[BP 09/10] Houston Rockets Team Preview

That was a nice read. Some parts baffled me like leading the league in defensive rating.

 

Wow, 52 projected wins. That's very interesting and then they think if Tracy is put into the equation those wins will come down?

I don't think I agree with Ariza becoming a main weapon. I think everyone became too excited with Ariza finally showing off the skills he has never possessed in his career. Apparently they expect him to shoulder the load. This article speaks highly of the Rockets but Ariza becoming an All-Star talent and Rockets winning 52 wins without Yao and Mcgrady according to that article just seems extremely far-fetched.

Yes T-mac is a question mark, but I highly doubt he would mess up anything. More than likely with our tough schedule in November, we'd be lucky to be above .450 record. I doubt Tracy could hurt us anymore unless he is at the same level he was last year.

 

Great article. Thanks for posting.

Two Quotes of Interest -

"McGrady could mess all of this up by coming back, of course, and his availability--let alone his effectiveness--is very much a question mark."

"Next summer, McGrady finally comes off the books, and by then Houston should know a lot more about Yao’s prognosis."

I want McGrady to come back strong & gel w/this team - that doesn't mean that it's going to happen. But there is a certain tone in those lines and in the article, an air of assumption, that seems so confident in it's statements, it makes you wonder...

 

Maybe you missed this in one of the feature boxes -

“'We brought him in mostly for his defense, but we do think he can expand his offensive game as well. Coach Adelman feels good about his (fit) in his offense. We didn’t bring Trevor in to be a big offensive force for us.'

Daryl Morey, on Trevor Ariza carrying more of an offensive load."

 

I believe he is so confident because he is looking at stats and he has a lot of faith in those stats. I mean how the hell do we go to a projected 52 wins without T-mac to winning less with him on the team. I guess it could be possible, but the probability of that happening is slim considering our strength of schedule and the inexperience of this group of guys. There are a lot of things to learn throughout the season and these stats do not take into account the amount of mistakes that will be made early on that will cause the Rockets to lose. Lets face, I doubt this group of guys will be able to string 6 or 7 game winning streaks.

He speaks with a lot of confidence but there are a lot of flaws in the projected record that are not taken into account.

 

Well, ElPigto -
You bring up a lot of interesting points...but I was trying to call attention to the McGrady references that assume he'll not be back next year and infer that he could sink the ship upon his return this year...

Does anybody else see that in the article?

 

There trying to sell tickets.

 

What I didn't buy was the rationale behind the projection. It's almost like there is a disconnect between the statistical and objective analysis in the essay, as if they were written by different people. The projection of 52 wins was predicated upon the Rockets being in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency while leading in defensive efficiency with their glaring hole at center, both of which in my opinion are quite unlikely to happen. Equally unlikely in my mind is the idea of a team ranked 21st in offensive efficiency getting 52 wins on the heels of defense alone. Especially since this same team actually has a strong precedent for that scenario: the disastrous 2005-06 campaign.

As if that sequence of contradictions wasn't bad enough, he then goes on to talk about how the potential addition of McGrady to the mix could completely screw up the projection. Unless you're assuming that the Rockets will get back the same one-legged McGrady they had last year, any realistic person knows that even at less-than-full capacity, McGrady is a significant upgrade over anyone else on this roster and it isn't even close. And the idea of getting back the same one-legged McGrady is even more ridiculous than the idea of this center-less team leading the league in defensive efficiency.

I wish I could say that I like the analysis. I don't. It's holey, disjointed, contradictory and doesn't make sense. It's a nice read, but that 52-win projection is complete hogwash. Not Basketball Prospectus's finest work by a long shot.

 

Let’s try not to overlook the fact that they offer two different projections / rating systems for the season.

SCHOENE, 37-45
If you are asking "What is SCHOENE?"
Introducing SCHOENE

NBAPET, 52-30
A simple explanation about NBAPET
http://www.doolittlebrothers.com/?p=154

If you average the projected wins you get 44.5; are 44 or 45 wins enough to break the Rockets into the playoff picture this season? (In the western conference, not likely.)

