I gotta go with Nachbar as a surprise winner. This kid has the attitude to go with the game. I'm actually more excited about Boki than Yao, but they will both be good additions if not great. Jay Williams or Caron Butler is everyone's pick but I think Nachbar will surprise everyone.
Neither of the Rockets will win R.O.Y. simply because they are already on a talented team. Jay Williams will be the man on the Bulls. Chances are that he will average about 20-23 points a game. No way either one of our rookies reach those numbers. My pick is Jay Will.
To be considered for ROY, you gotta be in the game. Hopefully it won't take till March to get Nachbar and Yao significant PT.
butler since miami has no other options and he will be a ball hog but ming is the best co rookies maybe?
I'd say the top candidates for ROY are... 1) Drew Gooden. 2) Jay Williams 3) Caron Butler As a caveat, I'd say that Nachbar does sound like he's very ready, but pt might be a problem, and if Ming makes a rookie impact, it might be a huge one.
Yao will have a good chance to make the 1st team due to the fact that the rest of the centers are so weak. Boki will have a difficult time because there are so many forwards in this draft class, not to mention the other forwards will play more than Boki. Dunleavy and Butler will play 30+ minutes a game. Boki wont. I think Boki will make the 3rd team, maybe even the 2nd if he gets more PT than anticipated.
I think the NBA will hype Yao vs. Williams for ROY since they were the no.1 and 2 picks. If both players have great stats and the anti-Ming sentiments continue, we might see co-ROY's, as we did with Francis & Brand. Yao Ming could win if he gets the playing time,with a 10-14 ppg ave., double digit rebounds and 2+ blocks. With stats like that and if the Rockets get into the play-offs he would be an easy pick for ROY. Personally, I don't think da Bulls are as likely to make as dramatic an improvement just by the addition of Williams. If he can win ROY as a 6' 2" point guard in CHitown, he must be a helluva player. Butler is supposedly the most NBA ready and could make a run if Miami features him in their offense...can't say I have any idea what's going on there. As for our Nachbar, he may turn out to be an exciting player, but I think being drafted at 15 he would have to have a 20+ scoring ave. and some game winning shots to get attention. (Not much chance to average 20+ with Steve and Cat in the line-up.....and Yao...and EG.....and Mo......and KT......and so on. It would seem that a talented player would have less of a chance to succeed on a team that lacks other talented players. Many talented rookies get buried on bad teams. The ideal situation for a ROY candidate is on a team whose other players compliment his ablities. The situation in Houston is ideal for a ROY candidate if his contributions lift the team from lottery status to post-season success. At least we know we have someone in the running for the honors. Its all conjecture till they start banging. I vote Yao today.
Talented Rookies on bad teams is an ideal situation for ROY. They are given the chance to take control of the team. If they are truly that talented then they will win ROY. The Rockets situation is not an ideal one for ROY. We simply will not play our rookies as much as the Bulls play Williams, as much as the Heat play Butler, as much as the Grizz play Gooden, and as much as the Warriors play Dunleavy simply because we have so much more talent than those teams. It would be illogical for Nachbar and Ming to each play 35 min. a game. It would not be illogical for the other players to play that much. That is why our guys wont be in the ROY running. Just because a team goes from the lottery to the playoffs does not mean that the rookie on the team was a big part of it.
Williams, Dunleavy, and Butler have the best chances to win ROY but Yao and Boki won't because Rudy probably won't give them all that much playing time.
. Agree that Rudy's history is not to put rookies in the starting line up. However, Yao is his first over-all no.1 pick. Ex-Rockets over-all #1 picks (Lucas, Sampson, Olajuwan) all started their first year....Rudy wasn't coach, but he was here. I keep thinking Ming should start at least to give us our best chance to win the opening jump.
Williams probably will be the ROY. Ming has a good chance of making the 1st rookie team,and Nachbar might make it too.
First I have to compliment management in the job that they did in the draft. We had our best draft this and perhaps last decade as far as I am concerned because we filled our only needs and now have depth. And I think that either of these guys has the chance to get rookie of the year remember that the players that Rudy does not play are the overly young ones like Eddie Griffin even if they are phenoms and this is smart. Remember that Dickerson and Mobley were key components in our run to the playoffs the year that Scottie was here and they were both about 22. Pretty much Yao and Nachbar's ages now that I think about it. The only factor that is different here is that they are foreign and will have to adjust, I think especially Ming. How ever I think that Caron Butler will win it because that Miami team has a chance to make some real noise if they find a Center like what Ike Austin was to them a few years back and Pat Riley is too good to go to the lottery twice.
i dont know about ROY but my all-rookie team is: ming gooden butler wagner williams 2nd team: dunleavy tskitishvili jeffries dickau borchardt
Very difficult to predict ROY until pre-season. However I don't believe Hilaro or tskitishvili have no skills yet and probably won't be in the running.
I think Ming would probably get the start at the beginning of the season. Remember Francis was in the starting line up in his rookie year from the beginning of the season. Remember NBA is a business. People came to see Ming play and not sitting on the bench. With all the hype that Ming got for being the first pick it will be easier for Les to fill the Compaq center with Ming in the starting line up from the beginning of the season. Unless Cato showed a vast improvement in the preseason over last year, I expect the Rockets to start Ming for the exposure purposes. Remember Ming is in the spot light in China for the past few year and on an international level for past 1-2 year. He used to all the attention and probably already learn to adapt to new situation. The sooner you expose to the new situation, the sooner you will adapt. So, I do not think that it will harm him by starting him right of the bat. Also, no one expect him to dominate right away so the pressure is not that much greater by putting him in the starting line up. As far as ROY, it not far fetch to think that Ming would have a good chance of winning it. Remember, Cato average 7-8 ppg just on dunk and occasional put back. If his free throw percentage was around 80 % like I expect Ming's free throw % would be, Cato would add another point or two to his point per game average. With that being said, I do not think it is too hard for Ming to average double figure (may be 15-17 ppg) with all the skills and touchs that he suppose to have. All he need is to make 3 or 4 more basket a game compare to Cato and shoot a better free throw percentage than Cato then he can average around 17- 18 ppg easily. If he can grab 8-10 rebounds a game and block about 2-3 shot a game, then his stat would be favorable for ROY (Gasol had this similiar stats last year). Remember Sampson average 22-23 ppg in his rookie season and average double figure in rebounds. Olajuwon average over 20 ppg and double figure in rebound in his rookie year. Ming offensive skills are far along now compare to Hakeem in his rookie season. Sampson was 7'4" and weighed around 235 during his rookie season. Ming is only 1 inch taller but with 60lbs more in weight .So I do not think that his frame will be a problem at all at this time. Of the big man in history of NBA, I think that Ming's skills resemble Sampson's skill more than Bradley or Smits, except Sampson is not as big as Ming. Sampson is a big man who had the outside touch, can dribble,run the floor, rebound and block. If Sampson didn't had his injury, I think he could be among the best big men in the history of the game. Remember how Magic alway want to play with Sampson (as evidence when Sampson win the All Star MVP playing with Magic). I think Ming will have the similiar success that Sampson have in his rookie season if he had the playing time and his teamate are willing to utilize his skills as much as possible for the good of the team. His stat might not be as good as Sampson in his rookie season because this team is better than the team that Sampson with. With all that said, I expect the Rocket to be a very good 2nd half team and make the playoff. And who know if they are on a roll, they might surprise some folks in the playoff.
