As I was thinking about all the recent contenders in the NBA, thinking what the Rockets can do to put themselves in a contending position, I suddenly realized how many top picks are involved. So I looked up the top players of team at least making the conference finals of the past few years. And the results are pretty damning. And as a Rockets fan, very disconcerting. Because it makes me wonder if we can possibly rebuild without giving up on a season first. Anyway, here's what we have. 2009 Lakers: Kobe (13th pick) Gasol(obtained for free) Denver: Melo (3rd pick) Billups(trade) Orlando: Howard (1st pick) Lewis (FA) Turgolu (FA) Cleveland: Lebron (1st pick) 2008 Lakers: Kobe (13th pick) Gasol(obtained for free) Cleveland: Lebron (1st pick) Boston: Pierce (10th pick), KG(trade for Al Jefferson, a 15th pick), Allen(traded for the 5th pick) San Antonio: Duncan (1st pick), Parker(late pick), Ginobilli(late pick) 2007 Two #1 picks, a #3 pick. Only Detroit featured a team built purely through FA/trades 2006 #4 pick, Three #9 picks, Again only Detroit built through FA/trades The previous seasons more or less follow the same trend. Two teams didn't rely on lottery picks to contend. One is the Detroit Pistons, who managed to put together a championship caliber team with Billups(FA), Ben Wallace(traded from Orlando as filler for Grant Hill), Hamilto(trade for Stackhouse), Rasheed Wallace(trade for crap), Prince (low pick). The other is the Lakers, who got an all-star for free. Personally, this tells me that if we're not going to try to suck, then Morey needs to perform the mother of all magics. Because not only does he have to find talent literally for free(Detroit barely gave up anything for those players), but that he has to make sure they gel. Because you need strong team chemistry to make up for problems with your top players. After all, Chauncey Billups was shoot-first PG. Sheed was a headcase. Hamilton could do nothing but shoot. Wallace can't play offense. Prince was basically Ariza+. Yet together they became a championship team. Can Morey find that chemistry? Then again, we can always hope some team will hand us an all-star for free.
Contending for a championship: Stay Healthy... We already had our #1 Draft pick remember? His name is Yao Ming.
Here is an article that talks about this. Part 3 really talks about how most teams acquired star players and all (i.e. what draft picks you really need to get a true star player). Part 1 & 2 are the ones that really talk about what he means when he means star players. Part 1 Part 2 Part 3
I get the vibe that as far as Morey is concerned, not only is the TMac experiment over, so is the Yao era. Morey really isn't looking to improve our roster this off-season... he just can't say it. We are going to suck so we can get another piece or 2 from the draft
orbb, I get that too. But sometimes I wonder if there's pressure from fans and Les(mainly ticket sales issues) to keep a competitive team. Obviously, attendance is going to take a huge dip next season if we put up a crap team. But the important thing is that they're all VERY HIGH picks. We're not talking about even the ~10-20 picks, which is what we're going to get if we try to actually round out the roster. For the most part, we're talking about top 4-5 picks. Well, this is based on the assumption that he'll never be fully healthy. Which as of this moment seems to be a very safe assumption. Glad someone actually talk about it in detail. So it's not just me making up random and perhaps wrong assumptions.
I feel bad for the players, good thing they are all young and will get a bigger piece of the offensive pie, well except for Shane.
Its usually a pretty even % when you get to the top 5-10 draft picks of each year. Some are busts, some are good role players, some are superstars....Occasionally you will get a great crop of players('03 draft, but even that draft had Darko)Thats the way it goes. Each team needs to use FA, the draft and trades to make their team better. DM will not let us down, he hasn't yet..
I agree with the OP but I think Morey is one of the few GM's (like Dumars) who can make a championship caliber team without earning a high draft pick. He specializes in making moves for higher value. The good franchises don't have to suck. Good organizations understand that the best moves are made through trade. I could definitely see us moving some combination of Mcgrady/Battier/expirings for bad contracts and a high draft pick or for a good player on a team looking for cap relief.
With the heavy constraints of the salary cap/luxury tax, a lot of the reason for this now is financial. Superstar players are usually pretty good even in their first few years in the league, making them tremendous values at their salary. This frees up room for premium players in the rest of the team's cap space. The re-signing rules also favor a team's ability to retain its young superstars. So... the thesis is correct. It applies to the Rockets too, as we've built around Yao since he was drafted. We were very lucky to get Francis at the time (horrible trade by the Grizzlies). But... I do think it's possible to go all in and take a risk with an older team as well. Celtics are a good example, and the Pistons were too. It's harder, but not impossible.