They do lean heavy on Ariza a bit in the article, but they do mention Scola and Brooks as our two main offensive weapons. As far as Ariza being an all star, I would think Scola has a better shot, but either way it is a fan based voting scheme.

 

Why try so hard for an 8th seed and then exit round 1 of the playoffs? We can instead hope for a good lottery pick.

 

Here is the article reformatted by hand for the BBS -

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If the Rockets were a real estate property, now would be the time to buy. Such are the consequences of low, low expectations.
How are the Rockets going to replace injured stars Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady?

That seems to be the storyline in Houston this season. Never mind the fact that in the playoffs last season, the Rockets pushed the eventual-champion Lakers to a seventh game in the Western Conference semifinals without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, having already beaten Portland for the team’s first playoff series win since 1997 before Yao went down.

Despite that postseason success, the forecasts for 2009-10 have generally been dire. Houston has won 50 or more games in four out of the last five seasons. The exception was 2005-06, when the Rockets limped to a 34-48 record under Jeff Van Gundy. That season, Yao and McGrady combined to miss 60 games. The only Rocket to start more than 63 games was Juwan Howard. So you can understand why these doubters are pessimistic about the Rockets sans their stars.

Are fans and analysts missing something? According to SCHOENE, they are right on the money. SCHOENE sees Houston slipping to 37-45, finishing 19th in Offensive Rating and 18th at the defensive end. However, the other system we use at Basketball Prospectus, NBAPET, tells an entirely different story. NBAPET sees the Rockets going 52-30 and capturing the fourth seed in the West. This more optimistic forecast has Houston finishing 21st in OffensiveOffensive Rating, but still succeeding by leading the league in Defensive Rating.

Now, we point these things out not to pit our systems against each other, but to underscore how interesting this year’s Rockets are going to be. McGrady could mess all of this up by coming back, of course, and his availability--let alone his effectiveness--is very much a question mark.

However, what we know and expect right now is that the Rockets will play the bulk of this season with $38.8 million worth of star power watching from the sidelines. What is left is a collection of role players. Ordinarily, that would be a prescription for disaster. However, the Rockets don’t just have role players. They have a roster full of really good role players.

That description starts with point guard Aaron Brooks, who emerged as the offense’s focal point when the Rockets were short-handed during the postseason. Brooks is a blur with the ball in his hands, possessing the ability to break down almost any defense with dribble penetration. Unlike many players of his ilk, however, Brooks also is a lethal outside shooter. His game has its rough edges and, in the new pecking order, he’s going to have to become a better playmaker. That will be especially crucial if the Rockets go with a quicker pace, which has been suggested.

He’ll be flanked by super-athletic wingman Trevor Ariza, who was signed away from the Lakers on the open market in a de facto swap for Ron Artest. Artest’s depar-ture has been further fuel for those predicting gloom and doom in Houston. In fact, the Rockets should come out quite nicely in this exchange. Ariza has been one of the NBA’s most underrated players for most of his career. That holds true not just for the fans and media, but also for his coaches. Despite his obvious natural ability and versatility on both ends of the floor, Ariza will be playing for his fourth team in six NBA seasons.

In L.A., Ariza was utilized as a perimeter stopper, a role which he filled quite well. On offense, he was used primarily as a spot-up shooter. Over a quarter of Ariza’s shot attempts came from behind the arc last season, a huge jump over his established tendencies. He hit just under 32 percent on treys, so despite hot shooting in the playoffs, clearly the Lakers were not getting the most out of his talent. In Houston, Ariza can still work on that outside shot, but he will have much more freedom to attack the basket, create offense for himself and teammates and draw fouls.

Given the Rockets’ need for scoring and likely style of play, Ariza should emerge as an All-Star candidate this season. Further, he’s a better defender than Artest at this point in their respective careers. Artest is obviously
stronger and more physical, but he can only dream of Ariza’s lateral movement.

