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The Myth of the Rockets and 2010 Free Agency

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BimaThug, May 9, 2009.

  1. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Hypothetically, your proposal is POSSIBLE. But it is highly improbable (even assuming that Bosh specifically demanded a S&T to the Rockets), for the following reasons:

    (1) Luis Scola would have to agree to be signed-and-traded to Toronto. While (as roslolian points out) the Raptors seem like a good fit for Scola, there is nothing forcing him to agree to such a deal. He and his agent will likely want to wait out the free agency process in search of the best available deal. This would seriously stall any S&T deal for Bosh.

    (2) Why on Earth would Yao Ming voluntarily take a 40+% paycut??? He is the team's best player. Even if he returns as a shell of his former self, he knows that he is Les's cash cow and that he is "worth" the max salary simply from an economic standpoint.

    (3) If Tracy is worth re-signing, he may not re-sign for as low as $10M per. Personally, that is what I'd LIKE to see (assuming that he returns healthy and is at least a reasonable facsimile of his former healthy self), but he'll likely want something closer to the $15-17M per range.

    (4) For a S&T of a player (Bosh) who, in your hypothetical, obviously does not want to stay in Toronto, this is a HELL of a lot of assets to give up for him. Sure, it might be necessary to make the salaries match, but the Rockets could probably accomplish the same objective by keeping Battier and renouncing their rights to Lowry. Or by re-signing Lowry on the cheap and using the resulting cap space to allow the Rockets to take back more salary in the trade.

    Nice thinking. But highly improbable.
     
  2. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Correct. If you read carefully, you'll note that I said that the Rockets used the MPE on Ariza. MPE = Medical Player Exception.
     
  3. SamCassell

    SamCassell Member

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    As Bima states, no way Yao signs for such a low number. And i'd be careful what I wished for in Bosh. He's 4 years younger than Scola and a more prolific scorer, but when was the last championship contender who was built around a jump shooting big man with minimal post game? Scola's the better rebounder per minute and has a better shooting percentage, because he can get his shot in the post. Do you really want to toss that, plus Battier, away so that you can pay Bosh 3x the salary?
     
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  4. v3.0

    v3.0 Member

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    Well Garnett kinda fits your description but I readily admit the Celtics wasn't solely built around him and KG is a more complete player then Bosh.

    I'm not on the Bosh bandwagon either btw.
     
  5. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    Bimathug,I was painting scenerios. You know as well as I do that if the rox give the max to a guy that will have missed the entire 09 season and 90+ games the last 4 seasons, the rockets might as well pack up the franchise. As far as tracy, even with a good 09 season, I don't think a team will offer him more than 10m. The bossh scenerio is entirely up to him. Scola with a chance to play on a team and international type city would be very appealing. I acknowledge there are a lot of moving parts, but its kinda the only the rockets can be players. I mean dallas pulled off a 4 team trade that had way more moving pieces.
     
  6. saleem

    saleem Member

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    Not me. I'm not against trading anyone,to improve the team but Bosh can't complement Yao well enough,provided if the latter makes a unlikely come back to full health over a long period of time.
     
  7. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Then I guess you should start looking for another NBA team. If the Rockets don't re-sign (a returned to health) Yao for the max salary, then it will be to a figure only slightly below it. While I'm fairly confident that Les Alexander is committed first and foremost to putting out the most competitive team year in and year out (especially given that Houston sports fans tend to be bandwagoners and shell out for a winner WHEN it's a winner), Yao Ming is the one area in which finances will rule the day. If Yao wants the max, Les will give it to him. Yao simply means too much to Les's bottom line. If he were a marginal (or even just a good) talent (think Yi Jianlian), then sure, Les does not cow tow to him. But Yao is also one of the most dominant post players in the league. So, he'll get whatever salary he wants.

    You might be right about Tracy, though. But Tracy might think that Tracy is more valuable, and that would seriously derail any attempts to acquire a top free agent. The Rockets would not be able to utilize ANY cap room in a S&T until Tracy is re-signed or his rights renounced.
     
