Will Yao be a Difference Maker?

bigboymumu · Jul 3, 2002

I wonder if this guy thinks he wrote a good story. He probably thinks he is original. I know he has been to this site.

ESPN article from Terry Brown

Pass the ball to the bearded lady.

I want to see if Jo-Jo the dog-faced boy can reverse dunk.

The rest of you, not to mention a billion of our closest friends on mainland China ready, willing and able to watch commercials, fill seats and buy jerseys, may have come to gawk at the 7-foot-5 three-point shooting specialist known as Yao Ming, the first foreign player ever taken No. 1 in the NBA draft. But I want to see if anyone in this tent can actually play the game.

Bring in the midgets and the Siamese twins. Make room for the Elephant Man. Just don't get any confetti on me.

"I was never very high on him," said one Western Conference scout. "I would never have taken him with the first pick. But then someone explained to me that there are two ways to look at him: an artistic one and a business one. And this is a financial windfall for the Houston Rockets as far as corporate investors and sponsorships and exposure are concerned."

Jay Williams may score 20 points a game. Caron Butler may grab 10 boards. But let me stomp my feet one more time. I want to know how good Yao Ming is. I want to know if he really deserved to be the No. 1 pick by way of talent. I want to know how we judge players on five-year leashes before having to decide on nine-figure ransoms.

I'm going on news reports, one workout and a few clips. I have a stat sheet in front of me that says Yao averaged 32.4 points per game, 19 rebounds and 2.9 assists. I see his mom and dad clapping on the TV after David Stern announced his name.

Do I bow now or wait until opening night.

The average starting center in the NBA stands 6-foot-11½ inches tall. He scores 9.5 points per game, grabs 7.1 rebounds and blocks 1.3 shots.

Of those 29 centers, I rounded out 10 of them (Shaq, David Robinson, Dikembe Mutombo, Vlade Divac, Marcus Camby, Michael Olowokandi, Antonio Davis, Greg Ostertag, Todd MacCulloch and Joel Przybilla) and found that they averaged 11.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in 24.1 minutes per game during their rookie years.

The last 10 No. 1 picks averaged 16.8 points per game in 33.3 minutes during their rookie seasons.

I want to walk a mile in Yao's shoes but I'm not quite sure if I'm supposed to compare him to Kwame Brown (4.5 ppg, No. 1 in 2001) or Shaquille O'Neal (27.2 ppg, No. 1 in 1992) or someone in the middle like Nazr Mohammed (9.7 ppg), the 29th player picked in the 1998 draft since twice traded.

"I will be shocked if he scores 10 points a game," said the scout. "He's going to get pushed around a lot and draw a lot of fouls while he gets used to the physical play. Offensively, he's not going to get a lot of opportunities and as a rookie, I expect him to play only about 24 minutes a game."

So is he Shawn Bradley, the 7-foot-6 player taken No. 2 in the 1993 draft, who got a whopping contract right out of college and averaged 10.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and three blocks per game in 28.3 minutes his rookie year but fell to 4.1 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 14.3 minutes last season?

Or is he Olowokandi, the 7-footer taken No. 1 in the 1998 draft, who is now looking for a maximum contract extension after averaging 8.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 28.4 minutes per game his rookie year and 11.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 32.1 minutes last season?

"He's huge," says the scout. "He's got strong legs and a nice touch. From a defensive standpoint, he's so tall he'll be an intimidating force in the middle. It will be a challenge to get a shot over him. He may not get a lot of blocks, but he'll influence almost every one. But he's going to be a tough fit in Houston where they are dominated by guard play. He's going to have a hard time getting involved and I don't know how Rudy T is going to adjust."

Last season, the Rockets were dominated by a three-guard rotation that averaged 51.4 of the team's 92.3 points per game. Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Moochie Norris scored 55 percent of the team's points and averaged 6-foot-2½ in stature. Those three guys averaged a thousand shots each last season despite missing a combined 34 games.