Last season, the Rockets featured one of the best perimeter defenses in the league thanks to the combined talents of Artest and stopper extraordinaire Shane Battier. This season, the perimeter ‘D’ should be even better.

One of the reasons that SCHOENE is pessimistic about the Rockets’ defensive outlook is because of a dearth of shot-blocking on the team. That is a void created by Yao’s absence and Dikembe Mutombo’s retirement. The recent signing of Pops Mensah-Bonsu does give the Rockets a shot-blocking presence, but let’s face it, if Houston has to resort to giving Pops heavy minutes to get the occasional swat, then the Rockets really are in trouble.

What will be worth noting about the Rockets’ defense this season is to what degree, if any, Yao’s and Mutombo’s presence inflated the individual defensive metrics of the players around them. Is this one of the league’s best defensive teams?

Whether this is true will determine the course of the Rockets’ season. That said, there are some serious questions that have to be answered on the offensive end. Just little things like, “Where is the offense going to come from?” As interesting as the Rockets are on defense, they will be exponentially more fascinating on offense. Upand down the roster, efficiency abounds, but where is the usage?

The relationship between efficiency and usage is really at the crux of modern basketball analysis. Many objective systems overrate efficiency because they don’t model a realistic interaction between the players on the court. Meanwhile, many subjective observers overrate usage, i.e., a player’s ability to use possessions, because high usage can often result in impressive- looking per-game scoring numbers. The truth of the matter is that teams need a healthy balance of both for their offense to produce at an optimum level. You can have the most efficient group of players in NBA history on the floor; it’s not going to matter if they’re all standing around waiting for someone else to create the opportunity that they are so effective at converting.

Conversely, when you think about it, any player in the league can theoretically post a high usage rate just by chucking the ball towards the basket and turning it over to the other team. That’s not going to win you games, either.

Based on past career numbers, the only one of the Rockets’ probable starters that has a sure-fire projection for an above-average usage rate is Brooks. Luis Scola, who shouldered an increased offensive load during the Rockets’ playoff run last spring, is about average in projected usage.

New center David Andersen is a little better than that, but his projection is based on Euroleague statistics. Ariza may look like a player that can take on a much bigger role than he has in the past, but the fact of the matter is that he’s never even used an average percentage of possessions during his career. Battier, of course, is the epitome of a high-efficiency, low-usage performer.

So someone in this group is going to take on a significantly bigger role than he’s accustomed to on the offensive end. The most likely candidate for that would seem to be Ariza. If Brooks starts using even more possessions, he could end up leaving Rockets fans longing for the generous ways of Steve Francis.

Scola, too, will be in a more featured role. Invariably, with the increased responsibility on the offensive end, the efficiency of these players is going to dip. However the good news is that the per-possession numbers for Ariza and Scola are so strong that they can afford a little hit in efficiency without hurting the Rockets much, if at all.

The wild card in all of this may be Andersen, who is expected to start at center. Casual NBA observers almost certainly know nothing about Andersen, a 7’0” Australian who has continued playing overseas since being drafted by Atlanta in the second round in 2002.

He enters the NBA after an accomplished career in the Euroleague, where he ranks No. 8 in career scoring. (Scola is sixth--both players also crack the top 10 in career rebounds.) Andersen’s arsenal is classically European; he has three-point range on his jumper but is not much of an athlete. That could mean an adjustment for Andersen during his rookie season. He will be a very different kind of center than Yao, but one can envision the high pick-and-pop between Brooks and Andersen becoming a go-to play for head coach Rick Adelman this season.

The other player to watch is Jermaine Taylor, a rookie shooting guard from Central Florida. Taylor was an explosive scorer as a collegian, leading the nation in percentage of his team’s shots taken but still posting a fine .556 eFG%. SCHOENE sees him as being a highvolume shooter at the NBA level, a forecast that his ATH translation supports. Taylor has ample opportunity to be a source of instant offense off the Rockets’ bench this season, filling the role that departed Von Wafer did a year ago.

