Would it be better just to let Tmac's contract expire?

If we renounce him, as opposed to taking, let's say, $16 million in useful contracts and $7 million in junk, we are lowering our total talent level. This doesn't mean only players that are helping us on the court, it also means players that we can throw into trades to get the one piece we want.

Sure, we can renounce him and add a good $7 million contract next year (if I understand Bima correctly). Then what? We wait another year, add what we can get for the MLE. It would take us to the 2012-2013 (possible end of world; must take into account for effects on playoffs) season to get back to the total talent level we'd have by trading him.

Just for conversation's sake, let's say we could bring back the equivalent of Jermaine O'Neal, Richard Jefferson, and Jared Jefferies right now (just using numbers from the initial post in the thread). Again, it's not just how much they help us right now, but what we can get for them in future trades. Don't think we're going to get exactly the $7 million player we want if we renounce TMac, either. DM always looks for value, and some of the players we want are going to be offered more money by some knucklehead GM. It's great that DM looks for value, but it takes longer to find those deals.

 

Not quite. If the Rockets want to re-sign both Scola and Lowry, then it's pretty much just the MLE and LLE that will be available to them this summer. That is, unless Battier is traded before July 1.

 

Considering Tmac's value right now is really his contract rather than his value as a player, I think we should reflect on what happened to big expiring deals in recent memory and the recent trend has been that these big contracts don't get moved...at least for the last two or three years the biggest ones have been that way(marbury and Lafrentz come to mind). We probably do the same.

Houston is going to keep dangling Scola and Lowry out there until they are absolutely sure of their options for marquee players like Bosh. I think a deal of Tmac, Scola, and either Lowry or Brook for Bosh and Calderon actually makes some sense if Bosh makes it clear he isn't coming back AND they have the chance to send Calderon's deal back(not looking like a good deal considering how he has played) BUT this won't happen because Bryan Colangelo is on shaky ground right now and bringing Tmac back to the Tdot won't exactly get the fan base on his side nor will admitting a mistake in the Calderon signing....but on a basketball level it would be a smart move for Toronto to get some production out of PF spot in the wake of Bosh leaving, the chance to sign Tmac on the cheap, and probably their only chance to pick up someone in Lowry who can actually play defense for that roster. Obviously for Houston, the chance to get a marquee PF who actually has a mid range game is a perfect fit for Houston with Yao AND allows them to match up with the super big Lakers.

 

I'd rather trade Tracy for O'Neal. Both huge expiring contract, and at least we would play Jermaine. I'm not a huge fan of him, but it would be worth a shot to see how he does with this team. Not to mention we need more size.

 

Awful idea. O'Neal is a ball stopper - the last thing we need on this team.

 

Dont forget Camby. It would be great if the Rockets could sign him next year!

 

we have a solid team right now all we need to do is add Yao back to this team.

We have enough key players on this team that we have to resign that the last thing we really need to be worried about is signing more free agents.

We wont need a backup center once Yao is healthy because chuck and david and scola can handle those minutes as is.

The only position of need we really have is at 2 guard. I think ariza will be able to fill that role once yao is back in the linup. Trever will get one on one coverage once yao is back on the floor. Trevor is very good at pump fakeing and slashing to the basket for dunks. He is week at spliting double teams of the dribble.

Point im trying to make here is that all we really need to do is resign Luis and Lowry and pickup solid players through draft like we almost every year.

If anthing we will have a better chance at landing a starting two guard through trade next season.

Shane's contract will be expireing plus he still has good value as a player. That means Morey will be able to make some moves.

 

As much as I like Lowry, he is not in 8-10mil range. Not even close.

 

What figure are you using for next year's salary cap? Also, If you have a link handy to your analysis of our cap position next year, I'd like to read it.

 

Is there perhaps any teams/gm's who might actually "take a chance" on Mcgrady in a sense of he might have something left in the tank and thank them by signing a smaller contract for a giving him a chance to play?

 

Of course, as soon as we sign any of our FAs, the cap hit goes down, if we sign them for less. The cap holds vary according to their situations (Bird, etc.), but assume a raise, up to a tripling of the player's salary.

 

The "8-10 million" figure does not equate to Lowry's new salary. It means that, in order for the Rockets to have $8-10M in cap room, they would have to renounce their rights to both Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry, since the cap holds for those two players (both of whom are restricted free agents) would completely (or mostly) eat up all the Rockets' cap room. Frankly, I'd rather re-sign both Scola and Lowry than have $8M to spend on a guy who probably would not be a significant upgrade over just Scola alone.

I did give you a link. Look at my reply to your first post in Post #20 of this thread.

Correct, except that (a) restricted free agency is a long and drawn-out process that often isn't resolved until at least August or September; and (b) it is quite likely that Scola could command MORE than his $6.7M cap hold. Frankly, I don't see any scenario where both Scola and Lowry quickly agree to new contracts with starting salaries significantly below their cap holds, all before talking to other teams trying to gauge their market value around the league. Sure, Lowry can likely be had for below his (~$6.1M) cap hold figure, but he ain't re-signing on July 8.

 

To the op's question:

It might, just depends on the deals that are out there.

One thing that doesn't make sense is buying him out.

DD

 

Why not?

It doesn't make sense to buy him out prior to the trade deadline.

But after the trade deadline, why not save yourself a few million and gain a roster spot for flexibility/auditions if he's willing to give it up?

 

So, we could renounce Scola, Lowry, and Hayes, and have $15 million (less the salary cap decrease) to sign a top FA on the first day of free agency? Might be worth it, depending on whom we can get... though I still say we're much better off trading TMac, if we can keep the junk contracts down to a reasonable level, say, $7 million out of the $23 million.

 

I guess that depends on whether you value any S&T possibilities in the offseason.

For instance it allows teams without cap room that may want him to offer a bit more than the MLE to have a shot.

I agree with you about after the trade deadline, and a lot of that depens upon how the insurance is 'worded' and whether they are still colleting 80% of his salary per game missed.

And if you are Tmac would you be willing to give up $3.5 million for half a year to be free? Because that is the only way it makes sense.

DD

 

Apparently, Morey and the Rockets are adamant about NOT wanting to buyout McGrady's contract, even after the trade deadline. Perhaps the organization views his sign-and-trade value as higher than the cost savings they could realistically get. It's not like McGrady will give back more than about $1-2M of his salary. Also, the Rockets still can get under the luxury tax threshold by bribing another team to take Brian Cook.

That, or Morey is just bluffing to keep T-Mac's trade value from cratering.

 

Nah, I think we should at least grab a prospect or two along with other, smaller expiring contracts. We could then either trade them by the deadline for other pieces/draft picks or let them expire so we have the capspace needed to extend our own players (i.e. Landry, Scola, Lowry, Brooks).

 

Agreed. The best option is a trade for assets, so that's why you don't buy him out now. But, as you say, after the trade deadline it makes perfect sense. Why not save a few extra millions?

 

DD, are you STILL clinking to the idea that the Rockets are going to continue collecting on their insurance policy even after Tracy has shown that he is healthy enough to play an NBA basketball game? I thought this was put to bed the other day with the Richard Justice blog.

Just remove that idea from your head and kill it. Kill it now.