ClutchFans Game Thread: Mavericks @ Rockets 10/23/2009 (PRESEASON)

Knote basis it on his love for Lowry...he has been saying the same thing ever sense we acquired him.

DD

 

Keep Lowry.

Trade Brooks.

Draft Wall.

Who's with me?

 

He might be right. Most of us agree that Lowry with a consistent jumper and 3 pointer would equal starter.

 

However it is not right to issue an ultimatum. Both can stay.

 

Ummmmmmmmmmm, nice stats. But I don't see the practicality of it applying to Lowry.

For the 3 point shot to be an efficient part of Lowry's game, especially in Lowry's case where he collects so many fouls and free throws by going to the rim, Lowry is going to have to develop into a 40%+ 3 point shooter and then only shoot the shot in bailout situations where the clock is running down and the ball is thrown to him with less than 2 seconds on the shot clock, and even then I am sure teams would prefer that he take the bomb out there instead of driving and creating contact.

When Lowry drives and creates contact, he gets the freebies which he is going to hit at around 80%, he gets the opponent in the bonus, which leads to more FTs for his team, and he gets the opponent in foul trouble, gets the opponent's bench in the game and gets the opponent tentative. He does so much more damage to the opponent by the fouls that he creates.

My fear with Lowry is that the officials quit giving him all those calls. If that happens, his effectiveness goes in the dumper. I don't see him ever developing into a consistent 40% 3 point shooter because of his body type, and the way he plays the game. He would have to change into a different type player, a player that pauses and hesitates and loses some of his quickness/tenacious combination advantage. And that would turn him into another pedestrian backup point guard.

This is one of the reasons that I think we should consider trading Lowry if we can get an upgrade for a superstar at another position or a superstar like CP3 at the point. Heck, I would offer Lowry up for Ramon Sessions as I am convinced that Sessions is the superior playmaker and a player like Sessions with his body type has more of an opportunity to turn himself into an effective shooter than the bowling ball Lowry body type. Lowry is coming into his 4th season. From what I have seen of his three point shot, it has not improved. His mechanics, smoothness, and base are all still distorted. And he has had multiple season to address it somewhat. I don't see him being any better from three this season than the rest of his career after watching him shoot in preseason and watching his mechanics in pregame warmups. It's still the same old short, quick release, flopping the ball up and .......hoping for a hit. And it is probably best since our opponents would be overjoyed to see Lowry chucking up threes, even if he hit 40% of them, over driving right into the teeth of their defense and getting all their guys in foul trouble and getting us in the bonus.

With McGrady out, Lowry really is our best playmaker. That is why when we run out Lowry/Brooks together, we are best served to let Brooks spot up and let Lowry penetrate. And that is precisely why the McGrady/Brooks backcourt is and will continue to be more productive than a Lowry/McGrady backcourt...............unless McGrady decides to run the high post and let Lowry handle and create and get McGrady the ball from 17 feet where he can hit at an alarming rate or attack for the finish.......that is if McGrady can come back in a condition to finish. When you play with Lowry, you have to have the scoring mentality, you've got to want to shoot it and take the shots that Lowry gives you. You've got to let him make the plays. Lowry is best served surrounded by great shooters than can fly up and down the floor and spread the floor and bang down the three point bombs that they get off his penetration. You put Lowry on the floor with guys that can't shoot effectively and/or can't race down the floor and finish off his fast break, you put in guys that have to have the ball and dribble to create their own shots, and the offense bogs down.

 

Does DD stand for Deep Denial now?

Lowry is much, much better than Brooks. It isn't even close.

I'm interested to see how much Brooks improves this year, if at all. I've seen small glimpses of good decision-making during the preseason but it's been mixed in with too many WTF? moments like last year. He also doesn't seem to be working hard enough out there. Maybe that's somewhat unfair because most players look lazy compared to Lowry, who seems to be able to consistently outwork almost every player on the court.

