Come on Cat. The Spurs play is based on the Twin Towers line-up, and David Robinson is NO twin to Duncan anymore. It's not strictly a Mavs vs. Spurs matchup. We'll go with your theory that the Mavs haven't beaten the Spurs in a big game. But who says they'll meet? I see only one way that San Antonio will make the top 2: Sign Larry Hughes. No matter how good the Argentinian is, you and me both know that you need a year to adjust to the NBA. If you need it from College, then you sure as hell need it from Argentina/Europe. Robinson/Duncan Duncan/Rose Bowen Smith/Daniels Parker/Daniels Compared to: Lafrentz/Zhi Zhi/Bradley Nowitzki Najera Finley Nash/NVE That team doesn't lack defense. Finly, Nash and Najera play GREAT defense. Lafrentz and Bradley bring around 3 blocks per 48 minutes. Nowitzki is the only real lability (which is why I think he ain't a MAX player). Duncan will absolutely destroy Nowitzki. But will any of the Spurs other players be able to matchup against any of the Dallas players? I'm saying this based on talent and ability. Not on past history, or how they matchup. Talent-wise, Mavs are better. The difference in defensive ability does NOT make it up for the Spurs. I really didn't believe in the Mavs, if you must know. Still hate them. But they deserve the props. About the Lakers: You hate them. I like them. No use debating, because my argument is that they don't need to play full-steam in the regular season. No one thought they'd win yet again did they?
I don't see anyway the Suns make the playoffs. The Sonics will make the playoffs only if they have a near perfect season with no injuries. The Rockets are better than both of those teams even with last years lineup.
I could make a case that the Rockets WITHOUT Rice and Mo T would make the playoffs as the 8th seed. but we have them both playing 20 important minutes for us. That's got to put us at #7 or higher.
The Lakers and Kings are the two best teams in the whole league they are locks. The Spurs and Mavs are the next two best teams in the league, they are playoff locks as well (assuming TD doesn't get injured). Portland and the Wolves are very close to being locks for the playoffs. Portland isn't anything special, but with Sheed, Wells, Pippen, DA, and some other decent players--they will make the playoffs. As for Minn, look at their record and changing personnel the last 3-4 years. KG has been their only constant, and a bunch of CBAs guys around him are enough to make the playoffs. Guys like Billips, Nest and even Wally aren't that big of deal. Peeler, Brandon (even if he is 1/3rd of what he was), Jackson, Smith, Trent, and Woods are just mediocre enough around KG to make a playoffs team. While Portland or Minn could get passed from some of the teams below, they will not pass 9th in the west I all but assure you. BORDERLINE TEAMS: 7-8 slots are wide open. Right now I'd say: Seattle (7) is the favorite of the rest. They were 7th last year after all. If Lewis leaves they odds on don't make the playoffs, but with him returning and minimal production from Booth, Mason and Baker--they are odds on in. Still, they easiliy could get passed by the Rockets or Clips if the latter makes a deal and I see no way the Sonics ever get close to the Westerm elite. In short they are totally stuck in quick first round exit mediocrity for a while. I like Houston (8) or Utah (9) next. If the last few years have shown anything, you can count on the Jazz to be on the receiving end of a good 1st round playoff spanking at the Delta Center. I think this might be the year these enjoyable events end, but they always surprise so I won't count them out. Houston is the X factor in the west. Depending on what the Ming, Mo and Nachbar's arrivals do, plus Griffin's progress, plus Francis headaches, we could be talking the 5 spot, or the 10 spot. JUST OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS (joining Utah) I am not buying the Clips yet. "As is" they are not a playoff team--their backcourt and shooting sucks too bad releative to the other WC playoff caliber teams. A Miller or Davis trade (the other X factor in the West) could get them to the 5 spot, but without that I see them solidly out of the playoffs with the resergance of the Rockets--especially if they lose McInnis. NO CHANCE FOR THE PLAYOFFS Phx--they are toast. That is why they drafted a high schooler and shedded every vet another team was willing to take on last year. I see almost no chance they make the playoffs next year. Gizzards, Warriors and especially the Nugs are toast even before the season starts too, but at least now they may have company with one of the better run organizations over the last 15 years.