  8. Seth

    Seth Member

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    Lol at those saying that McGrady will get 15 millions.

    Iverson can´t get 6 millions and can actually play when it matters.

    Who is going to pay T-Mac 15 millions for him to skip games anytime his fingernails are hurt??
     
  9. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    Saleem, Bosh of all the pf in the league would probably play better with Yao than anyone. He's a really good mid game,post guy,has good size and legnth and is young. This is equivalent to the spurs getting duncan out the draft. Yao is on the backend and injury prone, and its not even debatable whether he would be the best player on the rox. Talking about scola and battier in the same sentence and as bosh isn't even in the mix.

    Bimathug, no matter what, i'm always goinv for the rockets, but as you knw the whole cash cow is the wrong reason to overpay a injury prone guy like Yao. Yao is a all star caliber player and nowhere close to being capable of packing any team. Who is the cash cow for the mavs who generate just as much money as the rox? What about the bulls or pistons that generate more money? Its one thing to make decisions based on feelings and another to be made with huge risk factors. If Yao was consistently dominant, that's one thing,but when a team has shown they have won just as much without you as with youj has something to do with your impact on the game.

    I'm not saying yao shouldn't be resigned, I am saying just like with tracy, his contract should reflect his immediate and future impact on the rockets win total. If the would like to add 2m because he's a big, cool, but the rockets on the courgt will be paying for making him a max player that would handicap the team bigtime.
     
  10. Seth

    Seth Member

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    I actually don´t see Yao asking for a max deal. Maybe a deal similar of what he has now, 15-16 millions. But it´s not that he ignores the fact that he has played very little for what he has been payed.
    I see Yao more leaned towards asking morey to put up a contender team than giving him just money.
    That means resigning him and adding a premiere PG or SG. Assuming Scola can be the third star.
     
  11. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    As noted before, if you know how to market and do your job as a owner and hire the right people, you don't need a cash cow or anyone else that might cripple your franchise. I remember how terrible the mavs were pre cuban, now they are a very good franchise regardless of people thinking cuban plays fantasy league with his team. Detroit is one of the hardest hit places in this nation, yet they are very profitable and make a lot of money. If not for dumars having a brain fart, they were a winning franchise.
     
  12. Dark_Tower

    Dark_Tower Member

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    Whether the "cash cow" rationale is the wrong reason or not to pay Yao, that factor is going to be at the forefront of Les' mind when negotiating. Yao's agent may also understand this fact, and could use it in negotiations. But if Yao asks for max/near max money, he has the leverage and the influence to receive what he asks for.

    Now Yao might decide (or be persuaded) to take less money a la Tom Brady. IMO, I think that there is a good chance Yao could voluntarily sign a below market deal, because Yao's fairly unselfish. However, I just don't see too many scenarios in which the Rockets tell Yao to kick rocks at the negotiating table (i.e. giving Yao a lowball, take it or leave it offer).
     
  13. SamCassell

    SamCassell Member

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    If the Rockets don't offer Yao max money, some other team will. Anyone with the cap room to spend would offer it to Yao, for both financial and on-the-court reasons. As you and others have indicated, Yao's unselfish and loyal and might stay here for a less-than-market deal. But you can hardly count on that going forward and planning for the future. I could see him taking $15m or $16m, like Seth said, but a big pay cut would be a slap in the face for him. Yao's given the Rockets everything he's had for years and sacrificed his body to do so. And he'll be signing what will be in all likelihood his final contract.
     
  14. Dark_Tower

    Dark_Tower Member

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    Agreed. If the Rockets are keeping Yao (which certainly appears to be the case now) then you don't lowball him. I don't see why contract talks would be anything other than amicable and respectful, particularly with the high regard the organization holds Yao Ming, the person, in. Now I could see situations where the team approaches Yao about taking a $14-16M contract specifically to create cap room to make a significant acquisition, but I definitely don't see a $10M offer hitting the table unless the goal is to drive Yao away from the table.
     
