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ClutchFans Game Thread: Clippers @ Rockets 12/22/2009

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Clutch, Dec 21, 2009.

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josh_is_white Member

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automatic win

#21 josh_is_white, Dec 21, 2009

eliefan Member

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This will be the Clippers 4th game in 5 nights (all on the road), so they will be dragging.

#22 eliefan, Dec 21, 2009
HTown_TMac Member

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trap game

#23 HTown_TMac, Dec 21, 2009
Dei Member

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Don't follow the Clippers. Is Blake Griffin playing?

#24 Dei, Dec 21, 2009
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i wanna see landry back in action and maybe some tmac

#25 Blackmamba13, Dec 21, 2009
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Dei said:

Don't follow the Clippers. Is Blake Griffin playing?
Click to expand...

Nope he isn't expected to return until Jan. This might be a trap game but its at home so I predict a snoozer.

#26 sammy, Dec 22, 2009
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dont get cocky.. hopefully we win this, but anything can happen

#27 apollo33, Dec 22, 2009

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TRAP GAME,

(ill be there)

#28 larsv8, Dec 22, 2009
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Rox gotta bring it. Nothing is auto-matic in this league . just ask the Bulls....

#29 vipershot24, Dec 22, 2009
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We can't take anyone lightly. Last thing we need is blowing a 40-point lead in the first quarter.

#30 jsonic6, Dec 22, 2009
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DwangBoy said:

I guess adelman is going to try and get Ariza or Brooks a stress fracture by end of season as well.. how stubborn can you be to not play tmac more when we have a short bench....
Click to expand...

Hopefully this just means JT will get a chance. Can't be playing Ariza 47 mins again, thats nuts.

#31 JayGoogle, Dec 22, 2009
eliefan Member

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I keep wondering if the Rockets train is going to fly off the tracks at some point. I think I have convinced myself that its not. I'll post this here, as it's not deserving of its own thread, but going into the Clippers game, the Rockets are scoring 1.7 more points per game than its opponent. Based on the basketball Pythagorean expectation, we should have a 46-36 record at the end of the season if we continue to score 101.3 points per game and give up 99.6 PPG. Essentially what this says is, "Give me a good points differential, and I'll give you a good record." The top 5 in points differential are BOS, LAL, ATL, DEN, and ORL, so this stat doesn't lie.

So that said, in order to score more points than the other team, at least one of the following must be true:
A) Score more points from free throws
B) Shoot more 2-pt shots
C) Shoot better on 2-pt shots (higher FG%)
D) Shoot more 3-pt shots
E) Shoot better on 3-pt shots (higher 3PT %)

So let's see which of these are true. For the Rockets so far this season:
A) False - the Rockets score 1.0 fewer points from FT than its opponents per game
B) False - the Rockets shoot 3.9 fewer 2-pt FGs than its opponents per game
C) False - the Rockets 2-pg FG%=48.6, opponents = 49.0
D) True - the Rockets shoot 7.6 more 3s per game than its opponents
E) False - the Rockets 3PT%=34.0, opponents=35.0

So the only reason the Rockets are scoring more points is because we're shooting more 3s.

In the Shane Battier chapter in SI's book "The Art of a Beautiful Game" (previously mentioned on CF a while back - a good read), it says opponents' shots hurt you in the following order:
1) Dunks/Layups - don't give these up on a consistent basis
2) 3s from the corner - shorter 3pt than everywhere else
3) 3s from everywhere but the corner
4) 2-pt jump shots - few players hit these consistently

So from this, I take it a team is more efficient at scoring points by shooting 3s than they are 2-pt jump shots. That's exactly what Houston is doing right now. To keep the math simple, you can score more points shooting 5 shots from 3 and hit 40% than you can shooting 5 shots from 2-pt and hit 50%. What Houston is doing is electing to shoot from 3 at a 34% clip than to shoot from 2 at a 48.6% rate, while its opponents are not choosing to do this nearly as often. As long as the Rox can shoot north of 33% from 3 (Hou's 3s need to offset the opponent shooting 49% from two) and maintain everything else, the positive point differential should continue to hold. Thus the Rockets' train stays on the tracks and we head to Playoffville.

