Goldman sold some <i>funky</i> stuff to others and found a <i>chump</i> in AIGFP to protect them. They changed to being a <i>Bank holding company</i> so they could get funding access through the Fed window. Those types of actions aren't what I think of when the word <i>professional</i> is used. The <i>professionals</i> at Bear and Lehman lost a <i>few dollars</i> and cratered their companies. As Goldman and Morgan Shift, a Wall St. Era Ends In Fall 2008, didn't Cohen at SAC tell some of his traders to go home because they were just <i>mucking</i> things up? John Paulson made serious money a few years by being on the right side of <i>sucker bets</i>. Lately, he isn't doing nearly as well. Paulson Funds Said Hit by Steep Losses in June <hr> I realize that your POV is from the professional side, but losses aren't limited solely to amateurs. There is plenty of <i>dumb money</i> on the professional side.
I got some off on that 10AM number, and now moved my stop to the high of the day. Should be at least a trade to the 1100 range. However, hoping this is the hold, or kill.
Got some off: entered a portion of the position(short) Trade: A short term move, just playing the waves Hold/Kill: THE top, holding on for long term As I am writing this post though, Bonds have continued to weaken, which makes me a bit more cautious about this short.
TLT is probably the most widely followed. It is currently trading as risk aversion, so for the market to break down, it needs to break to the upside. Which is not happening right now. Which makes me cautious about shorting. Bonds don't always have to represent safety, but lately it has, and has been trading inverse to risk(stocks). Look for divergencies between the two for potential turning points- intermarket analysis.
Mango, I know some of the guys you follow have pointed out a positive divergence in the McClellan Oscillator on our last pivot low. That was a standard, Type I divergence: Positive- Index makes lower low, McClellan Oscillator makes higher low Negative- Index makes higher high, McClellan Oscillator makes lower high My question is, are those guys aware of, or use at all, Type II divergencies? If yes, in their experiences how is the reliability of Type II? Type II divergence: Positive- Index makes higher low, McClellan Oscillator makes lower low Negative- Index makes lower high, McClellan Oscillator makes higher high If they/you are aware of Type II, take a look at the market compared to the McCellan Oscillator now. We are currently negatively divergING, with the Oscillator at a 15 month high, while the Index is still below the last pivot high. Notice it is divergING and there has not been a diverGENCE, as that would need further confirmation. If we continue higher, the negative diverging can be worked off. If we fail here, the diverging will become a divergence. Thoughts?
Do you guys recommend any particular charting software? I kinda of want something more precise than stockcharts.com.
They never make mention of Type II divergences. At the moment, some are wildly Bullish and others are slightly Bullish. None in that group are Bears (at this particular point in time, but subject to change). I see the diverging that you have pointed out.
We have hit our target for a trade, which was a healthy 20 point profit. I am seeing some conflicting signals for longer term: Bonds still showing weakness- bullish for equities? Tech and AAPL collapsing- very weak for equities VIX reversing off of its 200SMA- very weak for equities NDX at 200SMA- potential support? Since we can never guarantee a trade's success, only playing the odds, it makes sense to cover a portion here due to the confusion. So I am out of 1/4 of the position I put on at 1115-20. Remember our previous trade, the short at 1100, was also handled in similar fashion. Our initial target for a trade then was 1060, which was hit and a portion was covered for a 40 point gain. With the remaining portion held on for a potential long term move lower. That thesis has turned out completely wrong, as we've since broken higher to 1120. HOWEVER, consistent with the point I keep trying to make to you guys, it is NOT about being right or wrong on any given trade, but rather the process and technique in handling every trade. If we can make 40 points on a portion and breakeven on the rest on a trade we were completely wrong on, that is the key to long term sustainability. So again, for the current trade we are in, we've taken a 20+ point profit on a portion, and the rest we have a breakeven stop for a potential profit of who knows what. Another key to this technique is that we have taken ZERO pain. This is due to the great levels and prices that we've gotten from our TA work. So that even if we are wrong, we will know instantaneously(3 point stoploss), or if we are lucky, still get away with a profit or breakeven, like we have been. I cannot stress the importance of this more, as it is the only way to trade with high leverage. With quantifiable, and minimal risk.
Don't know what is keeping the market up today. The 10 & 30 year looks like they are about to roll over. Kinda frustrating the last three trading sessions, been shorting on each rally and here comes these monster moves upward. PPT at its finest I guess.
PPT? sorry to hear you use that excuse. so explain to me why you think the 10 and 30 look like they are on the verge of rolling over. remember, it's summer time. you can't get wrapped up in every little move of the market right now. take your time and pick your spots.
A monthly seasonality map had this projected to be a day for Bullish action. Monthly Seasonality Maps
High on ES so far 1119.75, 0.5 away from our stop lol. Good thing we took some off on Thursday 1095-1100, it pays to be a trader, not a prophet.
Well, say it ain't so. Guess I am waiting for August 21st if I want to short! EDIT: I think that coincides with Charles Nenner's target for a top too.
I've been following that thing since you posted the June one. June proved pretty accurate, but July was a total disaster. It will be interesting to see how it goes in August.