Compare that to the Sacramento Kings' guard rotation of Bibby-Christie-Jackson (36.8 of team's 104.6 points for 35 percent) or the Lakers' Bryant-Fisher-Hunter (42.2 of team's 101.3 for 41 percent) or even the Dallas Mavericks' Nash-Finley-Van Exel (51.7 of team's 105.2 for 49 percent).

The Rockets' starting center, Kelvin Cato, averaged 6.6 points, 7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game. And he had to shoot 58 percent to do it in 25.6 minutes per game.

Can Yao duplicate even those numbers?

And why are we even comparing Yao to a guy who was drafted No. 15, traded twice, hasn't started half the games he's played in and averaged 5.7 points and 5 rebounds per game over his career.

"The league is desperate for size," says the scout. "And we're willing to role the dice to find it."

In fact, of the top 50 scores in the league last year, only three of them played center. Only 19 centers made the top 50 in rebounding and 24 of them in blocked shots. Not even half.

Of course, this doesn't count superstars like 7-foot Tim Duncan, who plays power forward, or 6-foot-11 Kevin Garnett, who plays small forward, or the 6-foot-10 Lamar Odom, who could play point guard in a pinch though not nearly as well as the legendary 6-foot-9 Magic Johnson, who played the position in verse.

The league doesn't lack size on the roster as much as it does style in center. The one big man capable of exerting brute force down low is the same guy named Finals MVP the last three years in a row while every other big man joins the power forward picket line.

Sorry, but the Rockets already have three overstuffed forwards on the roster. Yao just drew Daddy. This is ominous opportunity and we can either lower our standards or see how the kid reacts to his first black eye.

Because of his size, draft status and presence of one, and only one, Shaquille O'Neal, the 7-foot-5 Yao is subject to superstar or sideshow consequences.

We can forget all about traditional expectations, even forgive some less than flattering stats next season. But I could care less if one more hot dog or bowl of saimin is sold in Compaq Center. The Rockets were two games away from the playoffs two years ago and just got the No. 1 pick in the draft.

It's postseason or bust.

The fat lady, the one with the beard, just sang.

montgo · Jul 3, 2002

They do not get it...they think we are in a vacuum and that coaches do not adjust their lineups and plays to accomodate certain players. Some of what he said it true. Ming will foul a lot and will occassionally get pushed around, but he plays like a small forward in a lot of ways. I am sorry, but watching Paul Gasol last year made me think that Ming has the same offensive skills as Gasol right now...he is only 5 inches taller than Gasol. But, coming out of Europe, Gasol averaged 13 points per and many of his fellow 7 foot euro stars are playing against Ming right now in China and Ming is schooling them.

The high post offense Rudy speaks of will alleviate many of the issues some are concerned about. Ming will flat out shoot over many of the people he listed in the article....can Bradly, Olwakandi, Antonio Davis, Vlade, Dikembe, Nazr, Camby and others knock down Js like this kid..not....

DaDakota · Jul 3, 2002

All these guys are going to be eating their words one day. It seems that people do not want to even give him a chance.

He will SHOCK the world.

DaDakota

montgo · Jul 3, 2002

he had 10 touches in the game with Italy. he was 10/12 and 6/6 from the free throw....12 scoring touches is easy........ I bet you he averages 60% from the field in the NBA..play him 24 minutes and get him 10 touches and he averages 12 points, plus a couple of free throws......I'd say 14 points is attainable for him in the rookie year......reminder: 7 points average above our current center and how many games would we have won last year having this extra average>

Deckard · Jul 3, 2002

This guy is so full of ****. To think he gets paid to write what should be in the National Enquirer or some other supermarket rag.

Tb-Cain · Jul 3, 2002

It will be difficult for Yao to get any credit that he might deserve for the Rocket's success this upcoming season.

If the Rockets win, the detractors will say: <I>"Look, he was drafted into a team that BARELY missed the playoffs two years ago and was riddled by injuries last year. This was a good team before Yao. They probably would have made the playoffs anyway with just the #15 pick."</I>

They can go on to say...

