With Lower Estimated Cap, Rockets Probably Can't Offer Max

And remember Joe Johnson will be almost 30 at that point and he has yet to show up big in the playoffs.

After James and Wade, I don't think there is any clear cut, no doubt franchise player in that 2010 FA crop. There are a ton of sexy names but after the Big 2, I don't know if you want to go all in with any of those guys. Bosh and Johnson are nice but are they worthy of being maxed out franchise players? Even if you argue they are, there will still be more demand than supply for a handful of players. Several teams will come up empty-handed or overspend for past-their-prime players with high profile names.

 

I do have a question I hope someone can answer.

Lemme first explain what renouncing the rights to a restricted FA means. The reason why we have to renounce the right of a restricted FA is because a team no longer have the cap space to offer him a qualifying offer AFTER offering another FA excessive amount such that there is no more cap space for the qualifying offer.

However, given that luis scola is not on a normal rookie contract scale, does anyone here know what the qualifying amount is to Luis Scola?

THX!!

 

I dont want to turn this into a trade thread but this is why Battier for Rudy F./T.Outlaw makes so much since. If these guys dont work out then there contracts are gone and its known Portland loves Battier. Something likes this will happen because Morey already knows what this team will like in 2011 and realizes this is the summer to put the pieces around Yao if he ever does comeback if not there is ur money in 2011.

 

Qualifying offers to non-first round pick restricted free agents are for 125% of their previous salary. In Scola's case, this would be about 4.2m.

This is different than the "cap hold", or the amount he would count against the cap while unsigned. In Scola's case, his cap hold is about 6.7m.

 

Reality checks are depressing.

Next seasons FA class is suppposed to be one of the best ever and the salary cap is supposed to decrease again!! Talk about bad timing. The lowering of the cap recently is the first time it has happened since the cap was intituted (1985 if im not mistaken). Lets hope it doesn't decrease by much next season.

Can someone please explain why this is happening even though total revenues increased this past season?

 

I don't know if Bima or somebody else is interested in doing it but I'd like to see an accurate list of every teams' current cap situation for 2010/11.

I think it would be interesting to start a thread showing these numbers then update it as teams make moves that affect their payrolls.

After that, I'd like to see an accurate list of all 2010 free agents. I think a look at this list will show that after the top 3 or 4 FAs, there is a significant dropoff because of age. The names may look good but most of those guys will be near 30 or much older at that point.

If there will be a greater demand than supply for those top few FAs, what may end up happening is several teams overpaying for 2nd and 3rd tier players.

 

Depends on what players you feel are realistic options. LeBron is not coming to Houston, it is NY or Cleveland. Wade is not going anywhere. As for Bosh, he is not a franchise player, and there are many rumors linking him to Miami and Wade.

The Rockets really only have a shot at Bosh or Joe Johnson, and neither of those guys are franchise level talents.

I agree with what you posted, but if the Rockets really think they have a shot at an elite free agent, they can make a move to get more cap space.

I think that the lower cap effects teams like NY more, because they will not get a LeBron James unless they can land another young, elite player (Wade, Bosh, etc) to sign at the same time. Now, it will be that much harder....

The class of 2010 is possibly going to be a power shifting off season, but it will be the guys that slip through the cracks and have to take less than market value.

 

I do not see anyone out there that is a realistic target that is worth the Rockets spending their MLE on.

 

I say offer it to Marvin Williams and dare the ATL to match it!

 

I do not think Marvin will ever be an all star, but I think he is well on his way to being a good starter in this league on a good team for 5-7 years. If Marvin's agent will accept the Rockets full MLE offer, then I would be all for it.


I have to think that Morey knows Atlanta would match, or Marvin's agent wants a bigger payday.

 

Then this places even more emphasis on the Rockets needing to tank next season for a top lottery pick.

 

informative post.

 

Here is an equally plausible reality check....Battier isn't going to be here next summer.

I highly doubt we make it through the whole year with him...he will go to a contender for an expiring contract and interesting player. Why would you be willing to hand that money to Battier knowing that you aren't likely going to be competing for a championship unless you get one of the stars of 10-11 (which the OP correctly asserted, is pretty much impossible with Battier around)?

