What will Daryl Morey's Lottery Draft Strategy be?

Weren't the Rockets interested in Anthony Randolph? I would trade the Rockets 1st rounder for Randolph. I don't know if the Warriors would, but when he was healthy he was in Don Nelson's dog house.

 

^ Depending on who is available come pick time - I'd give GS our 1st and David Andersen for Anthony Randolph.

 

I hate drafting bigs with upside. If the 4/5 isn't already playing well in college, well, I know it takes time to develop, but....

See also, Brown, Kwame; Swift, Stromile.

However, Udoh, despite being a hellaciously old 22-almost-23 ( ) can step in and contribute right away.

 

Whiteside is hard to predict, I've seen everything from David Robinson to Michael Olowakandi. 7,0 - 235 is a still a big body for an NBA center, I do not see why people are knocking that, especially when you have players more suited for power forward or 6,9 players at center

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/hassan-whiteside
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Hassan-Whiteside-5660/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Larry-Sanders-5148/


If we get lucky and draft Cousins or Monroe, or even have to settle for Whiteside or Sanders. I think it will solve alot of our undersized problems or even make us a better matchup against the big teams in the league.

Look we'll have most of the following:

Yao, Scola, Hayes, Jefferies, Andersen, and Hill (no Armstrong), adding potential draft choice (Cousins, Monroe, Favors Aldrich, Udoh, Whiteside, or Sanders).

The draft pick does not have to be an all-star, but a player who can be adequate, which I think most of these guys could be.

Cousins or Favors would be fine, but very unlikely.

 

Cousins is a beast, but after watching a few Kentucky games, I think he will struggle with footwork, tech and regular fouls at first and I think he may take a year or two to really have a huge impact.

 

That in no way makes your point. Aaron Brooks has come from a 3rd string PG his first year to a 20 pt scoring starting point guard. Added to the fact that they weren't even taken anywhere NEAR the lottery, they were barely expected to contribute to a team, much less be crucial starters for them. Those two examples prove that players can greatly improve their game, despite being older than others in their class. I don't really see any logic in your bashing of a prospect for being too old (22?!), claiming that inhibits him from ever being an all-star. Frankly, it just doesn't make any sense. And add Carlos Boozer's name to my list, who came out as a Jr. and developed into an all-star.

Please, by all means, explain at what age kids should no longer be considered potential all-star types. Apparently a 22 year old Jr. (Ekpe Udoh)is too old to ever be an all-star in your opinion. Nevermind he's only one year older than Evan Turner -- because Evan Turner is a "young" prospect who has all-star potential. Let's not forget Duncan was an "old" prospect, staying all four years.

What about the time when Atlanta drafted young Freshman Marvin Williams, passing on the grizzled vets of Juniors Deron Williams/Raymond Felton or Sophomore Chris Paul. There's two sides to the issue on this, and you can't just point to one example and say "see, I'm right!"

 

"Whiteside is hard to predict, I've seen everything from David Robinson to Michael Olowakandi. 7,0 - 235 is a still a big body for an NBA center, I do not see why people are knocking that, especially when you have players more suited for power forward or 6,9 players at center"

I don't want anything to do with a low bball IQ player like Whiteside. I've Rockets fans have had more than their fair share of morons to watch with Francis and Swift. If you can't figure out where to be in a half court set, I want nothing to do with you. Whiteside had 9 assists for the SEASON? No thanks

 

...having said all that, discussing players like Whiteside is a waste of time, as Morey isn't dumb enough to draft a player lacking a basketball brain.

 

I used to believe that.

Then, he drafted Dorsey.

Here's the latest on Dorsey.

http://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/11286588873

http://www.ridiculousupside.com/2010/3/30/1396493/joey-dorsey-cut-by-sacramento

 

Morey is a statistical wizard (And I don't mean JCDenton now) who isn't bound by rules that don't make sense.

