No, you're right, it is very hard to read. Take the first example: Code: [SIZE=1]TEAM ACTUAL( THEORY OFF DEF IMPACT ZSCORE SIGMA) PLAYING TIME SIMPLE HOU 1.10 ( 1.27 -0.76 -2.04 -1.57 -0.07 2.37) 631.53 minutes 181 appearances 1 A -2.51 -33 $ Ariza Battier Brooks Hayes Scola 27.40 years 4238_HOU_2010[/SIZE] I'm not sure what is the difference between "Actual" and "Theory". Here's a guess: "ACTUAL" is observed point differential per 48 minutes for the lineup, after adjusting for theoretical opponent strength. "THEORY" is performance of the lineup determined by a regression on results of all observed matchups (and will always be OFF - DEF). Impact is how much that lineup increases the team's chances of winning the game, per 48 minutes. So for our starting lineup, the Impact Rating of -1.57 means that on average they reduce the team's chances of winning by 1.57% per 48 minutes played. ZSCORE, as best as I can tell, looks to be some standardized composite rating of THEORY and IMPACT, with SIGMA being the standard deviation. I believe SIMPLE is referring to point differential per game (first number), and total point differential for the season (second numbre). According to this, over the course of the entire season our starting lineup is still above average (relative to all lineups, not starting lineups) because, even though they've been outscored, they're playing above-average competition (obviously, they are starters).
Hayes and (to an extent) Ariza are often brought in for defensive purposes, in games where giving up 5 points instead of 10 is the difference between winning and losing. OTOH Andersen is probably given more minutes when he's shooting well or the favorable matchups allow him open looks, but almost no minutes when a defensive stop is the priority. I'm not sure if the impact rating system takes these factors into consideration. If not, it might explain the difference between Hayes and Andersen's numbers.
It's hard to really put a number on impact because like said above it depends when Adelman wants to yank the chain. Ariza is getting a long leash so his stats will suck compared to Bud who doesn't get many minutes. Some guys that produce off the bench look awesome because yes they are feasting on subs and their minutes really do effect the way they play and how many mistakes they make. It also depends on who is on the floor with them. Half of Lowry's minutes are of him playing an awkward sg with Brooks bringing the ball up the court. That's why we see him chucking open threes sometimes... producing a -35% impact. But other times his impact is huge for us when the team is sluggish and he's running point making the defense collapse when he drives.
I'm not sure what goes into Wayne's "Impact Ratings", but if Carl's playing poorly in the 2nd, it sure can't be on offense. He's shooting 55.4% on FG's and 81.4% on FT's. In terms of scoring points, he's actually scored almost as many points in the 2nd quarter as he has in the 4th. Carl's shooting only 46.8% in the 3rd, but that's pretty much a terrible quarter for most of the Rockets -hence the many 3rd quarter collapses. However, don't foul Carl in the 3rd - the man is shooting 95.8% (23-24) from the FT line in that quarter. Maybe Carl takes time off on defense in those quarters that Wayne mentions and this is taken into account somehow?
I guess you would have to look at Rox +/- numbers and compare them to their opponent's +/- #'s that perticular night, and do the same for the rest of the year scheduled opponents, keeping in mind that the numbers will change for the Rox and for their opponents as the season progresses, and also the adjustments the coach will make during games, and once you do that you will be able to tell if the Rox will make the playoffs. What a nightmare. (I can hear Rainman saying "counting cards, counting cards.") Or just watch the games. These stats may be good for the coaches to make adjustments during a game, someone send this to Rick A.
Adjusted +/- is already "adjusted" for opponents using regression and Morey and his army of nerds already use advanced methods for their stats. Morey's already stated that they use some form of adjusted +/- to make player evaluations.
Yeah, and why did they stop using peach baskets for rims?!?!? I hate that. Dude, I can't imagine what you think of football, with its headsets and all. Or baseball, with its "batting average." Are you an enemy of all things new or what? Stats help the coaches; stats are fun for fans. Problem?
So, since it's kind of difficult to draw a conclusion, I'd like to ask, can we make the playoffs or not? That's all that matters to the end.
Morey said it will probably take about 48 wins to get in the playoffs. At our current pace, we won't get in. The Rockets will most likely made a trade at the deadline to add another offensive player to the team, but he may not be a star. I think we end up with 45 or 46 wins and just miss the playoffs but we're close. It might take some luck (good health for us, an injury to another team, some close wins) to squeeze in.
