With Lower Estimated Cap, Rockets Probably Can't Offer Max

Renouncing Luis's rights means both giving up the right of first refusal (restricted status) AND Larry Bird rights, allowing the Rockets to exceed the salary cap to offer him a contract.

As to the second question, I'll refer you to Larry Coon's excellent CBA FAQ:

Of course, a smart GM would immediately swoop in and sign away Scola during the 7 day waiting period, so that's a risky game to play.

 

Here is how we contend in 2010-2011:



Rockets trade Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, and Chase Budinger to Blazers for Rudy Fernandez, and Joel Przybilla.




Rockets trade Tracy McGrady, Luis Scola, Carl Landry, Aaron Brooks, and Jermaine Taylor to te Suns for Amare Stoudemire, Jason Richardson, and Goran Dragic.




Rotation - (minutes per game)



Starters:

PF - Stoudemire

SF - Ariza

C - Yao

SG - Richardson

PG - Lowry


Bench:

PG - Dragic

SG/SF- Fernandez

PF - Dorsey

C - Przybilla

 

If the Rockets were to come to some agreement with Yao in either of these two scenarios:

1. Yao tries to come back this year, but it turns out his career is done. So the Rockets offer to buy out his 2010-11 contract and give him a coaching/administration contract....

or

2. Yao is not able to play at all this year. The Rockets offer to Yao to "buyout" his last year (yes i know it is a player option), and sign him to a much smaller contract from 2010-11 for say 2-3 yrs.

Is how does that affect the salary cap. I know we would be over the cap this year for sure, but would we have more maneuvering room next year?

 

I agree. Battier clearly is a guy that could be off-loaded for an expiring. But like NIKE, I am not sure what available players are out there that would sign here that would be huge difference makers.

I like Joe Johnson. He is on the next tier down from the LBJ/Wade/Bosh group. I think that's the kind of player we would look at targeting.

If the Rockets could move Battier for an Expiring+Young Asset, get a decent lottery draft pick and then somehow woo Johnson to coming to this team (even though the Hawks could offer more) then that would be about as good a summer haul as one could expect.

 

I think people set their sites too high with the summer of 2010.

First, people need to understand who gets the max salary. It's not just the best few players in the league. Considering some the big contracts good role players get in the offseason you have to think that if you could go over the max, teams would to sign Lebron or Wade. Bosh, Dirk, Johnson, and Amare, i believe, are playing on a max money level. Then, there are guys who will either be old or not quite max level players yet: Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Shaq, Rudy Gay, Michael Redd, Lamarcus Adlridge, Manu Ginobili, and Carlos Boozer.

In any other year any of those 14 guys would get atleast near max money. If you can get one for considerably less than the max, i'd consider it a bargain.

But, I think the rockets are going to be vultures when it comes to the solid role players. Guys like Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, Ronnie Brewer, and Travis Outlaw might end up signing for extremely discounted prices. I honestly don't see us wasting our time with the big name free agents. Our team is too unpredictable (health wise) to convince a big name to come here without overpaying.

I think the best bet is that we trade our expirings this year for a star (or lotto pick) and some role players, we nab one or two high value free agents with our MLE, and end up a better team than the ones that traded away all their assets for 1 big name player.

 

This is what I think Moreys plan is.

 

I hope not.
It seems that teams are going the 3 healthy stars route for championships.

Yao Ming and T-mac and a bunch of roleplayers is another disaster.

 

wow very detailed response. I like the source, it made your reply credible.

Thanks!!

 

As desperate as the Jazz are about there cap space and keeping millsap...I would see about offereing Battier, Barry and Cook for Boozer and there 1st from the Knicks...I mean 12 million off the books and potentially 2 high first round picks in one of the best draft classes in years...Jazz need a small forward that fits in there system while 6 million come off the books next summer.

Just food for thought!

 

I agree with this 100% He will be a great building block.

 

Looking at the numbers is very depressing. However looking at the names that is around, you could get an all-star for discounted contracts or even poach the RFA of teams that want to compete in the FAs.

