The Rockets made some excellent moves. These were not mistakes!

Sherlock · Jun 29, 2000

The Rockets are rebuilding a team. They made the right moves in the draft today. This is a classic case of choosing long term gain over short term gratification, even though it dissappoints many of us who were pumped about possibilities in this year's draft.

They wanted to move up, but since there were only a few great starters in this draft, the value of the top 6 spots was beyond their worth. The only players that could become starters on a future championship Houston team were: Martin, Swift, Fizer, Miles, Miller and Johnson. Guess who the first 6 picks in the draft were?

After that there were some players that other teams could use as starters, but not Houston. Our best move was to trade with someone who needed a player left on the board, and get the most possible value. Next year's draft is incredibly deep, probably the best since 1992, probably since Dream and Jordan came out. This year there were 6 players. Next year there will be 30. This year, there were starting centers, which is the position we need the most, since we are losing Dream. Next year there will probably be 6-11 Eddy Curry (they call him Baby Shaq), 7-1 Tyson Chandler (they are comparing him to Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem), 7-0 Loren Woods, 7-1 Brendan Haywood, 6-11 Dan Gadzuric, 6-11 Ken Johnson, all starter material. I think Houston is stacking picks next year to get one of the earlier picks in the draft to get one of the top 6 centers. Next year, Mihm or Prysbilla might even have gone in the second round with Dalembert, Hunter, Jones, Cook, Stone, Lang and Chenowith.

In next year's draft, there'll also probably be players like:
<OL>[*] Eddie Griffin: 6-9 PF ... he's being compared to Tim Duncan
[*] Gerald Wallace: 6-7 SF ... Highly-respected talent evaluator Brick Oettinger of Prep Stars Recruiter's Handbook said that Wallace 'has at least as much potential as any high school small forward we've ever seen, and that covers a span of 40 years.' He is being compared to Dominique Wilkens.
[*] Troy Murphy 6-9 PF ... some are comparing him to Keith Van Horn, but more competitive and a better shooter.
[*] DaJuan Wagner 6-2 G ... Allen Iverson goes to see him play, and is impressed.
[*] Jason Williams 6-2 PG ... far better than any guard in this draft.
[*] Kwame Brown 6-11 C ... a guard in a center's body, some saying "the next Kevin Garnett."
[*] Terence Morris 6-9 SF ... would have gone before Miller in this draft, but won't go until middle of the first round next year.

So, if we had just traded our #9 for any 1st round pick in next year's draft, we would have made a good deal. If Milwaukee picks #15 again next year, we could probably get Terrence Morris, which would be like getting #3 in this year's draft.
[/list=a]
Not only did we get a far better pick in next year's draft by trading the pick, which would have been enough, but we got Collier.

Yes, I would have rather had Martin, Swift, Miles, Miller or Johnson. But after that, he was the best guy left on the board to fit our team. Earlier, <a href="http://bbs.clutchcity.net/ubb/Forum3/HTML/006526.html">as quoted by Rocketsfan34</a>, Rudy said:

Spacing the floor and outside shooting are always consistent with me as things you can't have too much of. I think when we wound up putting guys at the power forward position that could shoot the three-pointer, it opened everything up for Steve and Cuttino. I think that is still going to be a factor. Somewhere down the line we might end up with a center that can shoot the ball from the outside and then get a power forward that goes inside. But our strength right now with the way Shandon plays, the way our guards play, is we have got to have some spacing. That doesn't mean we will never get a post-up player, but I don't think we could have a bunch of those types of guys with the way we are playing now.
Click to expand...

... That is Collier. It's who Rudy wanted to go with our guard attack. He can play both backup center and PF. He's a valuable building block for our team.

It is also possible that Collier is a pick to be utilized in a trade with Indiana for Croshere. That would make it a very good pick. Indiana could have actually instructed us to make this pick, although I actually believe Rudy wants him for OUR team, especially since he had him come back for a second private workout, in which he pleasantly surprised them on various levels. This was not an uneducated choice.

It was also imperative not to alienate Mobely. If we lose Mobely, it would be like losing the #5 pick in this draft. This would have been subtraction by addition. We were better off making picks that would not threaten Mobely and get picks next year after we have Mobely signed.

This was a very odd draft this year. After the first 6 picks, almost anyone could have gone interchangeably for the next 40. I myself was a victim of frustration when I watched Carrawell drop, and then we didn't take him when we could. But that is because we look at mock drafts and see guys go at a different spot, and we assume that meant one was better than another. This year, that wasn't the case. The good thing is that this draft is deep with these role players who will make teams. But there are only a few starters. We got 2 roles players.

The next player we needed was a backup SF, who is in the same mold that Rudy described. Rudy was convinced that Langhi was the best SF shooter in the second round. He did win the SEC player of the year award which he shared with Swift, and was a finalist for the Wooden Award as the top college player in the nation. He's who Rudy wants for this team to open up the lanes for the guards. Next year, even though the draft is deep with great players, it won't be so deep as this year in role players, so that 2nd round pick next year won't hurt so much, and if I understood right, it won't have to be our pick, so we can give them a garbage pick.