He probably doesn't think like fans, who mostly think like this:

"He is big and athletic, sure we must pick him because he has POTENTIAL"
"We can't pick players from Duke, they don't become all-stars"
"He is dumb, let's not take him."
"This guy is awesome, he averaged xxx blocks, points, whatever"
"This dud has a 10% chance of becoming a star. When he does, I'm gonna call everybody who didn't pick him an idiot. When he doesn't, I'm going to blame the coaching staff/I'm gonna pretend that I never even liked the guy anyway"

Morey probably sees value in ranges:

Joey Dorsey's questionable iq probably makes him bad value at lottery.
Second round, not so much.
Or Morey probably doesn't take undersized power forwards if the has a top-5 pick, but historically pretty productive guys tend to drop to later picks where they are good value, because morons didn't see enough potential in them.

 

Daryl Morey doing scouting in Belgrade
Tue Mar 30,2010 5:53 PM ET By John Krolik
Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey is currently doing some scouting overseas, and he's tweeting about it. Morey has been giving travel updates for about a week, and there's a lot of interesting stuff in there. Today, Morey went to Belgrade to watch Partizan take on Maccabi Tel Aviv in the third game of a best-of-five series. It's a fair bet Morey was paying special attention to Jan Vesely, a versatile Partizan forward who is currently projected to be a late-lottery pick.


Partizan ended up winning the game 81-73, with Vesely scoring 14 points in 24 minutes of play for the winning side. Since GMs in the past would often attempt to shroud their scouting trips in mystery, it's interesting to see Morey self-publishing pictures and which games he's watching on his scouting trip. I don't know what impact, if any, this type of thing will have on draft day. All I can say is that as a basketball fan it's cool to get a peek behind the curtain and see the (literally) smoke-filled arenas across the globe scouts and general managers are going to to try and find the next Manu Ginobili or Dirk Nowitzki

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/daryl-morey-doing-scouting-in-belgrade.php

 

Some more:
"He's white. He doesn't have the athleticism to compete at the next level."
"He's a four year senior. That means he sucked too much to go to the NBA earlier, and obviously he has no chance now."
"He's European. He could be the next Dirk or Manu!"
"He's European. He's just a soft stiff who will only take outside jump shots and get ramrodded on defense."

Oops with that last one...but hey at least David Andersen was not a draft pick!

 

Heres a good read on Hassan Whiteside - Fr. PF/C, Marshall
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/pr ... erId=46133

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (10 games):
16.8pts, 9.9rebs, 0.0asts, 0.6stls, 5.4blks (1st out of 45 prospects), 3.5PFs, 2.3TOs
44.6 FG%, 33.3 3pt% (1/3), 68.1 FT%, .42 FTA/FGA

Image

Standing 6’11 and weighing somewhere around 230 pounds with a mammoth wingspan, Whiteside is tailor-made for playing weakside defense and altering shots around the rim. He went in and smashed the old C-USA single-season blocks record of 143 blocks with 173 blocks of his own. Not only that, but he’s set to become the first freshman to lead the nation in blocks since Travis Williams in 1998-99, an extremely impressive feat.

As a player who will likely be asked to play Center for the majority of his minutes at the next level, Whiteside looks fluid when running the floor and has excellent lateral foot speed. He is a superb athlete for his size, even when taking into account that he’s not an explosive leaper. However, there is a flaw in his physical makeup: he is very weak. He is severely lacking lower body strength, and it is one of the main causes of his problems on both sides of the floor. While he has the frame to add weight, and was rumored to have gained 15-25 pounds last summer, I am skeptical that he will ever reach that 250-260 mark. Does he have to? Not really, but he’ll have to learn how to play against bigger Centers as a similar built player, Marcus Camby, did.

Defensively, he’s a game changer in the lane when it comes to guards or wings penetrating. Because of his lateral quickness, he can quickly get into position and use his pterodactyl-arms to block or alter many of the shot attempts in the lane. It’s scary how effective he is considering his timing isn’t at an elite level. The lateral quickness also allows him to be an effective pick and roll defender. He can easily help hedge screens and make it a seamless switch. He’s truly an elite prospect when it comes to help defense.

