Where does the 3 team trade position ourselves towards resigning Lowry and Scola? Every new acquisition but Hill, Martin and JJ will be expiring.
You just have to think in terms of us (the Rockets) being over the cap. We can resign any player that we have bird rights to. With Scola we can beat any ones offer. Now with Lowry we have early bird rights or same name like that so we can't just give him whatever he wants. We can do like landry and give him a qualifying offer and then let the market name his price. So in summary we bring back Scola with his bird rights and try to re-sign Lowry with some or all of the MLE. We should also have our lle money this year (correct me if I am wrong) Also on a side note if Kthomas is not part of the deal we should pick up about a 5 mil trade exception. Might be useful later on down the ride. Plus Jefferies gives us another expiring for next year which gives us lots of flexibility.
Bringing Scola back will likely require dipping into the tax, but hopefully not too much. My hope is that Les is willing to do that for this team.
I'm not Bima or Herrera, so I'll probably get this wrong, but salaries on the books for 2010: Players Currently on the Team That Stay Yao = $17,686,100 Shane = $7,354,500 Trevor = $6,322,320 Andersen = $2,500,000 Brooks = $2,016,691 Taylor = $810,000 Budinger = $783,000 New Players that will Still be on the Books Martin = $11,100,005 Jordan Hill = $2,669,520 New Players with Player Option Jeffries = $6,883,400 (of course he will exercise) All other players are free agents - Kenny Thomas will not be resigned. Hilton Armstrong may or may not be resigned. Kyle Lowry - hopeful, but at what price. Luis Scola - hopeful, but at what price. Chuck Hayes could be on the team, with a team option, at a price of $2,301,250 So, your base salary already for next year is: $58,125,536 To that add about $1.8 million for a draft pick around 14, and it becomes: $59,925,536 Luxury tax level this year is $69.92 million, down about $1.23 million from last year. Let's just assume it goes down next year to $67.5 million (a little over $2 million drop). That leaves you $7.5 million to spend on (1) Scola, (2) Lowry, (3) Chuck Hayes option, (4) MLE, and (5) 2nd round or other draft picks potentially acquired. So basically not enough. You probably can't resign both Scola and Lowry. One would have to assume Scola is worth MLE type money ($5.5+ to start) and Lowry is worth around $3 million to start). That's $8.5. That said, maybe the luxury tax is a little higher, or they go over the luxury tax but make moves at the trade deadline to squeeze under again, or make some creative moves in the offseason. Still, unless I'm missing something, I think it is difficult and probably impossible to envision resigning Scola and Lowry AND signing an MLE type free agent without freeing up some cap room otherwise. That's my analysis. I'm sure it's wrong! Assuming some way is found and Scola and Lowry are resigned, but Chuck isn't picked up, the roster becomes: Brooks/Lowry Martin/Budinger/Taylor Ariza/Battier/Jeffries Scola/Hill Yao/Andersen Plus #14 Draft Pick You probably still need some more firepower off the bench, especially in the frontcourt. Fingers crossed that Hill is better than anticipated, Andersen continues to improve or Morey really is a draft genius and can get a real contributor with a mid teens pick.
Yeah, that's pretty much what I came up with. I can't believe Morey would have made that trade though thinking it would preclude us from re-signing Lowry, who he targeted last season. Scola is a given, and God we need a true backup center! I think it was just too good to pass up, so just take everything you can get if it's being given and figure out how to make it all fit later. I think you're right, there will be a lot of creative moves this off-season starting on draft day.
With the picks and Battier and Jeffries expiring we have lots of flexibility. If Hill is any good at all Hayes becomes expendable. If today proves anything is that Morey will always be able to pull something out. I still think we will find a way to get in on Bosh.
