http://www.hoopdata.com/recent.aspx?aid=53 A lot of what is discussed in the article should be familiar to people here that have been paying attention. Still, I think its a good read. [rquoter] ... The two small forwards are by no means mirror images of each other and carry much different risk profiles. Ron Artest’s emotional baggage has the potential to become a monumental burden on a team full of established stars located in a city notorious for ego. Additionally, the one-time All-Star has never been asked to play the fourth fiddle on any team; entering the year, Artest had never posted a usage rate below 20 percent. Furthermore, the 30-year old must maintain his status as an ultra-stopper on the perimeter. If Artest were to lose his defensive value, he might not be worth any contract given how many red flags he carries. Ariza, on the other hand, has a much higher upside than Artest. At just 25-years old, the UCLA product had already five years of NBA experience under his belt and the tools to become a star player in the league. This is his big opportunity. Instead of being pigeon-holed as a spot up shooter, he can fully blossom as a dynamic offensive player with all the casualties the Rockets have endured. If he can maintain his defensive prowess, he has the potential to be a huge bargain for the Rockets. But Ariza comes with some risk as well. After all, the Rockets handed the mid-level exception to someone who has never averaged 10 points per game in a season. All things considered, the Artest-Ariza swap created a great opportunity to watch two players adapt to unfamiliar environments. Artest would have to turn down the volume and Ariza would make his long-awaited debut as the main event. As we turn the corner into December, it’s safe to say that both teams are happy with where they stand. ... Take a look at that progression from 3-point land. In 2006-07, Trevor Ariza took a total of 7 three-pointers in 1,278 minutes of action. Seven. Now he takes seven per game. In fact, prior to 2008-09, he made a total of nine threes in his first three years in the league. He notched nine threes by his fourth game this year in Houston. I could go on all day with these factoids. With that said, Ariza’s offensive efficiency has completely fallen off this year which should be a concern since Houston gave him the keys to the offense. The Rockets don’t have an alternative at the moment but that will change with Tracy McGrady waiting in the wings. Ariza’s effective field goal percentage should be much higher given his appetite for threes. His eFG% ranks 34th among 42 players who receive 35+ minutes of playing time per game. In years past, Ariza didn’t have a short and mid range game but with more usage this season, he’s forced to shoot in these areas a couple times a game. Amazingly, he has only converted on 6 out of 35 attempts from these areas. Fantasy owners can be happy with Ariza’s inflated per game numbers as he has a 50 percent increase in both playing time and usage this season but he has certainly struggled in his expanded role. His inefficiency with the added responsibility is a classic example of Oliver’s offensive skill curve tradeoff, indicating that he may be better utilized in a complementary role. As a spot up shooter for the Lakers last year, he took up only about 16 percent of the Lakers offense and he scored about 114 points per possessions. Contrast that with this year where his usage has soared to 24 percent and his offensive rating has tumbled to 100. Moreover, Ariza’s newfound perimeter game prevents him from grabbing offensive rebounds like he used to. There’s no doubt that some of Ariza’s previous offensive strengths have been neutralized to pedestrian levels with his new role as a shot creator. The Rockets certainly understood that Ariza’s game undergo a bit of a transformation in Houston but so far he has struggled to balance responsibility and effectiveness on offense. However, given Ariza’s growing pains, the Rockets should be pleased that they are 10-8 at this stage. McGrady and Yao Ming’s return down the road should relieve Ariza much of the scoring burden and let him step away from the spotlight. Ariza and Artest may feature nearly identical shot distributions this season but their respective roles have had a polarizing effect on their efficiencies. Ariza’s freedom has exposed some holes in his game while Artest can hide his shortcomings behind his teammates. In the end, the swap offers a great lesson on the enormous impact a player’s environment can have on productivity. [/rquoter]
Interesting that Ariza's 3-point shots have a higher percentage than his shots at rim this year. In fact, it seems to be a trend that his close shots are declining while his 3s are improving.
I really love the chart. I wish more of these metrics came with "easy to read and understand" charts like that (and I'm not kidding!). Would like to see the same chart with the shooting percentages for those years. I wonder what Battier's stats would be in comparison. I've always thought he had a midrange game he didn't use, being far too often parked at the corners for the trey, as well as a halfway decent game in the post. From the looks of that info, Trevor should be attacking the rim much more and doing his own "parking" at the 3 point line, as well as talking fewer shots. (topic sounds familiar! )
Thanks for the read. Despite the graph, what I like about Trevor is his *effort* in taking more of a variety of shots. He hasn't ever had the responsibility or the long leash to try new things on offense. He's definitely had his shooting woes as of late, but at least he's trying to improve his overall game. Give Trevor a year or two and I think he will be a bonafide scorer with more efficiency. If you take into account his age, potential and the coaching support around him, Trevor is going to be a problem for the league.
IMO ariza takes way to many threes. He should not be taking more the. 3 a game unless he is on that night .. Also j think ariza is a pretty good finisher inside once he gets there. The only problem is he may turn it over trying to drive inside. I like ariza and I think he can be more efficient once he works on his shot selection an stops forcing up jumpers as that is not the strong part of his game. He should be shooting aroud 10-14 shots a game. K think Brooks needs to shoot more . Rite now Brooks trys too much to drive it In and create and most of the time it results In a TO. He could have jut shot it and probally made it as he is a good shooter. He still has alot of work to do whe. It comes to seeing the court
Terrible chart - doesn't take into account playing time or shot volume, both which affect the composition of shots.
The chart is meant to illustrate what is happening, not why it is happening. You need to know the "what" before you can move on to intelligently discuss the "why". The impact of increased possession usage on Ariza's efficiency was discussed in the actual text of the article.
This argument of Ariza vs Artest ignores how much less efficient Artest would have been had he been the primary option on our team without Yao or T-Mac. We saw this a few times in the regular season last year and in the last four games of the playoffs vs LA. While this team without established "stars" has operated with a quiet confidence knowing that we have just as much talent as most teams, Artest even as a Rocket would have been on the side of the opposition, operating with the mindset that it was just him and a bunch of "scrubs". His attempts to put us on his back would have absolutely destroyed us, both on the court and in the locker room. Honestly there was no recourse than to let Artest go, even if our ability to get Ariza was no certainty.
trevor has to be our main weapon.this decision was made not by himself but coach RA.Since our two all-star yao and mac out ,the main purpose for this season is to develop more players,like lowry ,landry and budinger.but mostly important one is trevor,he would be a decent role player along with Yao.when yao was doubled,this team needs someone else creat his own shoot. Among all the guys,trevor possess the biggest athletic ability.No doubt he needs to should more responsibility.This season's playing will help him to be more confident and learn how to play a leader role when yao rest on the bench. In a summary,I do think trevor deserve the biggest possibility to be the best player currently and 2nd or 3rd choice next season,great role player in a champiship rotation.Go trevor.
I have just one question: Is Trevor Ariza the worst player in Rockets modern history, who has a chance to be a leader? :grin: Аrtest, T-Mac, Yao, Francis, Barkley, Clyde, Dream, Ralph... Scottie doesn't count. He is one of the Greatest SF ever
What were your predictions regarding the way the individuals handled the role change Durvasa? I had a feeling both would look better in their previous stops but I had a little more faith in Arizas ability to improve. I personally think hes in a slump.
I didn't expect Ariza's usage to be as high as it is. I thought he'd be a 12-13 ppg scorer, decent efficiency, playing more or less the role he played with the Lakers except with more minutes. I expected Brooks and Scola to be the leading scorers, with Landry being a potential breakout scorer.