Lebron James will be the ultimate prize for any team, but how likely is he to move from Cleveland? With the economy as bad as it is now, not many teams will be able to sign players. Hence the only way that Lebron James will be able to sign with a team is a team that have to rebuild their entire roster, i.e. Knicks.

I really can't see him making a move like that, especially when Cavs is trying to improve their squad every season. Some may shoot down the impact of Shaq, but he still put up at 18/9 season.

 

True, Most of the free agents would sign with their respective teams. Their teams can offer them more then other teams unless the team is under the cap. Teams would be scampering to sign the leftovers. Trade or sign now and not gamble to much next year.

 

How does Battier fit what they do? How does standing in the corner, not running the break, and not cutting to the rim even closely fits utah? Even slow footed guys like korver and a ox like harpring moves better without the ball than shane.

 

Don't forget that the cap affects everyone. NY is just about crushed now in its hopes to instantly become a championship contender in 2010. If anything, these penny-pinching times cater well to Morey's strength, being his ability to seek out and acquire cost-efficient talent. If there's a star out there that won't be getting the max but might be a better bet than the other stars to continue expanding his game and increasing his level of dominance, then maybe that's where you'll see Morey committing his big bucks.

 

Bima, taking into acount your post on Utah's cap problems and the recent failed Boozer/Hinrich trade, I posted this trade yesterday in the Dish:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeM...?tradeId=lowrjm

Similar to the Utah/Portland/Chicago trade except we replace Portland's cap space with McGrady's contract and take Kirilenko and Hinrich + a first rounder from Utah.

Utah might prefer this deal as it dumps Kirilenko's contract (we know they've tried to trade Kirilenko for McGrady's contract before) saving them money in 2010/11, and McGrady's insurance helps cover their lux tax fees when they resign Millsap. Both Thomas and McGrady are expirings so it gets them capspace for 2010 FAs. I think we can get their first round pick, but I doubt they will give up NY's pick, as the original Utah/Portland/Chicago trade would then be better for them.

Chicago gets exactly what they want in Boozer for Hinrich and Tim Thomas.

For Houston, Kirilekno adds front court depth and makes Landry or Scola expendable in a trade. We can keep Hinrich who I think is a great backcourt partner for Brooks, or we can see how badly Pritchard wants him. Hinrich for Pryz+Rudy? Between Hinrich, Battier, Scola and Landry we should have enough assets to swing a trade for a C.

Do you think it's realistic? + Do you think that's good value for McGrady's contract?

 

Sorry screwed up the link: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=lowrjm

 

2 things to consider...

1. The doom and gloom about a 50 mil cap is just that. The NBA just went through one of the worst years in a while for the league and the cap only dropped 1 mil. For it to drop to 50 mil the league would have to be in total collapse. Only the big TV markets and a few other teams will make a profit. So unless are economy does even a worse nosedive than it already has I don't see much more than 54-55 mil cap.

2. Duncan took a much lower salary to help his team out. I am sure Yao would do the same. I think Yao would be willing to sign for considerably less to help the team win.

So I do think we will be in range to sign someone to the Max without gutting the team, if that is what Morey wants. But that may not be what Morey and the Rockets want. Maybe Tmac grows up a little bit and comes back in great form. Already he says he feels better than this time last year. Ariza replaces Artest and I see that as being an improvement with a player Like Tmac. Tracy and Artest never looked good together on the floor and were probably worst in the locker room. All of our young guys should improve. Dorsey looks like he can contribute some at the center spot. I can see Budinger annd Taylor having roles in our offense. And I would hate to lose Battier but if we could get a temp starter and good backup for Yao until he returns it could be worth it. By the way I think Yao mings death for a season is all talk for the purpose of the exception.

So if that is the direction the Rockets are going then they are obviously are not looking to be under the cap. And if Tmac could grow up finally we might be better served signing him to a smaller contract (see Iverson) and keeping Scola and Lowry then anything we could pick up in return. If not and he has a good year then a sign and trade is always an option.