The myths surrounding Cuttino Mobley

Long post to reply to!

I stand corrected... I thought Mercer had more than 1 assist than Cuttino rather than 0.8. But that means every 5 games, Mercer had 4 more assists than Cuttino, and 2 would have to have led to a three for him to have been responsible for the same number of points. But again, you're arguing whether an assist led to a three or not and are saying this season is not comparable to Mobley's? I think you should stop and realize how ridiculous that sounds given the numbers. If Ron Mercer's name was "Kobe Bryant" or was instead a 40-year old Michael Jordan, you'd be recognizing these two seasons as near identical.

The total numbers of the seasons are comparable, but it seems funny to me that Mercer's two best seasons came when he was a part of two of the worst teams in the league. Though you could say that about our team this past year, in 2000-01 Mobley proved he could produce those numbers on a winning team.

* PPS is a slanted statistic used for efficiency when it takes in to consideration total points in relation to the amount of shots taken. Free throw points are part of the total points, and can come as a result of non-shooting actions, including intentional fouls, fouls in the penalty and technical free throws, which Mobley benefits from. You would have to determine which of those free throws came from shooting actions to determine true points per shot. Also, a turnover on a drive attempting to shoot does not count as a shot attempt, yet fans can see a player take it upon himself to drive in to three defenders, turn the ball over and think, "man, this guy is a ballhog" without being a "Mobley hater".

Free throws would slightly slant the statistic, but not enough to make a huge difference. Here is the number of free throws per game for all of the guards I used in my original post.

Mobley -- 4.2
Finley -- 3.6
Houston -- 4.4
Szczberbiak -- 3.3
Iverson -- 9.75
Allen -- 3.6
Wells -- 3.9

With the exception of Iverson, all of the other players are within 1.1 points of one another. That's not enough to be a significant difference in PPS. Also, Cuttino averages 2.4 turnovers per game. As with most guards, at least 60% of those come from a bad pass or losing the ball. Other scenarios, such as a turnover on a drive attempting to shoot, do occur, but it is hard to imagine those as more than 40% of Cuttino's turnovers, and even that is a stretch. If you count those as 40%, which IMO is about the max you can realistically do, you get about 1 turnover per game. Even if you put that as a shot attempt, it still does not influence the PPS very much.

Also, if you recognize this PPS as the end-all in offensive efficiency, then you should recognize the fact that Shandon Anderson was the clear starter while here in Houston. His PPS was 1.30 in 1999-2000 and 1.20 in 2000-2001, both higher than Cuttino's 1.18 last season. Given Shandon is the better defender of the two, that makes that a gimme. Erick Strickland, Damon Jones and Wang Zhizhi are a few others more efficient offensively than Cuttino given this stat. Oscar Torres was a 1.14, which is right with Cuttino. Brent Barry is probably the best 2-guard in the world at 1.47, annihilating Pierce, McGrady and Kobe. Or maybe PPS just doesn't tell the story.

I don't recognize it as the end-all offensive efficiency for all offensive players. I explained this in a response to your earlier post, but I guess you missed that. PPS is a valid stat for creators. For players who create their own shot and are responsible for generating offense on their teams, it is an accurate statistic. Spot-up shooters are naturally going to have an advantage in PPS, since they generally only take wide open shots or layups (Barry, Anderson)

How can we compare Mobley's efficiency to that of Wally Szczerbiak when Wally is a career 51% shooter from the field, 41% from long range and last season shot better from 22-feet out than Mobley did from anywhere on the floor?

Again, Wally is not solely a creator, like the previous response. His role is a bit of both. From time to time, he does have to dribble, go around picks, and create his own shot, which separates him from Brent Barry. However, like Barry, he also does a significant amount of standing around the three point line waiting for the open shot. Because he is less of a creator than Cuttino and other two guards, he naturally gets higher percentage shots, which influence his field goal percentage and PPS.

Over the past 3 seasons, the Rockets are 74-75 (.497) when Mobley takes 16 shots or less. When Mobley takes 17 shots or more the Rockets are 32-53 (.376). And before you say those numbers are bloated from last season, keep in mind the winning season of 2001 that keeps getting referred to in order to set Mobley apart: The Rockets were 31-19 (.620) in 2001 when Cuttino shot 16 times or less. They were 13-16 (.448) when he shot 17 times or more. This is signficantly damaging to the cause that says Mobley is worthy of 18.3 shots per game, which is what he took last season.

Re-read my original post. I NEVER said that Mobley should shoot 18.3 times per game next season. I stated that both Francis and Mobley need to limit their shots next season and take higher percentage shots. However, the majority of the games where Cuttino shot 17 shots or more were when Francis, Hakeem, Mo, or other prominent Rockets were injured, and Cuttino had to shoot that many. The reason we had the higher winning percentage wasn't that Cuttino was less selfish; it was that we had more scoring options and versatility, and Mobley will shoot less when there are more creators on the floor.