Perhaps it is no coincidence that the Rockets have so many players who sparkle in the glare of advanced metrics. No basketball-operations person has embraced, or embodied, the analytical sides of scouting and team building with quite the gusto of Houston general manager Daryl Morey. To put it in a baseball context, most personnel people in the league sound like baseball general managers circa 1995. Morey sounds like Theo Epstein, circa 2009.

But don’t let Morey fool you--he hasn’t let the cold realities of quantitative analysis sap the fun out of the game for Rockets fans, nor have his new-school methods stood in the way of him crafting a good working relationship with long-time NBA coach Adelman. He gives his coach good players with which to work and the results have been sterling.

What else is there? Morey also has the Rockets on solid financial footing. Getting zero production out of players with two massive contracts such as the ones attached to Yao and McGrady would cripple most teams. However, Morey has managed to piece together a workable roster around those two salary sinkholes, keeping the Rockets competitive while remaining under the luxury-tax threshold. Next summer, McGrady finally comes off the books, and by then Houston should know a lot more about Yao’s prognosis. Then the fun begins, as Houston will have more flexibility than most teams around the league. Morey may want to use it to lock up some of his current players, or he may want to make a splash. The key is that he’ll have the ability to choose and will have solid, objective reasons for whatever path he decides to follow.

The Rockets will be terrific fun to watch this season for many reasons. Rockets fans aren’t likely interested in the fact that their team may serve as a great case study; they want to win. The way it’s shaping up, though, it’s possible that Rockets fans and basketball students alike will be happy by the time the 2009-10 season comes to an end.

David Andersen was signed to be Yao Ming’s backup, even though Yao almost certainly won’t play in the coming season. Like many of Daryl Morey’s moves this summer, Andersen was signed not only to be a part of a serviceable Rockets center rotation but also to be a key piece for a big push next year. Andersen is a sweet-shooting, face-up center with the kind of passing skills that should allow him to excel in Rick Adelman’s motion offense. Andersen is highly motivated. After being drafted by Atlanta in the second round way back in 2002, he has been itching to take a shot at the NBA for several years. According to Andersen, the Hawks would neither make an offer to bring him over, nor would they make a trade to free him up to play with someone else. His patience should be well rewarded as he steps into an ideal situation in Houston. Andersen’s translated defensive skills are strong, though the reliability of those translations is very much in doubt.

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That was more work than I thought.

Also, Morey talks about this on his facebook page.

DD

 

And here are the side bars in the article, not sure how they will look.

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ROCKETS IN A BOX

Last year’s record 53-29
Last year’s Offensive Rating 109.7 (16)
Last year’s Defensive Rating 105.6 (4)
Last year’s point differential 4.0 (6)
Team Pace 89.0 (19)
SCHOENE projection 37-45 (12)
Projected Offensive Rating 108.4 ( 19)
Projected Defensive Rating 109.8 (18)
Projected team weighted age 27.6 (13)
Projected ’09-10 payroll $69.1 (16)
Likely payroll obligations, ’10-11 $47.3 (21)

Head coach: Rick Adelman Rick Adelman has coached four different NBA teams over 18 seasons and missed the playoffs just twice--the two years he coached Golden State. He faces one of his biggest challenges this year as injuries to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady have many observers forecasting a trip to the lottery for the Rockets.

Known for his efficient offenses, Adelman favors a Princeton-style motion attack that relies on ball movement and player movement away from the ball. Adelman’s ability to coach defense-oriented squads has been underrated due to pace-of-play issues, but some of that has been laid to rest in his time in Houston.

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Side bar 2

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Inside View

“We’re going to have to get more offense from transition and more from (Rick Adelman’s) offense, which means a lot of motion and cutting. (There) won’t really be a focal point, but I guess Aaron (Brooks) and (Luis) Scola will probably be the ones that will be asked to do more than most.” Daryl Morey, on where the offense will come from this year.