You don't keep Battier around at 8 a year, at his age especially, unless you are thinking championship

 

Great post capologist! Here is my thinking, but of course, its only me. The rockets should pawn shane off. Pawning shane off to a team with cap space now for a younger cheaper player would do the team a lot of good for next yr. Of course that team shouldn't have its sights on the upcoming fa pool, so my first team is the clippers. They absorbed camby who was a better player than shane. So if the rox can get jordan, that save saves them 6m right there. Trade scola. Again we're opening up room for a move and having a cap hold of 6m won't help. Trade him for whom? I would see if they could get Marc Gasol. He's younger with equal production and he's a center. Another thing to watch is how well brooks plays. If brooks plays like he did in the playoffs, then the team can and should move lowry. There isn't room for 2 young pg's on the roster. At some point the team is going to have to make a decision.

 

gotcha. thanks a lot! wow so that would really screw with our cap as long as scola is unsigned.

So there are no possible scenario for us to land a top FA (unless its a sign and trade) unless we renounce the rights to luis scola or trade away shane.

So would we lose Luis's bird rights as well as his restricted status?
For example, lets say after we sign Chris Bosh for 13MIL, can we still go over the cap to sign Luis as an unrestricted FA for 6.5MIL?

One more scenario for us to ponder: If we use the CAP space to sign a restricted FA but he is matched, would we still lose Scola's bird rights and/or his restricted status?

thanks!

 

I'm glad that you have the vision and guts to point out these facts,there remains a fair amount of denial on the board. Overachieving can only get us so far. I feel the FA route was always going to be tough even with a healthy Yao,because there are many other options available to them. Building through the draft is what I've been advocating since Yao got injured. This half rebuilding,half contending plan can only work if we are very lucky with a McGrady trade.

 

Instead of a trade route or a drafting route, I think this current road that the rockets are taking- half contending, half rebuilding mode as you put it- are actually the best route the rockets should take.

I don't like the drafting route because of the luck we need and the horrible seasons that we as fans have to endure. Instead of being an exciting, competitive team to watch, are you sure you want to tell me that you prefer a tanking route just so we have a chance to land at one of the tops picks, which in turn would give us a successful franchise player at a probability of not more than 30%.

DM is constantly exploring trade scenarios to better the team, so this is always a branch off to the routes that we're taking regardless.

Finally, I think half-contending is best because you can only attract a top FA to come to us if we have pieces that will make him think we can contend immediately or down the road. Do you know why Ariza chose us over (I think Toronto it is who has offered more money)? Because he thinks we can be competitive this season and win someday. Do you know why places like Memphis would have no hope of landing any major FAs?

I think you get my point. You cannot just tank and hope that luck will come to your side.

 

Again, a whole lot of what the Rockets are able to do next year will be determined on the health of Yao, and whether management thinks they can count on him. If he's not going to be resigned after his contract expires, I'd argue that signing a major free agent (assuming the economy recovers somewhat and the cap gets set at the higher level of $55M or so) is the WORST thing the Rockets could do. Discounting LeBron and Wade, since there's a less than zero chance they'll come to Houston, either Amare, Bosh or Joe Johnson have all proven that they're not guys you can build around and win; they're all fantastic 1B guys, and if you had two of them, or 1+Yao, you could contend. But having 1 of them ties up most of your capspace, and inevitably, they'll need to be traded 3 or 4 years into their contracts as they slow down, and the team is mired in another 40 win season.

One way the Rockets could really use their capspace effectively, however, is in picking up loose change from teams that do want to go big in the summer of 2010, and those that will get murdered by the low luxury tax threshold. The OKC Bandits got 3 number 1s out of picking up Kurt Thomas's contract; I believe that thus far, Morey has shown he's pretty good with getting productive players out of low-round picks, and could rapidly accumulate a whole bunch of assets which could then be used to trade for a superstar. There's also a chance you might strike gold and pick up a lottery pick; the Jazz are going to be beneficiaries of the Suns's need to cut costs by getting the Knicks pick next year; the Timberwolves have the Bobcats's future pick; I believe that the Zombie-Sonics have the unprotected pick of Phoenix next year as well.

Ironically, besides pulling off super unbalanced trades for guys with high potential, this is how you build a killer team in NBA2K or Live; trade everyone for picks, package the picks to get something of slightly higher value, and continue to build assets until you manage to get a lottery pick, or can trade a bunch of solid guys for a superstar.

Morey using Live for more than scouting?