Letting The Airs Out...MJ, VC, & Misconceptions...

Fame, as we all know second-hand, can be a very fickle thing. One day they love you, the next they long to see you fail. But I have rarely seen this principle demonstrated more drastically than in the case of Vince Carter. Despite being very early into an already remarkable career, Air Canada has seen both sides of the fame game, having been lauded as the only true successor to You-Know-Who, and then suffering through an injury-plagued year which cost him many minutes, but even more of his reputation. On the other hand, Michael Jordan basks in the warmth of the media-fed fire of hero worship, described as the ultimate winner, and seemingly beyond reproach.

Whether or not Jordan has earned this status is the subject of another debate, and one I feel strongly about, but let us assume, for the sake of argument, that Jordan's rep is well earned, and use his career as a comparative standard when evaluating Vince Carter, and the antipathy many feel towards him at this time...

When people use knee jerk reactions to formulate opinions, they are subject to gross miscalculations, and often engage in revisionist history to defend their stance. This is true with regards to both Jordan and Carter, in reverse proportion. When people compare the two, they often do Carter the disservice of comparing an athlete in his 4th year, one of which was cut short by a season-ending injury, to Michael Jordan's entire career. Additionally, they do this while turning a blind eye to the facts of Jordan's early career, instead buying into the idea that what was true of him in his prime must have always been so, and this is false...Let's review these two...

IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON TEAM

Michael Jordan is justifiably praised for single-handedly turning the Chicago Bulls from a pretty awful team into a playoff team. The team he came to was in fact, pretty bad, having won only 27 of 82 games the previous season for a winning % of .329. In his first year they showed remarkable improvement, winning 38 games, winning .463 of their games, for a winning % improvement of .134. Jordan was the runaway winner of the Rookie of the Year.

Vince Carter came to a team in absolute turmoil, fresh of the defection of it's architect, Isiah Thomas, the departure upon demand of it's franchise player, Damon Stoudamire, and the trade of it's only other marquee name, Marcus Camby. The year before Carter's joining them, the Raptors had absolutely stunk, winning only 16 of 82 games, for a winning % of .195. The very next year, Carter's rookie campaign, Toronto improved to a winning % of .460, an improvement of a remarkable .265. Carter was the runaway winner of the Rookie of the Year.

Clearly both had a positive impact on their team, but also clearly Carter's team improved significantly more than Jordan's in their respective rookie campaigns.



SCORING BY THE NUMBERS

In Michael Jordan's 1st 4 years he averaged 28.2, 22.7, 37.1, and 35.0 points per game per season, with the second being notable for it being limited to only 18 games due to injury. In Carter's 1st 4 years he averaged 18.3, 25.7, 27.6, and 24.7 ppg each. On the surface it would seem that Jordan clearly was a better scorer than Carter, averaging almost 7 more points per game ( 31.8 vs. 25.0). However, this perception doesn't really hold up upon further review. Allow me to explain...

In their 1st 4 years, due to injury and labour dispute, Carter and Jordan played roughly the same number of games, with Jordan playing a total of 264 games, and Carter 267. What is remarkable is that, despite the fact that Carter played 3 more games during this period, Jordan took an astounding 825 more shots! Their totals were 6, 250 fga's for Jordan and 5,425 fga's for Carter. When you account for the fact that they each averaged roughly 66 games/year, that means that Jordan averaged above 3 shots per game more than Carter.

And this only accounts for fga's unaffected by fouls...During the same 4 year span the now infamous Jordan Rules helped lead Jordan to the free throw stripe 2, 703 times, as opposed to only 1, 628 times for Carter. Pro-rated, this means that Jordan averaged in excess of 4 more ft's a game than Carter did.

Given that Jordan shot ft's at roughly 85% during his 1st 4 years, that accounts for about 2, 297 points. During that 4 year span he compiled 8, 630 pts in total, meaning that he accumulated 6, 333 points on field goals alone. Considering the fact that he took 6, 250 fgs in that stretch, Michael Jordan scored 1.0131 points for every fg he took.In other words, he basically scores 1pt for every fga.( Although a little less, Carter too averages about 1pt/fga).

Thefore, based on the fact that Jordan took more than 3 shots and 4 free throws more than Carter every game, pro-rated over their likelihood of success, Jordan SHOULD have scored 7 more points/game based on the amount of shots he took. In other words, given either of their rates of sucess at fgs and fts, had Carter taken the same number of shots and fts as Jordan he would have scored almost exactly the same as Jordan did.

