We really have to make a decision on the value of these picks before the draft starts. Obviously any team holding another teams first rounder(s) has to constantly be evaluating the value of the pick, but for us its especially important to be doing it right now. Those picks have a good value right now, but could break hard either way in the next 2 months. I don't think I have ever seen a team stake so much on one path (as NY has done), and that has lead to the next two months which will make or break their future. If we think NY is going to succeed in getting two top tier players this summer than obviously it may be best to trade the picks now. But think of the value of those if NY fails to do anything other than grab an Amare, Boozer or Rudy Gay by themselves. What do you guys think, deal one or both of the picks because we think the value is gonna tank, or keep them because of what they will be.....?
Remember we dont have 2 picks, we have one in 2012 and the option to switch in 2011. I think you need to trade the 2012 pick while it has some value because even if NY doesnt land 2 superstars it will land something signficant that should improve them. They'll likely still suck next year, but then that summer they may make more improvements, so by 2012 they may be decent. I dont remember what happens with the 2011 situation. I dont believe we can trade our pick and give that team the option to swap with NY. Maybe we lose that option if we trade the pick. It probably makes more sense to just leave that as is. I think it's likely we'll be better than NY and worst case scenario i'd say we'd be about the same.
If I recall the trade correctly, we have the chance to swap the 2011 pick with them if they don't make it into the top 5 pick and we get the 2012 pick if it is not a top 1 pick.
"If" the Knicks mess up this up coming off-season.... things could become very interesting with the 2011 Swap picks(top 1 protected) If the Knicks mess up, we could be looking at this guy in next years draft... Spoiler <object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/quxsxSe1YTo&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/quxsxSe1YTo&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object> --RB
Could be HUGE... Lebron= Cleveland/New York Wade= Miami/New York Bosh= Miami/New York Amare= Pheonix/Miami/New York Dirk= Dallas/Pheonix Boozer= Utah/Miami/New York Johnson=Hawks/New York If I was a gambling man, I would gamble that New York gets screwed, and ends up with Johnson and MAYBE Boozer at best... I see Bosh and Wade hooking up in Miami... Lebron staying in Cleveland. Maybe a Dirk/Nash/Amare team in Pheonix though unlikely... Utah will do what they can to retain Boozer. Joe is a ?...
I think NY's draft picks are close to as valuable as they could be. If they land some big name free agents, the picks will be less valuable. If they don't land anyone...they still suk..and the draft picks stay relatively close in value to where they are. Deal them sooner than later......of plan on keeping them.
To me they only have value in what we can get in this years draft or free agent potential sign and trades. Future picks of possible players we have to waite to get better for dont do Scola, Brooks, Yao, or anyone else currently any good for winning. They simply will grow old waitng for those guys to be drafted and ready to contribute. So in reality its more waiting ahead if you want to keep them.
I don't think NY is going to be great by any means, but they are a few pieces from solid mediocrity. They do have a few players, and those that they have like David Lee don't take games off. I think anything below 8 will be extremely lucky. That being said, if we can package those picks to get a player who can contribute burn them. That's great thing, they are pure insurance. If we fail in the free agent market or can't land Cousins.. keep them to protect the future.
NY's recent history of questionable hires and roster moves makes it difficult for them to all of a sudden be a decent team in the next couple of years. The only way that changes is if they land a big-named free agent, they make smarter front office moves and/or their play on the court gets better. Funny thing is, their history, play on court and roster moves are what could keep them from landing the big-name free agent that they desire in the first place. See LA Clippers.
He's a free agent also, and I would bet against him resigning in NY because they only gave him a 1 year deal last summer.
Of course the pick swap is capable of being traded. The Rockets can simply trade to Team X "the better of the New York Knicks' 2011 pick (top 1 protected) or the Houston Rockets' 2011 pick". I wouldn't be surprised, though, if the Rockets added their own level of protection to that choice of picks. For instance, if the Rockets turn out to suck next year (perish the thought!) and end up with the #1 pick, Morey may not want to have given that pick away. Perhaps it will be a top-5 protected pick (still the better of the Knicks' or the Rockets' pick). The protection could then burn off over the next few years. The possibilities are endless. Good stuff.
I hope Morey can flip those in this year's draft, I think the Knicks are going to get two very good players this offseason. Probably not the top 2...but they could end up with Boozer and Johnson....and be dramatically better, thus lowering the value of those picks. DD
I'm pretty sure that most NBA GMs are smart enough to factor in that the Knicks will add SOMEBODY with skills (likely at least two of those guys) this summer. It's not like some GMs think they're for sure going to be top 5 picks and will automatically change their minds as soon as the Knicks sign, say, Rudy Gay. Those Knicks' picks are likely viewed right now as mid- to late lottery picks, possibly mid-first rounders. Now, if the Knicks somehow don't get ANYONE and David Lee bolts for the Nets, THEN those picks skyrocket in value. At least the 2011 pick swap does. That said, I agree with you, DD, that the Rockets would be well-advised to trade at least one of those picks on draft night or early in free agency.
If the Knicks picks can get us someone (in a package) that makes us an instant contender, or get us an impact rookie with all-star likelihood (not potential), then trade it. Anything less, keep it. It's almost impossible to trade into the top 5 draft picks without either giving up a near all-star talent or taking back significant garbage contracts in the NBA. All-NBA potential is just so rarely traded or allowed to sign as a free agent with another team. As a trade chip, the Knicks 2011 pick (swap) is probably not great. A non-playoff team may have a better draft position than the Knicks so are unlikely to trade for it as they can potentially get nothing (ie no swap), but a playoff team is unlikely to give us a good enough player to warrant us trading a potential lottery pick away (as they would be focused on winning), and they are unlikely to have a better draft pick potential than a Knicks pick. As for 2012, it is too far away to bet on the Knicks still sucking by then (easy for the fans to bet on, but not for the GMs to stick their necks out and bet).
Johnson and Boozer would be horrible for them. Just good enough to avoid the lottery but not good enough to win a championship. .
