I thought it was a known fact that the dirty side of the storm is the east side. That's all they talk about when these storms hit. Steve Lyons needs to go back to school.
lolz... By the looks of the updated map now... it's shifted more south... so it could come to the Gulf of Mexico... heh... I guess we won't really know where it's going until this weekend.
eh, don't bet on it. Look at the historial tracking map. If this thing becomes a hurricane, the east coast has a higher chance of being hit than the gulf coast. i still think this will become a fish storm.
Hmm... Well.. I don't see it as a fish storm (which I think you mean that it's just going to die out in the ocean)... I believe it'll hit some land somewhere... from what our local meteorologists models... they haven't ruled the Gulf of Mexico because two of their models still show it coming toward the Gulf... and from there.. you can't predict this far in advance where it'll go. I do agree though with historical models, they tend to follow what has happened in the past. Let's hope for the best... if it's a cat 1 storm which I think it might end up staying at... I wouldn't mind that in Houston or around Texas, much needed rain.. not highly threatening wind... and if it's a storm with high pressure... then it may even get weaker as it comes into the city from it's early hit on Galveston.
Uh, our local meteorologists in Houston? It is too early to tell where it's going, much less going into the Gulf. Just admit, you want a hurricane to come here again!
Meant to say Meteorlogist.. singular... (heh I watch the news every morning at 5) but anyways... I did say it's too early to tell where it's going right now didn't I? And for the 4th time... Yes, I want a STORM (tropical storm up to a cat 2 hurricane) to come here yes... strictly for the rain though... nothing else. I don't know why you have the impression that I would want any harm doing to anyone... especially myself.
Ah okay, who do you watch? Most of times, it's Tim Heller for me. Well, do you realize a category 1 storm CAN cause harm to people and damage too? A rain event is way better than a hurricane. Time to pray to the rain gods to send us a storm system!
Local 2.. Anthony Yanez in the mornings and when I watch in evening Frank Bilingsley. Yes, I do realize that, but I mean a Cat 1 isn't nearly as bad as a storm like Ike... I guess I can see what you're saying though... we'll see what happens though... I'm not praying or wishing that we get destruction here though, I just hope we get some much needed rain, hopefully a lot...
I want this one to hit as a TS and push into central texas and DUMP for a week. Our lakes are less than 50% FULL. DD
Really? How did you come with that one? Check out this interesting forecast discussion from this morning. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009 .LONG TERM... THE EXTENDED IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET TRICKY. THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 61W AND 51W LOOK LIKE THEY EVENTUALLY PHASE OVER THE CARRIBEAN. WE SHOULD SEE THESE FLARE UP WITH ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHICH WILL HELP DEFINE THEM A LITTLE BETTER. BUT IT IS THESE OR THE UNIFIED FEATURE OF THESE THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKENING SHEAR ALOFT BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS IS WHERE WE FIND WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS INITIALIZING BETTER IF AT ALL. ALL DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB YESTERDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DOING A BETTER JOB THIS MORNING. WITH REGARDS TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT...THE GFS CREATES TWO CENTERS AND ELONGATES THE THE UPPER HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS UPPER WINDS OF 10KT WHILE ACTUAL SPEEDS ARE 20KT. THE ECMWF DOES A VERY GOOD JOB AT REPRESENTING THIS UPPER HIGH. THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD WESTWARD BLOCKING ANY DISTURBANCE FROM HEADING NORTH UNTIL IT FINDS ITS WAY INTO THE GULF. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EAST COAST AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...FORCING ANY FEATURE THAT WOULD DEVELOP INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THEN NW GULF BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. OBVIOUSLY WITH A WEAKER RIDGE PATTERN FROM THE GFS...THE FEATURE WOULD MOVE INTO FLA. SO ALL IN ALL...IT IS SIMPLY SOMETHING TO CONTINUE WATCHING. HAVE NOT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE ON THIS PACKAGE. TO BRING POP NUMBERS UP MORE...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE AGREEMENT WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
TD 1 is just rain, less than 30% chance of turning into anything significant. TD2 could get cyclonic, but odds are good that its gonna run north and get the east coast wet. However there are a few models that always have it hitting the Gulf and going gaga. The winds of East Africa, however, are creating some patterns that after a run across the Dark Continent and into the Atlantic, we could see an actual hurricane hit the GOM come early Sept. And thats just comparing Eastern African weather patterns, which while last year proved to be dead-on (the EA pattern that ended up hitting Houston was ridiculously similar to Rita), is still a crapshoot. I'm hoping for a quiet hurricane season. We're barely back to pre-Sept09 production levels with the Bluewater Hub finally back in service last month and the last thing the Gulf needs is more destruction in the offshore grid. When those wells get torn to shreds, a lot of the time the producers dont wanna reinvest in redrilling. Especially with 3.57 Sept natty prices and a surplus of storage gas everywhere.
http://geography.about.com/od/physicalgeography/a/2009names.htm 2009 TS/Hurricane Names Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
the TD2 is still a TD...it's struggling to become a hurricane. what to watch out is a possible wave out of Yucatan area in next few days...my co worker sent me those links regarding the possible wave off Yucatan. link one link two
That Yuctan wave looks like its dis-orientated... there's another wave coming off the coast of Africa that looks to be even bigger than TD2 right now.. TD2 will becoming Tropical Storm Ana later on tonight... It's not struggling.. it's in colder waters right now.. if it goes into the North Atlantic across the Eastern seaboard, it won't generate into much.. maybe a high tropical storm, low cat 1 hurricane at best.. if it comes into the Gulf.. it has higher potential because of the warm waters.