Come on Cat. The Spurs play is based on the Twin Towers line-up, and David Robinson is NO twin to Duncan anymore. It's not strictly a Mavs vs. Spurs matchup. We'll go with your theory that the Mavs haven't beaten the Spurs in a big game. But who says they'll meet? Not necessarily. Without David Robinson or with him at about 70%, they destroyed the Sonics (game 4 was when Duncan was out) and were in every game with the Lakers. They were competitive without him or with him at a small percentage, and he should be ready for next year. After the All-Star break, he was averaging about 14 and 10 for over a couple of months before the back injury. I see only one way that San Antonio will make the top 2: Sign Larry Hughes. No matter how good the Argentinian is, you and me both know that you need a year to adjust to the NBA. If you need it from College, then you sure as hell need it from Argentina/Europe. Gasol didn't need it. Though Gasol was a higher regarded prospect, Ginobili also would've been a higher pick had he been available to play that year. Also, I hope you don't expect Ming or Nachbar to contribute much, because it's the same principle. I think Hughes would be a nice addition, but not necessary. That team doesn't lack defense. Finly, Nash and Najera play GREAT defense. Lafrentz and Bradley bring around 3 blocks per 48 minutes. Nowitzki is the only real lability (which is why I think he ain't a MAX player). Nash plays GREAT defense? Hahaha. He's one of the worst defensive point guards in the league! Finley used to play great defense, but now he's about average, maybe a little above average. Many Mavs fans speculate that the other players on the team that don't play defense (Dirk, Nash) have rubbed off on Finley, because he's not the one on one defender that he was a few seasons ago. Najera is good, but undersized. You can make the same argument with a lot of teams and the Spurs. The Rockets have them beat at every position but power forward. The Sonics, who the Spurs defeated pretty handily (without Robinson) had them beat at every position besides power forward. A dominant low post player, and the MVP of the league, can change a lot of factors. The Spurs are built around arguably the best player in the league, and they have fabulous chemistry and players that know their roles. That can make up for talent.
Blazers and Phoenix might slip out of the playoffs, Minnesota will make the playoffs unless Garnett gets injured. And I believe this is the right forum because the main reason of the thread is to discuss the impact of a potential trade by other teams ON THE ROCKETS.
Kevin Garnett can't do it by himself. I know there are people that think Garnett = automatic playoffs but that isn't true. Barkley made it to the playoffs countless times with the 76ers and then finally, after years of personnel turnover they missed the playoffs and Barkley was soon traded afterwards. In the 90s the Rockets, after years of making the playoffs with Hakeem, missed the playoffs. The league is getting better and T-Wolves aren't. That's a SERIOUS concern on their part.
The Cat, healthy or not, Robinson isn't that effective anymore. He's just not the player he was. But you look at the Spurs cast, and they don't have talent outside of Duncan and maybe Parker. But, the next best player is Parker? Then they're in trouble. I dont expect anything from Ming and Nachbar but development. You can't base anything on Gasol. Gasol is probably the only young foreign rookie ever to make such an impact. Forget that, the Spurs rookie is almost a lock to be a defensive liability. So you have Malik Rose, Tony Parker, Daniels, and this rookie playing big minutes, then you're going to have defensive problems. The Spurs best bet for making the top 2? The rookie plays as well as Gasol, Parker shows good improvement, Robinson plays better than last year, and Smith doesn't look old.
Look at Minnesotta's record the last 3-4 years. Look at the different combinations of players around KG early, mid, and late season the last few years. The only constant is KG--and they have been good enough to make the playoffs but never a real threat to advance. Same thing will happen this year as long as KG stays healthy. Because the league is so watered down the few elite superstars out their like KG and TD can have mostly sucky players around them and post good records for their teams. That wasn't as true for Barkley's last years with Phily. I don't even think the Suns brass trully believe they will be in the playoffs next year. They are not in the playoff borderline class of teams like the Jazz, Rockets, Sonics and maybe Clips--who all have legit playoff aspirations but certainly no assurences.
Some things to consider when evaluating Western conference team's playoff chances: Minnesota has lost Chauncey Billups, who agreed to a deal in principle for the mid-level exception with Detroit. They're likely to lose Radoslav Nesterovic to free agency as well, meaning they're going to lose 2 starters from last season and the only legitimate center they had on the roster. William Avery, who is terrible, is the only insurance the Wolves have to perpetually injured Terrell Brandon. One twisted ankle could send that team into disarray. Seattle will likely let their starting center from last season, Jerome James, walk since they already overpaid for Calvin Booth. The Clippers aren't getting Baron Davis. Bob Bass has unequivocally said "Baron Davis is under contract and we have no intention of trading him." Jeff McGinnis wasn't tendered an offer from the Clippers, meaning he's gone, leaving them with a 3rd year pg coming off a major injury in Keyon Dooling and a seasoned, yet unaccustomed Marco Jaric as their only point guards. As much as their character is questioned, I just can't our backcourt letting this team fail with the pieces that are now in place.