  15. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

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    It's a symbiotic relationship though. There are only so many markets Yao could go to where it would be profitable to give him a max contract, and so many places Yao himself could live at that have a Chinese population suitable to sustain a star of his stature without making his everyday living there feel like absolute crap. And as far as locations for Yao that would beat Houston...only LA, NY, and maybe Toronto and Golden State come to mind. Good luck convincing D'Antoni and Don Nelson to implement a guy like Yao in their gameplans though. You might as well just fire the coaches in those situations.

    Yao is good for Houston, and Houston is good for Yao. That's why David Stern gave us the pick in the first place. That doesn't mean that Yao is a shoe-in to stay here, but it also doesn't mean that the Rockets have zero leverage in the negotiation process. I bet we could sign him for a number below the minimum, 14-16 like people have been suggesting, if for no other reason than the fact that Yao has honor and knows that towards the downside of his career his ostensible worth as an icon will not come anywhere near his physical worth as a basketball player.
     
  16. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

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    Err maximum, not minimum. My bad.
     
  17. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    I hope I am not derailiing this thread, but the rockets don't owe Yao anything cor playing hard or being playing with honor. The rockets have compensated Yao very well despite him missing 2 full seasons in 7 years. Like I said before, the rockets aren't some expansion franchise trying to enter with the sharks. This team has great tradition, a history of great pivots, and a team minus yao and tracy could reload and be just as good if not better. I don't think 10m is lowball, that 10m for a guy that misses a lot of games. If you want tgo show loyalty, bump it to 12, but in now way should he be paid like a superstar when he's jjst a all star caliber guy on the decline. Just like McGrady and his injury history, their earning potential has declined bigtime.

    When the Laker traded shaq, he was a better player than Yao is right now and they had concerns over his injury history. He took a cut from 30m down to 20m in miami. Now i'm not saying I agree with trading Shaqq, but they made the best decision for on court success. That's what the rockets should do in regards to Yao and Tracy. The deceision should be made based on on curt success.

    This is the nba and players don't get max deals because they play with honor or hard. Players get those mega deals because of their talent and ability to perform at a high level. When the spurs re-upped robinson,the gave him 9m per to fin.ish his career because he was still a good player, not because he played with honor or hard.
     
  18. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    I don't think it will happen, but Yao might be the only guy in the league I can see following in Al Jefferson's footsteps in signing for less than the max. I do get the sense that he genuinely feels guilt when he is unable to contribute. It won't happen though because such a paycut won't really help us much, but theoretically I do see him willingly agreeing.
     
  19. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    A few thoughts:

    -Both Duncan and Arenas took pay cuts to make their team better. Personality wise, the two couldnt be further apart. I would say Yao, personality wise, is probably closer to Duncan and it is feasable he would be willing to not take the max, but unlikely. If there is one thing we have learned, its that Morey is a shrewd negotiatior and rarely dissapoints.

    -McGrady is better than Iverson because he offers more tools on the court. He is a better passer, rebounder, heck even defender. McGrady, after this season, will probably command 8-12 million dollars, assuming he doesnt have a repeat of last year. Ideally he resigns here for 8 million and we move some pieces to be able to bring in a third star.

    -As far as rebuilding, this organization NEVER admits defeat. For all intensive purposes, this year we should tank and put the best possible product on the court next year. But it is clear, the organization is going all out to ensure we have a competitive team on the court this year. That said, I think it is highly unlikely the Rockets admit defeat and choose not to resign Yao, when he could still be serviceable.
     
  20. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    I never said not to resign Yao and Tracy and reducing their salary does help the team a lot as far as the cap and lux tax especially if they do a sign and trade with the other players. Its about fair market value for both. If yao sign a extension extension starting at his last yr present salary, we are looking at 20m per with the max raises. If the rocket let mcgrady expires, resigns scola at 6m and brooks will have to be resigned at about the same, the rox will be up against and not able to sign a top flight guy.
     

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