Will Morey's prediction be proven right, or proven wrong?

The over/under in Vegas is 66 wins....I would SOOOO take the under.

DD

 

That's a tall order for any team.... I doubt the Three Amigos will achieve that
in their first season ....unless they bring Delonte on board to mentor Lebron... :grin:

 

Whatever

Even if they win every championship for the next 5 years, they'll still never be champions.

A real champion plays against real competition and against all odds fights through it all.

 

66 wins? Geez. Vegas makes so much money off of stupid people it's crazy. I'd take the under on that too, for this upcoming season.

I still think they'll be highly successful and will likely get to the finals assuming they attract vets that take serious paycuts to play with them. But again, I think they'll be beatable in a 7 game series.

And as one poster put it this morning, though it's a stretch to say we're locks for getting to the finals, Houston is still currently built to beat them in a series with them having no match for Yao or Brooks and our wings able to play serious defense against their wings.

 

One thing not to be underestimated here. Every team they play will be looking to beat them with added fervor. They will be played against as though they were the reining champions and everyone is going to do their best to take them down a notch. And while the big 3 may have some chemistry together, the rest of the team will be starting at ground zero. As far as how many wins will they have, its premature to forecast that at least until we see who rounds out the roster. The things that come to mind based on a team built this way is this:

1) When all 3 are in the game, they are going to make deep runs on people. Build big early leads, a good percentage of the time. They will be a team of spurts.
2) What toll will high minutes by 3 players have? What kind of shape will they be in by playoff time? What will the injury history look like by then?
3) How fast or how well will the chemistry gel?
4) How many points a game are the reserves getting per game? Is it a team thats all up to 3 players to make 90% of the scoring?

All this and more could make this a 40 win team or 60 win team. What do I personally think?

I believe they will have the best starting 5 in the league. But will have a below average bench. I believe the chemistry will be surprisingly good early, but may take on some bumps later in the season. Between the big 3, 15-20 games will be missed. They will struggle in situations where only one is in the game.

At least 2 or 3 of the crowd outside of the big 3 are going to have to make consistent contributions for this to work.

 

They're in the east.

Need to see the full team though.

 

Let me put it this way...LeBron + Delonte, Mo, Z, Verajao got 66 wins in 2008-09. Think about that.

 

I think it's probably ball park right, assuming no major injuries to the Big 3. If one of them goes down for extended time, this team is going to be very, very bad.

With no MLE and no cap space left, the Heat can hand out minimum contracts only. Maybe they can entice a few players to join the stellar Big 3, but I think they have a few things going against them.

1) The market. Role players are getting some nice checks right now. When Darko gets 20 million, there is money to be had. The upper tier of role players are going to get paid while the getting is good. As the last lockout proved, NBA players live very paycheck to paycheck, and few resist the opportunity to cash in at contract time.

2) The lockout. It's coming after the season. The owners know it. The players know it. It will probably wipe out next season or most of it, which means smaller salaries next year or possibly no salary next year. See point 1. Players are even more likely to take the money this offseason.

3) The new CBA. What is the new CBA going to look like? Nobody knows. A hard cap is a possibility, and one that Stern wants. Maybe he axes the MLE or the year over year increases. Maybe he axes a year or two of the maximum length of a contract. Stern is going to put the screws to the Union, and while the Players might talk a good game, deep down they know he will succeed. He will break them down, sweat them out, watch their money dwindle, and then the Owners will get everything they want.

Who knows if some of the better role players will even have the opportunity to cash in down the road. Do they play a year on the cheap for an uncertain chance to get their paycheck down the road? History tells us know.

The Heat will get players to come play in Miami, but I think they're looking at the Rafer Alsons and Luther Heads versus Shaq and Mike Miller. With a team made up of stiffs, it's going to be difficult for them to compete against teams that will bring their A game most nights against the Heat. The Big 3 can only play so many minutes, and they can't play together all game long. Surely, they'll try to keep one it all times, which means they'll play maybe 15-25 minutes with just 2 or fewer of their stars on the floor at a time. Good luck with that.

I figure that even the Big 3 is relatively healthy, they'll probably all miss a handful of games (probably one will miss 10+ games). Can they weather the loss of one of their horses? It'll be tough with a skeleton crew backing them up.

There will be the pressure of the coach if they are not on fire. When will Riley take over? That will wear on that team as well as sky expectations from Miami and the media.

Lastly, I do question how LeBron and Wade will play together. Bosh will be more complementary, but even he might chafe a bit at the lack of touches. One of LeBron and Wade will need to be the alpha dog. LeBron has the more complementary, all-around, Oscar Robertson type game, but I think he would bridle at the notion of him being second fiddle on this squad. Egos will act up, and that will cost this team at some point.

 

oh god, get over it...

championships are not guaranteed, their will be more than capable competition

anyways im going with an 80 wins, they lose to houston both times

 

james and wade have taken teams to 45 plus wins with scrubs their whole career, moreys prediction is ridiculous and total bs trying to make them worry about joining up.

even if james or wade goes down as long as one of them is playing they will be able to go back to iso on top of the key and no one save for a team with a great defense can stop them. and lets face it, these days there is like 5 teams that attempt to play defense and 1 to 2 that are actually good at it.

 

Did Morey really say 45 wins?

I can't see him saying that.

 

they may have a killer regular season, but they won't be built for the playoffs. when they have off nights, or miss shots, who is going to bail them out, they need quality players to keep the lead when they are on the bench, defend when they are too fatigued from taking the entire offensive load on their shoulders.

next year is gon be interesttttting! it may work out, it may not, but i'm more focused on our team than theirs

 

Morey was making a sales pitch. You can skew stats any way you want. I doubt he seriously thought the Big 3 would sign together. Besides I don't think that prediction is valid anymore. The salary cap came in higher than everyone thought. So Miami has enough room to sign the big 3 and Mike Miller.

Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Miller, Chalmers, 7 minimum players > 45 wins.

Is that team good enough to win a title? Who knows, but I figure when you have 2 of the top 5 players in the league and another top 15-20, you can scrape together more than 45 wins.

 

he'll be proven wrong and then all the 'In Morey we trust' "He is a God" clowns on this forum will commit mass suicide.

 

What exactly am I supposed to be getting over? That there won't be enough competition? Read it again. That's not what I said.

Also, if they're supposed to win 80 wins as you're suggesting, than where is this "capable competition" you're talking about?

 

Duh, the Rockets.

 

The Heat won 47 last year. Wade was playing alone. I'm seeing 60+ this year. They might hit 70.

 

No way in hell they win 66. Not this year anyway.

 

Wrong. But not by much, I think they'll end up winning 52 games....they'll make some noise in the playoffs though....they'll make it to the finals.....but they'll lose.......to US

Clutch City Returns.

 

People have forgotten both Wade and Lebron were winning even thou, that didn't have a lot of help. Now that they have help, not only will it win them more games, but it will prolong their careers by 2-3 more years. No longer will Wade, Bron, Bosh need to try to score 30+ every game etc to win games, and for Wade, this is the key. He was getting worn out, trying to everything to win games for Miami with no help. The players will be more fresh, as they wont have such a huge load every game.
Together they will be able to help each other out, and over the next 2-3 years they will get the role players they need.
They will all sign for 6 years, so they will build a team over the course of the years, and they will only get better. They will have MLE etc, over the course of the next 6 years, and players will be lining up to sign with them.