Houston will probably pick up another starter using Drew, possibly Williams, maybe KT, maybe Cato, and the 4.5m exception. We might even be able to pick up two.

Even though I hear everyone yelling this was horrible drafting and trading, it just wasn't, and next year, when we pick a great center to help take Francis' Rockets farther into the playoffs, we'll all think he was a genius for what he did today.

We'll see that he somehow parlayed that #9 pick into a good role player and a star player in next year's draft, without losing Mobely. We'll be bursting with pride when we trade up and get a superstar, or end up with 2 or 3 great players. We'll be glad he traded up in the second round this year to get us a solid backup SF, who will probably be with the team for years.

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the more I know, the more I know I don't know...

[This message has been edited by Sherlock (edited June 29, 2000).]

WiNK · Jun 29, 2000

Sherlock,

I couldnt have said it better myself!!

I tried earlier in another thread but it didnt come out quite so good!

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hoopjunkie · Jun 29, 2000

Excellent post, I agree.

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- hoopjunkie

"when you come in da HOOD... things change."

Dennis2112 · Jun 29, 2000

Thanks Sherlock..

The great detective find the clues to make the puzzle fit.

It's elementary, Dr. Watson.

I must admit that I was a bit stunned by what transpired but Rudy and CD know more about talent and basketball than I would ever know. I trust them to do the right things.

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Houston Rockets Forever!!
In Rudy We Trust

[This message has been edited by Dennis2112 (edited June 29, 2000).]

bigboymumu · Jun 29, 2000

That is idiotic. You say that Mihm and Pryz would have been drafted in the second round next year. If that is the case then Collier would not be drafted. I believe the staff had him as their last alternative and were forced to pick him. The mistake that we made was not get enough for our 9th pick.

As it stands right now. We traded our lottery pick for Collier and probably the 20th pick of next year.

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Fuggetabout it

Dream34 · Jun 29, 2000

Sherlock,
I will admit I was pissed last night. Not only could I not get into the mother of all chats but to top it off I found out we got Jason Collier and this other guy I have never heard of.

I guess a good night's sleep helped calm me down. I agree with your comments. As much as we like to get the super stud every year, it does not always work that way. As part of the rebuilding we have to have good role players. That is exactly what we got last night. The Rockets management never forgot the big picture (i.e next years draft and off-season are going to be huge).

So here is to hoping these role players work out. Thanks again for putting an objective view to last nights draft.

Just curious. If these two make the roster than who is likely to be gone or be cut???

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Vice President of the Austin Croshere fan club.

[This message has been edited by Dream34 (edited June 29, 2000).]

Puff · Jun 29, 2000

I usually am with the notion "In Rudy we trust" I am not sure on this one. Hopefully the verdict will be out on this one in August, but.... I had all these expectations for this draft and it did not go as planned. There is still a chance for something, but who knows, but I guess I will continue to remind myself, "In Rudy we trust"

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A Chuck paraphrase:

It was surreal! And I don't even know what that means!

Charles after Eddie hit THE SHOT

oeilpere · Jun 29, 2000

Thanks Sir Arthur Conan Sherlock for bringing me back to a spot of some sanity. Excellent perspective on a hellish night.

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Title99 · Jun 29, 2000

I totally agree!!!! Well said

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Rocketsauce · Jun 29, 2000

I too was pissed last night but have since calmed down. I guess all of the trade speculation for the #3 or 4 pick got me a little excited. Now we will have to wait a few days until the FA signing period to see what develops. I know we have something left up our sleeve. It just doesn't seem likely that we would enter the season with Drew and the 4.5 exception. I don't know much about Collier but if he ends up with the team then I'm sure, like most of Rudy's picks, that he will prove to be the steal of the draft.

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"Stranger things have happened, but none stranger than this" - Commentator after a parachutist landed in the ring of a Holyfield fight

JuanValdez · Jun 29, 2000

We should have tanked. In the draft, I'm always saying we should trust Rudy here, he knows what he's doing. It was hard this time. I think he probably did the best with a bad situation -- which this certainly was after 6 picks. I think I like Clutch's assessment best: a below average draft. But those were the cards we were dealt. Now, if we had tanked down to 6th seed, it'd been different.

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http://www.gaffordstudios.cjb.net/

No Worries · Jun 29, 2000

Originally posted by MManal:

As far as the pick the Rockets acquired from the Bucks. That was really an excellent move. If the pick is 13, 14 or so in the 2001 draft, that is the EQUIVALENT of a 9th overall in 2000. The 2001 draft is so chock full its not even funny. So essentially, it could work out that the Rockets got Jason Collier, (a solid 15-8 type role player) for almost nothing. Just give this time and let it play out folks. The Rockets made the best of a bad situation.

Click to expand...

I agree that the Rocks have made the best of a bad situation. I thought for sure there would better players available at #9. The teams ahead of us did not take a chance on Pryz or Alexander (a steal at 13), which really surprised me.

I am disappointment with the Rockets' luck of having a top pick in a very weak draft. Collier is not even a marginal starter in this league, which is depressing. An average draft's #15 would a second tier start, but not in this draft.