The Clippers share some of the same fundamental problems we have: No team/help defense, and poor shot selection. When they went man to man for D, they did better, but with the new defensive rules, it might not be the most effective. On talent alone (with the Clips getting a quality PG) both of our teams should earn a spot, but that's never the case for many teams. The Rockets have their own hurdles. They're integrating what they hope to be are 3 key players (Mo Taylor, Boki, and Cato ) in their rotation, maybe even two starters and a 6th man. To get up and running, that means we'll have to rely on talent for the first two months which probably means it'll be like last year where every day Rudy had a new rotation up and running. It's going to be unstable for a while, while the other conference powers might have a solid lineup for the moment.
Minnesota now has just Marc Jackson at the center slot, with the loss of Nesterovic seemingly imminent. Billups is as good as gone. They need serious help at the 5, have an aging PG coming off injury as their only true PG (unless you count 2nd round pick Marcus Taylor, who's probably 3 years away at least), and need depth pretty much everywhere. Don't forget the Clippers also have Kandi to resign. If they don't do that, they basically have no shot of the playoffs this year.
Cat: Gasol also played for an utterly terrible team. Despite his excellent #'s, the team sucked. Remember Vince Carter his first year? He made the Raptors a better team. And I don't even like Vince Carter. I don't see that Gasol meant much at all in terms of wins. Not saying he's not a good player... but he wasn't *that* influential in his team's success. And he's a much more highly regarded prospect. Admit it: you just love the Spurs . The Spurs will be the #4 or #5 seed unless Duncan gets injured. If he's gone for long, they'll be in the lottery. I'm just not that worried about the Clippers. I happen to think that both Davis and Miller are overrated. Miller's another stat guy who didn't seem to help his team win. And his gaudy #'s were partly produced by a system that encouraged immediate jump shooting as opposed to one-on-one play. Baron Davis is a very nice player, I'll agree. But at the same time... Ming > Kandi (maybe not, but I'd say that if someone stuck a gun to my head) Griffin < Brand (but not by too much if Griffin can block tons of shots and improve his scoring; Brand's real problem his lack of intimidation in the paint) Richardson > Rice/Nachbar Mobley > Odom ( yes, Odom has more talent, but I'm assuming he'll be a headcase again, since he has ever since college) Francis > Miller/Davis (Francis had almost as little talent as Miller to work with, but managed to take a team to 45 wins in the West... Miller's team has been pure crap in the pathetic East... Davis is good, but he had good teammates as well) And the Rockets have more up-side, too. Like, what if Wilcox does pan out? He can't shoot nearly well enough to play the 3. So all there is for him is garbage time at the 4 behind Brand, since he's too small to play the 5. But what if guys like Nachbar, Ming, and Griffin all play as well as we hope? What if Rice shrugs off his injuries, and returns even to his Lakers-day form? The only real possible upside I see for the Clips is if Odom loses his problems. If that happens ,they're to be feared. Otherwise, I think Houston will be better.
Baron Davis on the Clippers is one hell of a scary thought. Brand, Baron, Lamar, Q and Darius. That would be one TOUGH team. Not to mention the fact they just got Wilcox and Ely. If they resign the Kandi man. Watch out. Of course, I am leaving out he fact they would have to trade someone, which could easily be Odom or Q. Still that si a young great team and with a winner like baron running it the sky is the limit. they havent had a poitn like him.
The summer sure doe sbring on the optimist and the amnesia. Say it to yourself in the mirror five time every morning until the season starts: "We won 28 games last season." I like how all of a sudden Houston is going to be better than Seattle(who also has a lot of young players and an All Star pg), San Antonio, and Portland. Also I think the Suns top 3(Marbury, Marion, and Johnson) are better than (Francis, Mobely, and Griffin). You guys are a year away from making the playoffs(at least), I do hope you make it though because that will mean my Grizzlies are in the playoffs
Every year we say the Jazz will do horrible. And every year those old bastards find some kind of way to sneak into the playoffs. I hope this is the year they finally live up (or down) to expectations. Also, Mavs are better than the sorry Spurs, no matter what "best non-Rocket fan poster," The Cat says.
Say it to yourself in the mirror five time every morning until the season starts: "The Rockets lacked 3 of their starters including their all-star PG for a good portion of last year." Yeah, you're right MemphisX, amnesia is affecting some posters here. Oh, and Starbury, Marion, and Johnson is better than Francis, Mobley, and Griffin? So you're the one guy in the world that would actually make that trade . . . The only guy on your list of Phoenix players that I would even consider giving up anything significant for is Marion (maybe Mobley or Griffin) and I would have to think long and hard about that deal before I pulled the trigger.
The Mavs are due for a major let down. The Rox will be battling with them and SA for the division, but the battle for the Conference will be, once again, in the Pacific.