When it comes to man defense, it’s a different story. He simply gets overpowered in the post because of his lack of lower body strength and not knowing how to guard punishing post players. On occasion, he can make up for that due to his insane wingspan and quick feet, allowing him to get an angle to block/alter the shot even though he surrendered position. However, more often he’ll get bullied and looks like a boy guarding a man when players go straight at him. This sometimes causes him to pick up cheap fouls, which could be a concern when he goes up against large post players regularly.

On the boards, Whiteside also needs work, as his current style isn’t going to translate favorably to the NBA level against the bigger, stronger, more athletic competition. Right now he gets most of the boards he collects purely off length and athleticism… there is very little fundamental influence. It’s rare where I see him block out as Ed Davis or Derrick Favors do - two guys who could easily do the same thing and rely on athleticism to grab the boards in college games, but don’t because it’s a bad habit. However, the fact that he does hustle for rebounds on occasion is a good sign and makes me think he’s not a lost cause ala Ryan Hollins.

On offense, it’s a mixed bag. When it comes to scoring, he loves taking jumpers, and he’s not afraid to take them 16-20 feet out. He possesses a very smooth jumper for a guy that big, and it’s nearly unblockable even though it’s kind of a slow release. However, the downside is that he settles for jumpers way too often and frequently takes them early in the shot clock. He uses his jumper to set up the occasional drive where he shows off an adequate handle, and because he is usually going to be more athletic than his counterpart, this is an effective part of his game. This could really make him a dangerous pick-and-roll player.

In the post, as he’s basically incapable of being a physical player, so he snakes around players and has to use his adequate handle and length to put up shots which may easily be blocked at the NBA level. This adversely affects his efficiency, as he is not drawing contact and getting to the line as often as he needs to. Often he’ll be seen throwing up awkward flips and really just displaying how raw he is as a post player - though he shows shockingly good touch around the rim. However, because of his athleticism and length, he is able to finish with authority around the rim when he’s able to get position.

To sum up his offensive skills, there are times where he looks brilliant and unstoppable because of his physical gifts and surprising jumper. However, there are times where he basically looks to have zero BBIQ. This can be seen in his shot selection, where he frequently takes shots early in the shot clock; in his post game, where he shows immature post moves and forces up tough, low % shots; in the way he spaces the floor, where he commonly bunches up and allows one man to cover two or doesn’t get himself in good position to receive the ball. I think the most alarming thing, however, is how incapable he is to move the ball when he receives it. Zero assists in 10 quality opponent games is inexcusable. Nine assists in 851 minutes is despicable. When he attempts to pass, it’s usually off-target and/or too hard. He just doesn’t have the feel for a team game on the offensive side of the ball, and it’s very alarming when attempting to project him.

Overall, Whiteside is basically the epitome of a boom or bust player. He could be elite defensively and very useful offensively if he learns to hone his skills and add strength. Right now, however, he’s a pretty big negative on the offensive end when he is not very efficient (ranks last in Center PPP with a 0.88 and 0.42 FTA/FGA) and isn’t able to move the ball or correctly space the floor; while also susceptible to being posted up and abused defensively. I have him at a tentative 8th right now, but certain teams will be more willing to take a chance on this project hoping to strike gold and get a new-age Camby.
Check out my NBA Draft blog: http://casperkid23.blogspot.com/

 

If he ends up on Rockets, I don't see this. His best chance is for a team to try him as a PF as he can't handle centers right now and won't be able to for a while...if ever. Working with Yao would help a lot as he has backup.

 

Darryl Morey's strategy is to simply pick the best player available. That's awesome because he is not wasting our picks by just trying to fulfill a need. Instead he finds a way to make the player fit in. Also, he doesn't waste the pick on potential because he knows that things don't always pan out the way we think. Instead, he tends to go with the most sure thing. Ingenious!

 

okay, Morey drafted Dorsey in the 2ND round. He had nothing to lose. If you draft an immature/dumb player as a 1st round lottery pick your taking and risk because there is a guaranteed contract involved.

 

I think Jan Vesely will be a good draft!

 

He goes for the best value.