My sense at this point is that Brooks will ultimately end up as a 10-15 mpg scoring point off the bench. He could end up being really good at it though. I do believe he has some clutch in him and will probably hit several more big shots over the course of his career.

 

I thought this was a great post. I strongly agree with the last paragraph.

 

Sure. I looked at all guards over the last 10 season who got at least 1800 minutes and shot at least 50 3-pointers over their 2nd and 3rd seasons, and also over their 4th and 5th seasons. I selected the bottom 50 from that group in 3P% for their 2nd and 3rd years, and then compared their 3-point shooting to what they did over the next 2 seasons.

Here's a summary of the results (3P and 3PA are per 36 minute rates):

                            year2,3               year,4,5          
           #players    3pm    3pa    3p%     3pm    3pa    3p%    3p%_diff
20-25%         3       0.22   1.02  21.3%    0.43   1.58  27.0%     +5.6%
25-30%        10       0.67   2.34  28.7%    0.87   2.75  31.7%     +3.0%
30-35%        21       0.98   3.02  32.4%    1.16   3.26  35.4%     +3.1%


Here's the players who shot under 30% over their 2nd, 3rd seasons, in order of improvement in their 4th, 5th years:

                           2nd,3rd year            4th,5th year
     player            3P     3PA    3P%       3P     3PA    3P%      3P%_diff
1    Earl Watson       0.68   2.34   28.9%     1.92   5.16   37.2%    +8.3%
2    Dion Glover       0.67   2.37   28.5%     1.66   4.78   34.7%    +6.2%
3    Dwyane Wade       0.16   0.74   21.5%     0.26   0.96   27.6%    +6.1%
4    Larry Hughes      0.37   1.73   21.5%     0.41   1.48   27.3%    +5.8%
5    Marquis Daniels   0.12   0.61   20.4%     0.37   1.45   25.8%    +5.4%
6    Kobe Bryant       0.51   1.92   26.7%     2.03   6.53   31.1%    +4.4%
7    Devin Harris      0.20   0.76   26.8%     1.29   4.15   31.0%    +4.2%
8    Ron Mercer        0.18   0.71   25.6%     0.29   0.99   29.6%    +4.0%
9    Allen Iverson     1.05   3.60   29.1%     3.38   10.26  33.0%    +3.8%
10   Jason Williams    1.73   5.82   29.8%     1.92   5.95   32.4%    +2.6%
11   Ronald Murray     1.13   4.02   28.1%     0.76   2.78   27.2%    -0.9%
12   Richard Hamilton  0.43   1.43   29.8%     0.38   1.43   26.7%    -3.0%
13   Andre Miller      0.24   0.93   25.8%     0.21   1.06   20.2%    -5.6%


I think this is pretty strong evidence that young players who shoot poorly will typically improve. Earl Watson is a particularly intriguing comparable.

One thing about Lowry is that he's very good at getting to the basket and drawing fouls. Compared to the players listed above, that might make him less focused on his improving his outside shot.

Edit: Actually, taking a look at Earl Watson, not the best comparable. He shot the 3-pointer pretty well in his 2nd year, and happened to dip in this 3rd year. That's the problem with combining stats from multiple seasons, I guess.

 

IIRC, Kidd didn't really improve until he was in his 30's. What is interesting, unlike a lot of young guys who can't shoot, is that Lowry's form seems fine. Watching him, I almost get the sense that its simply an issue of mindset - he seems to simply desire the more efficient/high percentage option (driving/passing) and thus passes up the shot. Of course, this overlooks the fact that this course of action hurts spacing in taking away one potential threat.

Durvasa:

Interesting stuff, thanks.

 

A couple of possible benefits to Brooks starting are that it could increase his trade value while leading to less wins.

Yes, less wins is a bad thing unless you consider this year to be a throwaway (which I know many of you do not believe). The more games we lose, the higher we likely pick in the 2010 draft.

But there is the chance that Brooks actually decreases his trade value if he plays craptastically. Unfortunately, this is a legitimate possibility.

 

Because we will not have the money...

 

Dance all you want DD, this makes no sense.

It is actually quite the opposite.

I do agree however, that Aaron Brooks might be a better fit for a less talented team like ours is now. With Stacy and Yao back, and maybe that third option, I feel that Lowry is the better PG with the higher potential.

I don't think that Aaron Brooks has adequate court vision to be a starting PG, unless he had a 2-guard to make up for that. He would be perfect in Miami.

 

Do you think we will have Brooks and Lowry next year?

 

Since when are you the advisor of Les how to spend his money?

 

Not once we draft John Wall......

John Wall would start making eithr Brooks or Lowry obsolete...

b/t Brooks and Lowry, I would trade Brooks, i think if it came down to it....
Just b/c he could land us a bigger name than Lowry could...

-rocketblaze

 

new to me

 

In reality, Brooks needs at least a couple of crutches to pass as a starter. Not only does he need a playmaking wing like you said but he also needs either a strong defense behind him or a coach that doesn't give a crap about defense.

When you are talking about the need for all these crutches, it's the equivalent of saying Brooks is not a starting-caliber player.

I'm not even sure that Brooks will increase his stock by starting this season. There is a real possibility that his already-low efficiency worsens and that Lowry yanks the starting job away from him within the first few weeks. In other words, as many alluded to over the summer, Brooks' trade value may have been at its peak after the playoffs.

Morey tried to get some deals done over the summer but nothing materialized. I wonder what Morey's intentions were when drafting Brooks. I used to think Adelman had a lot to do with that pick but after talking to Feigen, that is apparently almost entirely a myth: http://blogs.chron.com/nba/2009/09/summers_gone_and_the_time_is_r.html

Here's the comment and the response:

Jonathan,

I've heard that Adelman had a lot to do with the Brooks draft pick. I've heard that he watched him play at Oregon and liked his game and urged Morey to pick him. Is this fact or fiction?

Thanks, in advance.

(It is a drastic exaggeration. Adelman was well aware of Brooks and had a favorable impression, but he was very much selected through the customary evaluations, incluuding an especially impressive showing in the predraft camp in Orlando. -- Jonathan)

 

That's interesting. Good post BB.

I am scared of the "timeshare" situation, for the future. I think the competition can sometimes hinder a young PG's development. With Lowry pushing Mike Conley, the guy was awful on the court and often outplayed by Kyle. He was fantastic (15-5-5) in the second half of last season when Lowry was traded. Eventually, we need to choose a lead guard, or someone needs to step in and take the spot.

 

This reminds me of Calderon vs. Ford.

One of them probably needs to go. I think neither Brooks nor Lowry is a super pg. Lowry is probably slightly better than Brooks right now. But, I prefer the rockets to draft or trade an elite pg. Especially, if the rockets want to keep both defensive wings (Ariza and Battier) in future, they need a great playmaking pg.

 

Very good point. I say we just throw out positions and try to get the best young talent we can for Tracy. I don't know how Pat Riley would feel about this, but I think Beasley could be had if it meant giving the Heat a shot to win next year. BTW, Beasley had a better "per 36" than Durant did his rookie year. 48% from the field, 40% from 3, while playing the wrong position most of the time.

Incoming:
Michael Beasley
Jermaine O'Neal

Outgoing:
Tracy McGrady
Aaron Brooks
Luis Scola

Miami starting 5.
1. Aaron Brooks
2. Dwayne Wade
3. Tracy McGrady
4. Udonis Haslem
5. Luis Scola

I think this team can compete with anyone for a title if they are healthy...
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The Rockets would still have a ton of cap room next year with JO's expiring contract, and they would have a viable all-star talent in Beasley.

Beasley would mix in well with a young core of Ariza, Budinger and Lowry to go with Yao and Shane. We would have plenty of money to sign a solid player in free agency as well.

Kyle Lowry?
Joe Johnson?
Trevor Ariza
Michale Beasley
Yao Ming

(Sorry guys, I was bored)