#32 eliefan, Dec 22, 2009

1 person likes this.
lauradelenn Member

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Beautiful post. Thanks!

eliefan said:

I keep wondering if the Rockets train is going to fly off the tracks at some point. I think I have convinced myself that its not. I'll post this here, as it's not deserving of its own thread, but going into the Clippers game, the Rockets are scoring 1.7 more points per game than its opponent. Based on the basketball Pythagorean expectation, we should have a 46-36 record at the end of the season if we continue to score 101.3 points per game and give up 99.6 PPG. Essentially what this says is, "Give me a good points differential, and I'll give you a good record." The top 5 in points differential are BOS, LAL, ATL, DEN, and ORL, so this stat doesn't lie.

So that said, in order to score more points than the other team, at least one of the following must be true:
A) Score more points from free throws
B) Shoot more 2-pt shots
C) Shoot better on 2-pt shots (higher FG%)
D) Shoot more 3-pt shots
E) Shoot better on 3-pt shots (higher 3PT %)

So let's see which of these are true. For the Rockets so far this season:
A) False - the Rockets score 1.0 fewer points from FT than its opponents per game
B) False - the Rockets shoot 3.9 fewer 2-pt FGs than its opponents per game
C) False - the Rockets 2-pg FG%=48.6, opponents = 49.0
D) True - the Rockets shoot 7.6 more 3s per game than its opponents
E) False - the Rockets 3PT%=34.0, opponents=35.0

So the only reason the Rockets are scoring more points is because we're shooting more 3s.

In the Shane Battier chapter in SI's book "The Art of a Beautiful Game" (previously mentioned on CF a while back - a good read), it says opponents' shots hurt you in the following order:
1) Dunks/Layups - don't give these up on a consistent basis
2) 3s from the corner - shorter 3pt than everywhere else
3) 3s from everywhere but the corner
4) 2-pt jump shots - few players hit these consistently

So from this, I take it a team is more efficient at scoring points by shooting 3s than they are 2-pt jump shots. That's exactly what Houston is doing right now. To keep the math simple, you can score more points shooting 5 shots from 3 and hit 40% than you can shooting 5 shots from 2-pt and hit 50%. What Houston is doing is electing to shoot from 3 at a 34% clip than to shoot from 2 at a 48.6% rate, while its opponents are not choosing to do this nearly as often. As long as the Rox can shoot north of 33% from 3 (Hou's 3s need to offset the opponent shooting 49% from two) and maintain everything else, the positive point differential should continue to hold. Thus the Rockets' train stays on the tracks and we head to Playoffville.
Click to expand...

#33 lauradelenn, Dec 22, 2009

J.R. Member

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Matt Bullard will be doing another live chat tonight(like he did during the Cavs game)

#34 J.R., Dec 22, 2009
LewLLOYD Member

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hsf09 said:

Matt Bullard will be doing another live chat tonight(like he did during the Cavs game)
Click to expand...

link?

#35 LewLLOYD, Dec 22, 2009
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3 in a row!! No Chase so hopefully Lowry can step up again. Despite chase's absence, don't expect to see mcgrady's minutes increase.
Final score rox 104-99 clips

#36 fnn2097, Dec 22, 2009
Dream Shake 81 Member

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You must have just taken finals or somthing.. LOL

eliefan said:

I keep wondering if the Rockets train is going to fly off the tracks at some point. I think I have convinced myself that its not. I'll post this here, as it's not deserving of its own thread, but going into the Clippers game, the Rockets are scoring 1.7 more points per game than its opponent. Based on the basketball Pythagorean expectation, we should have a 46-36 record at the end of the season if we continue to score 101.3 points per game and give up 99.6 PPG. Essentially what this says is, "Give me a good points differential, and I'll give you a good record." The top 5 in points differential are BOS, LAL, ATL, DEN, and ORL, so this stat doesn't lie.

So that said, in order to score more points than the other team, at least one of the following must be true:
A) Score more points from free throws
B) Shoot more 2-pt shots
C) Shoot better on 2-pt shots (higher FG%)
D) Shoot more 3-pt shots
E) Shoot better on 3-pt shots (higher 3PT %)

So let's see which of these are true. For the Rockets so far this season:
A) False - the Rockets score 1.0 fewer points from FT than its opponents per game
B) False - the Rockets shoot 3.9 fewer 2-pt FGs than its opponents per game
C) False - the Rockets 2-pg FG%=48.6, opponents = 49.0
D) True - the Rockets shoot 7.6 more 3s per game than its opponents
E) False - the Rockets 3PT%=34.0, opponents=35.0

So the only reason the Rockets are scoring more points is because we're shooting more 3s.

