the market is doing very well that is for sure. however, revenues are down and profits are up solely because of corporate cutbacks in jobs and spending which is not good for the economy.
Half of the economic game is confidence, once everyone feels up about the economy, the spending will begin again. Jobs always lag behind a bit, but I'm personally confident that when all the green lights go on (strong market, a sustained period of GDP growth, increasing consumer confidence etc. etc.), we'll see a surprisingly strong rebound in the corporate sector, with jobs and spending aplenty. These things do take time though. I do however wonder if certain people will ever accept the fact that the economy is doing well or if they'll try to find some other guild line with which to measure the president every time there is positive news. I think he's done quite fine with the economy myself, although obviously he hasn't been perfect (I'm not really a fan of Keynesian economics)...however, he's done the most important thing a president could have done in such a calamity; appear calm, competent, in control and pass acts that deliver definitive action. It's time to recognize that just a few months ago, we were leaning on the edge of the abyss...and now we're back in a more reasonable plateau, thanks at least partly to the POTUS.
But this is how economies always turn around. Companies get more efficient, cut back on inventory, etc to turn profits. And then demand ramps up and more efficient companies produce even more profits. That's the reason employment is a lagging indicator of GDP.
things may be slowly "bottoming" out but i have little confidence in a consumer driven turn around for the american economy. there is still a lot more work to be done.
Many companies are using the recession as a reason to outsource and cut costs in America. When the demand ramps there might no longer be jobs available in America since the infrastructure overseas is built up. These aren't just manufacturing jobs, but high tech jobs as well.
Certainly - this is only step 1 and there is much more that needs to happen. However, if there is to be a recovery, there has to be this step 1.
So you're suggesting that if the economy was better, companies would make inefficient decisions? Outsourcing and cutting costs was happening during a strong economy too.
I am saying even when this economy gets better, unemployment might be higher than we are used to. I also think the biggest engine of the US economy might take a while before it recovers, if it ever does. Maybe the real growth will come from places outside the US.
disagree 100%. if people are paying attention to misleading numbers then it is pointless. the unemployment rate dropped solely because people left the workforce. not good. u-5 and u-6 still increased. further, the economy is only sustaining itself because of the govt propping up everything it can get away with. i'm not saying the govt should do nothing but i am just saying i don't see anything getting better or growth occuring long term. what should drive growth long term? a very large portion of the growth over the past 2 decades was just from financial bs. what even drives growth in the first place? in my eyes the only way america actually grows the economy is thru population growth. we don't have to always have this push for "growth" if it isn't real or sustainable.
Wait - so you disagree that, in the event of a recovery, the rate of job slow will slow before growing again? That's all I am suggesting. The economy very well could still go down - but if it is going up, it has to go through this step of companies turning profits without employment going up. It did prop up a lot - but those things are now becoming self-sustaining. The banks are now functioning and profitable on their own. Ford managed to turn itself around, and there are signs the other auto companies are doing so as well. Even AIG, the biggest boondoggle of this mess, is actually turning itself around slowly. While there was certainly a lot of bs financial growth over the last 15-20 years, there was also a lot of real growth that was created, especially in the technology fields. Most of those tech companies are completely independent of the financial growth and don't rely on debt or anything of the sort.
They all still need crucial government assistance to prop up their numbers. Cash for clunkers, treasury and fed injections...the shopping list is endless. Not that I wouldn't mind passing another stimulus package. Money for Government Works takes a while to filter down and process. Tax and consumer rebates won't be effective if the people are rightly saving more money. Then again, a VAT will likely be needed to continue to finance the spending, and who knows what effects that will have on consumer spending.
i'm just saying people need to look further into this number rather than having a party after seeing we "beat" on unemployment. that goes for every number that comes out as well. i don't see this misleading number as a positive sign. i'm not disagreeing that jobs lag but nothing else has really indicated things are ready for a long term recovery.
Tremendous erosion at the base of Niagara Falls undermines the shale cliffs and as a result the falls have receded approximately 7 miles over the last 10,000 years.
Companies are doing more with less. It wouldn't surprise me if many, many of these jobs never come back.