Now this isn't conclusive, as there is something to be said for being able to get to the ft line, and it can be argued that Carter might not have sustained the same %s had he taken more shots. Conversely, it can also be argued that Jordan's astronomical free throw numbers were a reflection of the Jordan Rules, which made guarding him a much more difficult task, and that defenders on Carter would be a lot more aggressive than they ever would against the ref-protected MJ. It can also be argued that great player's %'s actually go up the more shots they take, as Jordan himself maintains, due to practice and confidence increases.

Either way, a closer look at the numbers reveals that the disparity, if their is one, is minimal. And it must also be noted that Jordan's 1st 4 years were during a time of very high league-wide scoring, with Showtime, the run- and- gun Nuggets,etc. while Carter's 1st 4 years were during a time when scoring was so low that rule changes have been adopted to increase scoring.


TOUGHNESS & DURABILITY

In his 1st 4 seasons Michael Jordan missed 64 games due to injuries, whereas Vince Carter missed 29. Both had injuries that required surgery, the difference being that Jordan was shut down as soon as he was hurt, whereas Carter tried in vain to play through the bad knee, and played very poorly, before ending his season and going under the knife. Both began their careers as primarily driver/dunkers, but Jordan gradually developed his mid-to-outside shot to the point that it became his primary asset, and he rarely goes to the hoop anymore. Carter's outside shooting progressed much more rapidly than Jordan's, and he would go through stretches where he seemed to rely on it too much. That being said, it must also be noted that;

A) His seeming affection for the outside might very well be the result of his desire to develop his all-around offense quickly, and overcome his early label as merely a high-flyer.

B) There is no comparison between the two with regards to the protection they received from the refs, and getting pounded night after night when driving to the hole seems a lot more appealing when you get the calls.


DEFENSE


While it could and probably should be argued that the Jordan Rules applied as much to his defense as his offense, as he routinely played very aggressive, hands-on defense yet was rarely in foul trouble, their can be little doubt that Jordan exhibited much more consistent effort on the defensive end than Carter has thus far. Their physical abilites in this field are similar, making Carter's occassional laissez-faire attitude all the more frustrating. He has shown marked improvement (when healthy) each and every year, it must be noted.


WINNING

This is the area of the greatest misconception when it comes to Carter and Jordan. Many fans, especially those who didn't witness Jordan's early years in person have taken his later winning ways and applied them post-facto to his entire career. They have forgotten that Jordan's early reputation was much worse than Carter's is now...he was seen as a very talented ball-hog who would never win because he was only interested in his own numbers...much like Iverson has often been described. In fact, he was seen by his fellow players as such a selfish player that they infamously tried to shut him out of an All-Star game by never passing him the ball. In his first playoffs Jordan's Bulls lost in 4 in the 1st round, then were swept in the 1st round in the next 2 years before reaching the 2nd round in his 4th year to lose in 5.

Compare this with Carter whose team didn't make the playoffs his 1st year (despite having virtually the same winning % as Jordan's rookie year Bulls), was swept in the 1st round his second year, and came within one missed shot of making it to the Eastern Conference Finals in his 3rd. At the time of his injury during his 4th year the Raptors were within 3 games of 1st place in the Eastern Conference.

If you look at the facts about each of their 1st 4 seasons, there is no comparison. Despite not making the playoffs in one year and missing another due to injury, Carter actually won one more playoff game than Jordan did in 4 playoff rounds. Which one would, were they playing at the same time, would deserve the reputation as a can't win when it counts player?

So the next time you hear someone claim that, based on one injury plagued second half of a year, when he struggled trying to ill-advisedly play while hobbled, Vince Carter has shown that he is not the Next One, remember that Jordan didn't even reach the ECF's until his 5th season, and didn't win the big one until his 7th, and he had a little more help to do that (Pippen, Grant, etc.) than Carter has now...Give the same time that Jordan had and we'll see..I doubt if he'll win 6 rings, but he might win a few before he's done,especially if he gets a supporting cast and great coach.

 

The Kobe/Vince thing is an entrirely different argument, but allow me to say this...

1) Vince has made a greater % of his game winning shots than Kobe has, and, in fact, one of his nicknames in Toronto has been 4th Quarter Carter.

2) Being Kobe, and having the attention Shaq gets, thereby assuring you of single coverage, is nothing like being by far the best player on your team, and facing constant double coverage, especially in crunch time.

3) The problem with Carter ISN'T ability..he often plays fantastic defense, smothering his opponent...it's that he only does this in spurts, while guys like Jordan and Kobe do it consistently...

 

1) I agree about the Conferences, but Carter's team still improved TWICE AS MUCH as Jordan's in their repsective 1st years.

2) It got worse, I agree, but the incredible number of ft's Jordan took early on demonstrate that they were already well underway...

 

I did reply...Within the quote..My replies have *** around them.

 

A)'No, I am not too-good.

B) I am JAG, heyp, don't you remember me?

C) This banning thing is getting ridiculous...