The Buck's next year's first pick should be in the 15 - 20 range. An average draft should give the Rockets a second/third tier starter. The bottom line would be that the Rocks traded a #9 pick for a second tier starter and a quality bench player (in Collier we hope).

Some have said that next year draft will be really deep. Like this year, we will not know for sure until all of the underclassmen and HSers have declared. We will see.

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Sherlock · Jun 29, 2000

bigboymumu

If it turns out that the Milwaukee pick is #20, then I'd rather have that pick in next year's draft, than the #9 in this year's draft, with the six players we wanted already taken.

In addition, we got Collier, a good backup player to add depth at the 4/5, which was all we were going to get after pick #6.

I believe we are going to package 2 or 3 of our picks next year to get a pick at the top of the draft to either take Baby Shaq (Eddie Curry) or Tyson Chandler. If Cato turns into a monster with good work habits, then we'd take Wallace as a superstar SF.

With Dream gone, we'll also add a prime FA to the team, and I assume we'll do a trade this offseason using our exception, Drew, possibly Collier, and maybe Williams.

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the more I know, the more I know I don't know...

JayZ750 · Jun 30, 2000

Right on! Everything said so far sounds pretty good. I think RUdy and Carrol know exactly what theyre doing. They knew even before the draft that they were probably going to trade down. Why? Well, no matter who Chicago picked (Fizer???), Rudy and Carol probably saw the Mike Miller to Orlando thing, as he is from Florida, is very talented, and can score. That being said, the Hawks had to take Johnson--who were they gonna take, a center?- leaving the Rockets with no choice. Perhaps the Rockets wanted to trade down to get Thomas, but all along it was also pretty apparent they would be getting Milwaukees pick in a trade.

Of course, there has been a lot of spin-doctoring going on here. Nonetheless, everything said about Collie, including outside the organization, has been good. While there are a lot of stunned poeple, everyone pretty much agrees that Collier is a pretty athletic big man (I heard much more athletic than Doleac is) and has a great shot. He does fit. It is my opinion that Pryzbilla wont go very far. Why? I think he was the slowest big white guys taken. He just doesnt seem very athletic to me. The exact same problem Bryant Reeves has. Sure, some people would have prefered Moiso. However, I think the difference is minimal whne considering the extra pick the Rockets got and the fact that Moiso doesnt fit as well. Athletically, he had an advantage. But physically, he was just stick and bones from tapes Ive seen and form TNT last night. The Rockets already have Kelvin Cato. What do they need Moiso for, when he is far worse defensively and not as experienced or as bulky. Collier is athletic, but he has size. He fits well.

Hey, you cant blame Rudy and Carroll Dawson for this years crop of players being sub-par. Its not their fault the Rockets decided to stink it up for the first time in years going into arguably the weakest draft in years. Giveem a break.

If you dont like those opinons than hey....maybe Rudy was drunk!

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When I die I want to go peacefully like my grandfather. Not screaming like the passengers in the back seat!

MManal · Jun 30, 2000

Excellent post JayZ. I am trying to tell anyone who will listen that Jason Collier is going to be a solid player in this league and a really good fit with this team. I have been very high on Jerome Moiso for a while as many of you know and that is who I wanted the Rockets to get with DerMarr gone. However, I trust their personnel evaluations and understand their move. Once they picked Pryzbilla, I was very concerened but relieved when they dealt him. I share your opinion on Pryz, he has Bryant Reeves/Greg Ostertag written all over him.

Footwork and lateral movement is something that is essential to big man success in the NBA. Jason Collier and Chris Mihm have it, Joel Pryzbilla does not. I am just not sold on Pryz's NBA potential.

As far as the pick the Rockets acquired from the Bucks. That was really an excellent move. If the pick is 13, 14 or so in the 2001 draft, that is the EQUIVALENT of a 9th overall in 2000. The 2001 draft is so chock full its not even funny. So essentially, it could work out that the Rockets got Jason Collier, (a solid 15-8 type role player) for almost nothing. Just give this time and let it play out folks. The Rockets made the best of a bad situation.

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Hottoddie · Jun 30, 2000

Sherlock,

Do you think that the Rockets will make a trade for Croshere with Kenny Thomas + others, or the exception? If Collier is as effective as we hope he will be, then would we still need KT?

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Sherlock · Jun 30, 2000

Hottoddie:

I'm the wrong guy to be asking this question. Perhaps oeilpere and others with sources could give a more educated opionion on this.

But in my opinion, if there is a trade in the works for Croshere, perhaps Indiana instructed us to get Collier. If they didn't, then Collier would be a good backup to Croshere, just as KT would be, and if Indiana wanted him, it would make sense to send him in the trade. Some have discussed moving Croshere to SF, but I think he belongs at PF. We are stockpiling picks for next year's deep draft, and I'm hoping we have a chance to take one of the top centers, and maybe even get a SF, such as Wallace or Morris.

This is conjecture once again, but I have assumed Drew would be part of that package, but he may be slated to go in an LAC trade for Kandi or one of the new rookies, such as Maggette.

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the more I know, the more I know I don't know...

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The Rockets made some excellent moves. These were not mistakes!

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