GOP Failure: Only 20% of Americans now see themselves as Republicans

Actually this is very good for the country. Most of the major advances made in the country have made with Democrats firmly in power. The New Deal. Social Security, The growth of labor unions which spread the weatlh around to tens of millions of Americans, the Civil Rights Acts, Medicare, Medicaid.

The country has been in grid lock for 30 years; hence little progress. We don't have bullet trains, we are falling behind in solar energy and conservation. Our public education is declining as we are short of tax dollars as the GOP goes for more and more war, the only major government program they believe in and tax breaks so that a few a few speculate on fine wines, art, coastal real estate and stocks.

There is arguably a role for the nay sayers and skeptics, i.e. the GOP to do some tinkering with the advances once they are made, but the so called "balance" truism you mention is just grid lock of an unproductive type.

 

I think it's fairly easy - they need to have a policy agenda. For example, either have a health care plan or say you think the system works. Their whole "we don't have an actual plan, but are for health care reform, but will oppose anything Democrats propose" doesn't work.

All the polls right now show the GOP making pretty significant gains in the 2010 midterms, so they keep going down the dumb path. I think they are completely wrong. Once health care reform passes and the economy improves in 2010, while the GOP just opposed everything in the process, Dems are going to be as popular as ever.

And I agree in theory - the country's at it's best with two healthy parties. But if the opposition party is just a bunch of idiots with no policy agenda, they serve no purpose anyway.

 

Unfortunately many of them now call themselves Libertarian but still think like Republicans. This means free reign for the socialists.

 

*tin-hat firmly placed on head...

I have given up on polls. They always seem to be partisan, swayed, sketchy or sometimes outright rubbish.

anyway, carry on.

 

I"ll have to bookmark this thread for after the 2010 elections.

So "heavily favored" and "most polls says..." will be an equivalent of a complete failure if the republicans pull additional seats and the democrats lose seats?

 

I doubt people will stop watching Fox News.

Let say Republican was synonymous with "ignorant douchebag who supported Bush". Would Republicans see themselves as Republicans? 20%?

Independent sounds more uhhh independently minded.

 

No - the incumbent President's party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections, primarily because that party got extra seats in the Presidential election year through coattails. I think there have only been a few exceptions over the past 50+ years.

I think the average is about 15 seats (not sure on this) in House, but much of the polling estimates 20-30 seats just based on national trends (it's impossible to get specifics since the challengers haven't even been nominated yet). 538 - a Dem analytical site - predicts about a 20-25% chance of the GOP takeover of the House based on the polling and the enthusiasm gaps:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/not-so-bad-case-scenario.html

I would predict about 8-12 seat shift and no more than 2-3 in the Senate. It would be hard for the Dems to make any further gains because they pretty much got every possible seat they can gain in the last election with a perfect storm of Obama support and GOP apathy.

 

Unless things take a significant swing toward the Dems, the GOP will make gains in 2010. That's what happens in mid-term elections when one party has both houses of congress and the presidency. While I wouldn't completely rule out a blunting of the current GOP momentum, it is EXTREMELY likely the Dem majority in the House is diminished. The Senate is a much more difficult call. Yes, I know the Dems gained seats in 3 straight elections (04, 06, 08) and that anything can happen, but 2010 won't be a charm.

2012 (not 2010) is when we are likely to see "the boom" lowered on the Republican party again. Their current "surge" and likely success in 2010 will probably encourage their kook element even more. But with Obama running as the incumbent and with the economy probably on much better footing, the kook message will crash in 2012. If Obama is a very strong incumbent, there is nothing the GOP can do to stop another whipping. If they nominate a weak candidate against Obama, it will be a Dem landslide.

To summarize: I said it before today and will repeat: The decline in Obama's approval rating and the rise of GOP momentum this year (and next) will kill them in 2012. It will delay their inevitable adjustment back to being a viable majority party.

 

I noted this in another thread but I would be careful about talking about the Republicans doomed. Remember it wasn't that long ago that people were saying the Democrats were doomed and that the rise of the suburbs would leave the Democrats demographically trapped as an urban party.

A lot can change between now and the 2010 elections which can change the fortunes of both parties.

 

it works fairly well if you you are a fan of the Longhorns.

 

I pretty much agree with you, although I think the numbers will likely be at least 2x what you are estimating. Bush Sr/Clinton of 1992 was the last time we have actually had a fair representation from each party. Every since then, at least one, and usually both parties, have brought poor candidates to the ballot. A strong disdain for the Bush years and the colossal mistake of McCain has given the democrats a huge surge. I think we will see people returning back to their parties come 2010.

But my original post was in rebuttal to Sweet Lou's comment about how he believes the democrats will continue their surge.

 

What percentage of people consider themselves democrats? Most people I know consider themselves independents

 

As much as I believe that this post is heavily tinged with glynch's left-leaning political bias, I have to say that he does have a point. I used to support the GOP years ago because I thought they stood for what was right. The Republican party today to me is just completely disconnected from reality, and I do agree that the so-called political "balance" that everybody likes to advocate is in reality nothing more than paralyzing gridlock. Healthcare currently is a disaster, and political gridlock/entrenched special interests are responsible. Other developed countries are boasting 100+ Mbps broadband to the average home, and here we still pay through our noses to get 6Mbps. Heck, Finland is even talking about making broadband access a civil right.

I just don't get the madness of blind ideology over practical reality. Communism is evil, but that doesn't mean pure, unbridled capitalism isn't evil too. Nobody has just found a bad label for it that stuck, that's all. If after the economic events of the past two years we still haven't figured that out ... we probably never will. There are roles government needs to play beyond just burning up money on defense projects in the name of superiority. The government exists for the people. The GOP today has nothing for me. Nothing.

Well ... I'll stop ranting.

 

Dude, you've gone from Republican to full on commie. Good on ya.

 

33% believe that.

I was watching some commentary last night and they were saying that with independents who lean one way or the other, these numbers are bad but not the worst of the new numbers.

They said what was worse was that only 19% want the Republicans to control congress and the direction of leadership. That includes the independents.

 

glenn beck calls himself a libertarian, and i suspect that most of his listeners believe they are too (or at least 'independent') - nevermind that that beck is simply pushing the neo-con agenda and his positions really are the antithesis of libertarianism. its definitely a tactic - o'reilly does it too - they claim they are 'independent' so that when they attack dems they can pretend they are not being partisan about it. but everything they talk about and stand for is straight out of the republican/neo-con playbook. imo, these poll numbers are a reflection of this - people who fall inline w/ the republican agenda dont want to admit they are republicans - but its all in the name - for all 'intents and purposes' (thanks batman! ), they are.

but after the way republicans have conducted themselves for the last 10 years or so, i do have to give them credit for even having 20%. i wouldnt want to admit to belonging to that embarrassment of a party. and i for one will never vote for another republican as long as i live.