I agree that Mobley needs to shoot 16 times or less on average for us to have the best chance of winning next year. With the scoring options we have, 18 shots per game will significantly limit touches for everyone else. But, in the past, Mobley has never shown a selfishness that he will not defer when the talent is there. Last season's shots per game are skewed because of the injuries to Francis, Rice, and Taylor, which made him take more shots. In the winning season of 2001, where he shot over 16 shots 29 times, Hakeem was out of the starting lineup for 27 games. Mo missed 13 games. Mobley's shot attempts are usually influenced by the quality of the other players on the floor. The losing percentage is more a result of injuries and less scoring options than it is Mobley's selfishness.

The trap being used to make Mobley look like a respectable passer is to use Michael Finley's numbers, saying Finley must be "as bad a passer as Mobley then" since their assists were not that far off last season (3.3 for Finley and 2.5 for Mobley). However, it's not being pointed out the critical area of turnovers, where Finley is a 2-to-1 assist to turnover guy while Mobley is a 1-to-1. This is a huge difference and ignoring it proves to be the fatal flaw of this argument tactic.

Assist to turnover ratio isn't a good statistic to use for shooting guards. You're also trying to use Mobley's turnovers in multiple ways. Earlier you claim that many of his turnovers come from driving into three people for a shot. Now, you're claiming that his turnovers reflect on his passing. Can you attribute it to both? Sure. But don't use that 2.4 figure both times. If you stand by your earlier statement (he makes turnovers from driving into multiple players), then Mobley's assist to turnover ratio isn't fully reflective on his passing, since many of his turnovers come from other areas besides passing.

I'm not sure how Mobley's higher turnovers can be blamed on his teammates, as you seem to use this as a crutch for his lower assists. Never mind that Cuttino has put up the same 2.5 assists for 4 years running, despite increased minutes and turnovers each season, and that Cuttino's own FG% is right on par with that of the team, but you might want to consider also the reverse: that perhaps the Rockets team FG% would be a touch higher if they had a shooting guard who could make the pass.

You've also been linking passing and turnovers (see above). Anyway, with the number of injuries to hit the Rockets, Mobley is forced to take riskier plays, since he's often been the only creator on the floor. This causes more turnovers. You can choose to think of Cuttino's assist/TO ratio as reflective on the team FG% (and it is, but the impact is minimal), but it's much more reflective upon the point guard with the worst assist/TO ratio in the league.

'Mobley is "Ben Wallace" compared to Francis defensively' was funny enough, but in the same breath we put Mobley on Kobe's plane defensively because they had the same steal numbers? Un-frickin-real. Francis averages more steals per game in his career than Mobley has had in his best ever season. Also, being a good defensive guard isn't reflected solely in the steal column. Kobe can lock down an opponent, and that doesn't necessarily show up in the box score. Mobley can not.

Whoa... what? You're putting words in my mouth. I said in one of the only statistical defensive fields, Mobley was equivalent to Kobe. I never, ever said that Mobley's overall defense was in the neighborhood of Kobe Bryant. Part of the reason I posted those numbers was to show how difficult it can be to tell overall defense through statistics. I never said that Mobley was even near Kobe's plane defensively. I'm not sure where you got that from.

The 6 highest individual point games against the Rockets last year were all by guards. Iverson (58), Jalen Rose (44), Vince Carter (43), Tracy McGrady (39), Paul Pierce (38), Jason Williams (38) ... this is indicative of the lackluster defense both Mobley and Francis bring each night (even though these two did not guard these players every instant). If both of those players became lockdown defenders, the Rockets would be in a much, much better situation right now.

Agreed. But, the Rockets defensive philosophy has always been to double team down low, and give very little help to the perimeter defenders. Rudy started doing this when we had great perimeter defense in the championship days, and it's something he needs to change. I haven't seen a significant change yet. I'm not claiming that either one of them is a good defender. But, I've seen strides from both (mostly Mobley), and right now Mobley looks like an average defender to me. Not good, and not close to lockdown, but average. Francis is improving, though not at as quick a rate. However, some of your better defenders in the NBA would also be burned for those points if they lacked a center inside and had the help defense the Rockets do. Part of our problem in defending perimeter players comes from Rudy's lack of teaching good help defense (or maybe the players refusal to do it). It's not all on the players.

If the game of basketball was nothing but offense, I might see the points that Cuttino Mobley is the superstar 'The Cat' is making him out to be, but unfortunately that's not the case.

You're putting words into my mouth again. I've said Mobley is a good player, but I've never said he was a superstar. I've simply compared him to players like Michael Finley and Allan Houston, and few consider them superstars, if any (besides the Knicks front office )

His 38-game stretch to end last season (where he averaged over 24 points a night, but more importantly hit 46% of his shots) was truly impressive as he was a much more efficient player during that period, and I was impressed he improved as a three-point shooter overall.

Also, remember that many of Mobley's games before that stretch came when he was playing under 100% with the ankle injury. That stretch last season started to begin when Mobley finally became 100% healthy again, and thus it is more indicative of the strides he's made than the games before then.

 

Myth #2... All that statics tell me is that the guy can get to the foul line an awful lot (he's aggresive alright, maybe 'he got that from his mama')and that he shoots a bunch of technicals at a very high percentage.

Mobley went to the line 4.2 times per game. Finley went 3.6, Houston 4.4, Allen 36, Wells 3.9. I'm not sure I see the difference.

Myth #3... hmm, which other team in the western conference would Mobley be a starter?

Every team but the Lakers.