“We brought him in mostly for his defense, but we do think he can expand his offensive game as well. Coach Adelman feels good about his (fit) in his offense. We didn’t bring Trevor in to be a big offensive force for us.” Daryl Morey, on Trevor Ariza carrying more of an offensive load.

“Yao (Ming) is a very good defender. People think of him as an offensive player, but his biggest impact for us last year was on the defensive end. We do expect our defense to fall off a bit without him back there and we’re going to have to compensate by being more aggressive on (defense). “ Daryl Morey, on the team’s lack of shot blocking.

Daryl Morey is the Rockets’ general manager.

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Side Bar 3

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From the Blogosphere

Who: Jason Friedman
What: Rockets.com
Where: www.rockets.com/

The Rockets aren’t scheduled to make an appearance on national TV this season, no surprise given their current lack of star power. But someone figures to burst forth from the shadows and perhaps no Rocket is better positioned to do so than Luis Scola.

Offensively, he’ll be the primary option in the post, putting his plethora of spins, shakes and shimmies to good use. Scola also has an uncanny knack for reading the ball’s trajectory off the rim, which helps explain his exceptional rebound rate.

And few big men get up and down the floor as well as he does, a valuable asset as the Rockets attempt to play more up-tempo. The hirsute Argentinean is coming off an MVP performance at the FIBA Americas tournament this summer. A slight boost in his postseason numbers (more than 14 ppg and 11 rpg after Yao Ming’s injury) could make him a dark horse All-Star candidate.

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Those are the main ones the others are tables, that would not translate well here.

DD

 

I would venture to say there is no reliability at all in those translations.

 

They said:
[rquoter]However, the other system we use at Basketball
Prospectus, NBAPET, tells an entirely different
story. NBAPET sees the Rockets going 52-30 and
capturing the fourth seed in the West.[/rquoter]

And then went on to great lengths to "defend" that projection. Neither the projection nor the rationale behind it makes sense to me, and I say that as one of the more optimistic Rockets fans around here.

And that quote there did nothing to address it. All it says is "if they think Pops will fix their shotblocking problem, they must be out of their minds. Yao was a big part of their defensive prowess, and we don't know how good they are now." It's like they're collecting all these little factoids but are having trouble compiling them into a single coherent thought.

I will accept that there have been poor offensive teams that have overachieved in the wins column. But as an objective observer and a studious fan of these Rockets, I just do not see how they can win 52 games in this conference without Yao AND without McGrady. You and I are both Rockets fans. We know this team. It does not make sense. If they had projected 46-48 wins and a spot in the lower half of the playoff bracket, I would be more inclined.

Let's be realistic here. It's stuff like this that gives perfectly good statistical analysis a bad name, and why intelligent analysts like Hollinger et al don't get the respect they deserve. You know I am someone who has always been partial to quantitative analysis on this board -- I think that PER is an underrated stat, for example, and win shares, while severely overrated, do still have some value when used in conjunction with other measures. But this essay gets an C- from me. Good writing (and I might even venture to say impressive scouting reports), but this messes that all up.

That I can buy ... although then you'd be looking at the suggestion that you could potentially add McGrady to this "52-win team" and turn it into a contender. I'm not saying it can't happen, but at this stage of the season with the current outlook, it's not a realistic projection to make either. I think this right now is a mediocre team which, if McGrady does come back in good form, could turn into a pretty good team that will likely surprise many people. I hope that is how it turns out, but I'm not sitting here going "well, you know, even without McGrady these guys could win 50+ games and get home court advantage in the playoffs! The statheads said so!"

 

Anyone that's been watching the preseason games would be laughing hard to hear that people think we'll have the best defense in the league this year. We'd be lucky to be top 10, and that would have to happen by playing Andersen (and to an extent Cook + Budinger also) sparingly.

 

Didn't San Antonio shoot under 40%?

DD

 

Right now, those are all speculations. We will have more clear view in December.