<I>
If you're starting 4 last year (KT) is now your 3rd-string PF, then things are looking pretty good.

If you're starting 3 last year (Tmo) is now your 3rd-string SF, then things are looking pretty good.
</I>

Yao will not get any credit this year until he puts up above average numbers.

WinkFan · Jul 3, 2002

Terry Brown=Fran Blinebury?

Dennis2112 · Jul 3, 2002

Originally posted by bigboymumu

"I was never very high on him," said one Western Conference scout. "I would never have taken him with the first pick. But then someone explained to me that there are two ways to look at him: an artistic one and a business one. And this is a financial windfall for the Houston Rockets as far as corporate investors and sponsorships and exposure are concerned."

"I will be shocked if he scores 10 points a game," said the scout. "He's going to get pushed around a lot and draw a lot of fouls while he gets used to the physical play. Offensively, he's not going to get a lot of opportunities and as a rookie, I expect him to play only about 24 minutes a game."

[/i]
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I find it very interesting that everytime a negative word is spoken about Ming, it is always from an unamed scout or GM. Why won't these scouts and GMs ever want to give their names if they truly believe what their saying?
Or is it that the reporters saying this crap are making this stuff up and justifing their position with bogus quotes from unknown scouts and GMs.

Give the guy a chance before you hang him from the highest tree...sheesh

Deuce · Jul 3, 2002

I find it interesting that Terry Brown does not have a "Feedback" email link like Chad Ford does.

In any event, you can write to ESPN Insider at insiderwriteback@espn.go.com
Perhaps in the subject line put "Terry Brown" etc and then you can let Insider know your thoughts. I am sure they can pass along the emails to Mr. Brown

Jeff, you should send them YOUR recent article on Yao Ming!

Chris

Stylez · Jul 3, 2002

You guys are right. We are gonna have to put up with this kind of crap all season. When the first person dunks on him, eveyone will be screaming that his career is over, even though EVERY big man in the league has been dunked on. Rudy knows what he's doing, and Carrol helped The Dream so I'm not worried about it. In a couple of years, all the haters will be eating their words.

MysticRyder · Jul 3, 2002

There is one thing about haters of a certain player. No matter what he does they will not admit they are wrong and will find some flaw to pick on. Lets say Ming averages 10 points 10 rebounds and 4 blocks a game, the hater will say how many steals did he get and how mant assists and on and on.
In conclusion the hater will remain a hater no matter how good the player he hates does.

rezdawg · Jul 3, 2002

Originally posted by montgo
he had 10 touches in the game with Italy. he was 10/12 and 6/6 from the free throw....12 scoring touches is easy........ I bet you he averages 60% from the field in the NBA..play him 24 minutes and get him 10 touches and he averages 12 points, plus a couple of free throws......I'd say 14 points is attainable for him in the rookie year......reminder: 7 points average above our current center and how many games would we have won last year having this extra average>
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Cato still shot about 60% from the field.
Anyways, thats not my point.

My point is that many of you think that Ming will dominate from the start. He will not. He has a huge adjustment to make. It will take him at least a year before he gets used to the physical nature of the NBA. His body just isnt ready for the punishment he will be getting. The NBA game is completely different than the CBA game. I think Ming will get better every year, but dont expect him to do much is first year. If you raise your expectations, the chances of disappointment will also increase. Lets just hope he improves every year, then we can talk championship in about 4 years.

ron413 · Jul 3, 2002

http://dynamic.espn.go.com/espn/chat/chatESPN?event_id=2012#bottom

Chat with David Aldridge of ESPN:

Ken (Houston): David, There's been a lot of speculation around here about how much of an impact Yao will have on the Rockets' success next year. Mainly, I'm interested in hearing how much playing time you think Rudy T will give him in his first year? Granted, I know it's probably too early to tell, but I'd be interested in your opinion regardless! Thanks and GO ROCKETS!!!

