. lebrona heats watch the hell out.
Pretty good assessments, though JT appears to have significantly improved since last season. Also, Hayes in his 1v1 drills against Yao appears to have improved his offense significantly. Miller should do good assuming he plays backup minutes and Martin is supposedly draining threes again. Life looks good so far.
The PPG projections seem to work out well. PG Assume Brooks at 24 MPG & Lowry at 24 MPG works out to an average of 18.58 points per 40 min. SG Assume Martin 2/3 of the time (32 MPG) and Lee 1/3 of the time (16 MPG) works out to a weighted average of 20.0 points per 40 min. SF Assume 50/50 split of Battier & Chase (24 MPG each) works out to an average of 13.35 points per 40 min. PF Assume Scola 2/3 of the time (32 MPG) and some combo of Patterson, Hill, and Hayes (assume like 12 points per 40 min for that backup trio) works out to a weighted average of 16.13 points per 40 min. C Assume 50/50 split of Yao and Miller (24 MPG each) gives an average of 29.5 points per 40 min. I assumed Yao at 25 points per 40 min. Totals 87.55 points per 40 min = 105.07 points per 48 min. The Rox averaged 102.4 points per game last year.
Don't agree with what he said about Courtney Lee. Why do people keep underrating this guy's athleticism? He's got ups and good speed. He even said himself that he's the fastest guy on the team even though I doubt it.
Oops, those are Jordan Hill's projections. But actually, they sound about right on a per 40 mins basis. Maybe we are (or I am) underrating him.
With the exception of his assists (1.3), those numbers are lower than his actual per-40 minute production last year.
Haha I know someone needs to make a photo of Hayes with "Shooting range ends at charge circle" at the bottom... :grin:
