We Should Have Tanked

It doesn't look like our draft situation is too bad. It actually seems like we'll get a fairly desireable player: either a top-shelf SF or a second-shelf PF (maybe a C). But, I can't help feeling like we screwed ourselves by not tanking. Consider:

1) We are in greater need of a PF than a SF. There are some great PFs in this draft but none of those will fall far enough for us to get them. Oyedeji, Moiso, and E. Thomas all look like possible PF picks (in my mind), but they won't become the superstar PF I want and will be a middling improvement over K. Thomas at best.

2) Taking a SF (Miller, Miles, D. Johnson -- if he can play SF) would probably yield us better talent for our pick than taking a PF would. However, it will cause a considerable minute crunch at the swing positions. As Popeye has pointed out, taking a SF will take time from others. Mobley, Anderson, Williams, or possibly Norris, I'd think. The problem could be averted (or at least not aggravated) if Williams is traded and the SF pick takes his minutes (Also, if Miles is taken, he might get so few minutes in the beginning that we won't have a problem). Some would be very happy. However, (a) we'd need to find a trade, (b) I don't know how firm his trade value is after his last 20 games, (c) he's one of only 4 (possibly 3) veterans we have, (d) the Wizard may well kick ass next year. In short, I'd rather keep our swing guys just as they are and not draft a SF.

3) We need another star to team with Francis. It doesn't matter what his position is I suppose, though I'd prefer a PF. I see two good ways to get this star: the draft or by trade. We've already half mucked up the draft by not tanking. We're at a disadvantage now at 9. We can hope for a surprise from Miller or Miles or whatever, but I'd prefer taking my chances with Martin, Fizer or Swift. As for trades, see #4:

4) We are tapped out when it comes to trades. When Orlando decided to rebuild, they traded many of their veterans for players and picks with potential. It'd be nice to be able to do the same with the left over pieces from our pre-Francis days, but we have essentially nothing left. Most of our players won't be traded because we don't want to lose them (like Francis), there is no market for them (Gray), they are underpaid and can't yield what they are worth in trade (Anderson), or we have no trade-leverage with them (Mobley). Further complicating things are guys that can't be traded for the reputation of the franchise: Olajuwon and Anderson. I'd say the players likely to be center-pieces of trade negotiations are Cato, Drew, Thomas, possibly Williams. These guys are going to yield similar talent back. Drew or Thomas may give us a sixth man, Williams may get us a starter. I don't think anyone is going to take all of them in return for a star (the Rockets did it for Pippen, but how often will that happen?) Only Cato is likely to get us anything that will really put this team ahead in its plans. And getting value for him with his contract, his BYC status, and his showing last season -- and yet also his athleticism and potential -- will be very difficult, IMO (and then who'd play C?). How can we get a star when we're giving up talent like that? Except for the $4.4 million trade exception, I think the trade front looks grim.

5) The synthesis way to get a star is to trade up in the draft. I think we'd have to pay heavily to get into the top 5, and again, the only tradeable commodity we have to get us there is Cato, who again will be hard to trade. I don't think we'll make it. We wouldn't have had to if we had tanked.
(a) The other possibility is to trade our "Trade Coupon." However, the Clippers, Bulls and Magic can't use it, being under the cap, though it would give them more space if both Hill and Duncan wanted to play for one of them (fat chance). Also, since the pick has no trade value, I doubt any of the top 5 would want to include it in a trade for the Coupon.

In sum, I think things look grim as they stand now. We are hit-or-miss at getting a star from the draft. If we do get one there, it'll screw up our backcourt and could possibly knock out Mobley. The only player we can trade this off-season to really improve the club is Cato and it is questionable whether we want to move him and whether we CAN move him. Plus, we won't be bad enough next year to really get anyone good in the draft. The only silver lining is the Trade Coupon and -- because it is a new rule -- we can't be too sure about what it is really worth.

So was all this worth winning some late season games? We were in 6th place once -- where some mock drafts have Fizer -- before we finished strong. At the very least, we'd be certain to get Miles at 6.

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