In the Shane Battier chapter in SI's book "The Art of a Beautiful Game" (previously mentioned on CF a while back - a good read), it says opponents' shots hurt you in the following order:
1) Dunks/Layups - don't give these up on a consistent basis
2) 3s from the corner - shorter 3pt than everywhere else
3) 3s from everywhere but the corner
4) 2-pt jump shots - few players hit these consistently

So from this, I take it a team is more efficient at scoring points by shooting 3s than they are 2-pt jump shots. That's exactly what Houston is doing right now. To keep the math simple, you can score more points shooting 5 shots from 3 and hit 40% than you can shooting 5 shots from 2-pt and hit 50%. What Houston is doing is electing to shoot from 3 at a 34% clip than to shoot from 2 at a 48.6% rate, while its opponents are not choosing to do this nearly as often. As long as the Rox can shoot north of 33% from 3 (Hou's 3s need to offset the opponent shooting 49% from two) and maintain everything else, the positive point differential should continue to hold. Thus the Rockets' train stays on the tracks and we head to Playoffville.
Click to expand...

#37 Dream Shake 81, Dec 22, 2009
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LewLLOYD said:

link?
Click to expand...

http://twitter.com/FSHouston/status/6935959705

#38 J.R., Dec 22, 2009

Moonscope Member

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eliefan said:

I keep wondering if the Rockets train is going to fly off the tracks at some point. I think I have convinced myself that its not. I'll post this here, as it's not deserving of its own thread, but going into the Clippers game, the Rockets are scoring 1.7 more points per game than its opponent. Based on the basketball Pythagorean expectation, we should have a 46-36 record at the end of the season if we continue to score 101.3 points per game and give up 99.6 PPG. Essentially what this says is, "Give me a good points differential, and I'll give you a good record." The top 5 in points differential are BOS, LAL, ATL, DEN, and ORL, so this stat doesn't lie.

So that said, in order to score more points than the other team, at least one of the following must be true:
A) Score more points from free throws
B) Shoot more 2-pt shots
C) Shoot better on 2-pt shots (higher FG%)
D) Shoot more 3-pt shots
E) Shoot better on 3-pt shots (higher 3PT %)

So let's see which of these are true. For the Rockets so far this season:
A) False - the Rockets score 1.0 fewer points from FT than its opponents per game
B) False - the Rockets shoot 3.9 fewer 2-pt FGs than its opponents per game
C) False - the Rockets 2-pg FG%=48.6, opponents = 49.0
D) True - the Rockets shoot 7.6 more 3s per game than its opponents
E) False - the Rockets 3PT%=34.0, opponents=35.0

So the only reason the Rockets are scoring more points is because we're shooting more 3s.

In the Shane Battier chapter in SI's book "The Art of a Beautiful Game" (previously mentioned on CF a while back - a good read), it says opponents' shots hurt you in the following order:
1) Dunks/Layups - don't give these up on a consistent basis
2) 3s from the corner - shorter 3pt than everywhere else
3) 3s from everywhere but the corner
4) 2-pt jump shots - few players hit these consistently

So from this, I take it a team is more efficient at scoring points by shooting 3s than they are 2-pt jump shots. That's exactly what Houston is doing right now. To keep the math simple, you can score more points shooting 5 shots from 3 and hit 40% than you can shooting 5 shots from 2-pt and hit 50%. What Houston is doing is electing to shoot from 3 at a 34% clip than to shoot from 2 at a 48.6% rate, while its opponents are not choosing to do this nearly as often. As long as the Rox can shoot north of 33% from 3 (Hou's 3s need to offset the opponent shooting 49% from two) and maintain everything else, the positive point differential should continue to hold. Thus the Rockets' train stays on the tracks and we head to Playoffville.
Click to expand...

I appreciate this post, it uses simple math to provide a reason the Rockets are winning. Nice summizing.

#39 Moonscope, Dec 22, 2009
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WAFER GET 40

#40 GlenRice, Dec 22, 2009

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