David Aldridge: They're going to throw him in there. There's no point to bringing him along slowly. His learning curve is steep enough. I suspect Yao will get as many minutes as he can handle.

mfgarza · Jul 3, 2002

I can't believe that scout said that he'd be shocked if he averaged 10 points. Cato ,who has no game,averaged 6.6 basically all on good passes from the guards. If Cato didn't have butter fingers he could have easily averaged at least 10 points. It seemed like every game, he fumbled away a good 2-3 baskets cuz he couldn't catch the damn ball. Ming who has great hands should easily average 10 points just on great feeds from the guards. Throw in the fact that he can shoot and has more game, there's no reason why he shouldn't average at least 14 points once he's getting regular minutes.

tozai · Jul 3, 2002

I don't know if Yao will be a difference maker next season. I do know that if everyone is healthy, along with addition of Nachbar alone we can be a playoff team anyways. We'll be seeing Yao articles throughout the summer about him being a bust, but our first true sign will be the World Championships in Indiana. Until then, it's only speculation. Of course he isn't going to come in and dominate, how many rookies do? I think he's better than the centers we have right now though and I think comparing him to Bradley is a complete joke. Even so, look at Bradley's rookie numbers. 10 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 blks. If Yao gets 30 minutes per a game, I'd think he'd be able to produce at least that...

Uprising · Jul 3, 2002

That had to be one of the worst articles i have ever read in a long time. I couldnt even finish it. I got lost... Un named scouts, whatever. Ming will prove them wrong.

Rocket River · Jul 3, 2002

The Rockets will shock the world.

As I look over this team and hearing the things i hear

C- Cato
PF - KT/Taylor
SF - Rice
SG - Cuttino
PG - Francis

THAT IS NOT A BAD STARTING 5 AT ALL!!
Weakness - Center

Bench
C- Ming
PF - KT/Griffen
Sf - Nachbar/Tmo
SG - Torres
PG - Moochie

again .. NOT BAD AT ALL.
Weakest link - Shooting guard?

I think this is a 50~55 win team . .. depends on the start of the seaosn

If they can start off about 25 winds before the allstar break
I'm positive they will win 50

They would be what 25 - 16

Rocket River

Primetime · Jul 3, 2002

let them fools talk all they want. at 7'5" ming will have an impact just by clogging up the lane.....

its getting annoying hearing all the dogging of foreign players in favor of all the underclassman coming out. tell me this: amare stoudemire.... what kind of competition was he going up against the last 4 years???

one more thing: cato's 60% shooting.... can you say, "alleyoop from francis to cato"? i don't recall many turnarounds or jump hooks finding the bucket from #13. whatever.

Dennis2112 · Jul 3, 2002

Originally posted by mfgarza
I can't believe that scout said that he'd be shocked if he averaged 10 points. Cato ,who has no game,averaged 6.6 basically all on good passes from the guards. If Cato didn't have butter fingers he could have easily averaged at least 10 points. It seemed like every game, he fumbled away a good 2-3 baskets cuz he couldn't catch the damn ball. Ming who has great hands should easily average 10 points just on great feeds from the guards. Throw in the fact that he can shoot and has more game, there's no reason why he shouldn't average at least 14 points once he's getting regular minutes.
Click to expand...

I saw that too. The writer is complaining that all Ming will be able to do in score with putbacks and such. That is what a center is supposed to do...right? Cato certainly has not figured it out yet. With Ming scoring 10+ ppg, that is a whole lot better than what we were getting from the center spot currently. And , heaven forbid, Ming average 9-10 bpg, man we could actually win some games.

KingCheetah · Jul 3, 2002

The rest of you, not to mention a billion of our closest friends on mainland China ready, willing and able to watch commercials, fill seats and buy jerseys, may have come to gawk at the 7-foot-5 three-point shooting specialist known as Yao Ming, the first foreign player ever taken No. 1 in the NBA draft. But I want to see if anyone in this tent can actually play the game.
Click to expand...

Is Ming/Basketball popular in China? One report comes out like this and another says he is hardly know outside of Shanghai. He's got to be fairly popular in China especially after his #1 NBA selection but is he known as a superstar over there or just known?

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