Best, worst from Astros’ prospects to this point

I think Lyles is probably the Astros' top prospect right now and will probably be the team's first elite-level minor league prospect since Oswalt.

 

Especially after tonight's game where he went seven innings, giving up seven hits, one walk and 10 K's.

For the season Lyles (18 y/o) has 118K's/21BBs, thats almost a 6:1 ratio. The other promising thing is that he makes a lot of batters miss, which indicates he's locating his pitches. Lyles is still a little wild at times, but should hopefully move up pretty quickly through the minors.

Robert Bono (20 y/o) still continues to look like another solid pitcher that could make the jump soon from Lexington. Bono is 8-4 with a 2.45 ERA, with 9 BBs and 43 K's.

Ross Seaton (19 y/o) is still one of the promising pitchers on the Lexington staff. He doesn't have as many K's as Lyles, but still has good command of his pitches.

Ashton Mowdy (23 y/o) looks like a really good reliever and could probably make the move up soon if he continues to pitch as well.

 

I disagree. I don't think anyone at low-A can be considered the top prospect in the organization. Lyles may have the most projectability but he's atleast two if not three years from the majors.

Bud Norris is looking to be pretty good at AAA. He has a 2.45 era and a 9.0K/9 on the season. He's also averaged > 9.0 K/9 at every stop in the minors. He'll be up in the majors next season if not by the end of this season. Keep in mind, he has the 2nd most K's in the minors, only trailing Tommy Hanson of the Braves.

And Baseball America still thinks Jason Castro is the Astros top prospect.

 

That's an interesting theory. So for you someone like Strasburgh (or harper next year) would not be considered a better prospect than someone like Chris Johnson or Bud Norris because of where they are now?

Norris is a nice prospect but his ceiling is probably a #3 starter and there still is a decent possiblity he may only be reliever in the majors.

For Castro, has BA updated their rankings recently? Or are you just relying on the list they put together 6 months ago? I'm still anxious to see Castro slug over 400 someplace other than Lancaster. Unless an injury or something very unexpected occurs I'm sure you'll see Lyles as the top astros prospect on just about every industry-wide ranking this offseason.

Whatever you want to call it, Lyles has the best chance to be the best major league player out of all the Astros' minor leaguers.

 

Castro is slugging .378 in his first 20 AA games. He also hit safely in his first 10 AA games. For a guy who completely skipped low-A ball and got promoted to Double-A two months into his first full pro season, there's no question that he's still the top prospect in the organization. He'll already be entrenched in Houston by the time Lyles or any of the vaunted 'Lexington 5' make their mark there.

 

Touche, I hadn't really thought of players like Strasburg or Harper. I suppose those guys would immediately jump to the top of the Astros' prospects list.

But Jordan Lyles is not in that class of prospects. I tend rank prospects in the Baseball America manner. I.e ceiling, current minor league level and current success level. You sound like you're just factoring in ceiling. Lyles is certainly dominating low-A, but it is just low-A. Lyles is also pitching in a fairly pitcher friendly league. Norris has a better ERA and a similar K/9 at a 3-classifications higher league. You can't just dismiss that.

At this point Norris almost certainly has the better chance at being a major leaguer. Projecting where Lyles will be in 3 years is nothing like projecting where Norris will be in just months.

As for Castro, I believe there are a number of reasons why Castro could be a higher ranked prospect than Lyles. First, he plays a more premium position and will likely not have to move from catcher. Second, he dominated High-A like Lyles dominated low-A. I know the Cali league is a hitters league but you still have to put up the stats yourself. Catchers as a whole develop slower; they don't advance solely on the basis of their bat. I'm not saying I definitively think Castro is a better prospect but its probably closer than you think.

EDIT* After reading Jroza's reply, I got to thinking. Castro had a .925 OPS in the HWL and a .916 OPS in the Sally league in his first taste of pro ball. I'd probably keep him at the top of the prospect list.

 

gotcha. norris and castro are certainly much safer bets to be useful major league players than any 19 yo pitching prospect. Lyles has a higher ceiling though.

btw Castro hasn't played in the Sally league. He hit 767 ops (384 slg) last year in short-season A ball, 309/399/517 in the California League (which should be taken with a grant of salt given the park and the league-AA is the real test), and he had a nice winter league season.

Conversatively, Lyles right now is one of the top 25 pitching prospects in all of baseball and may be in the top ten by the end of the year. He's that highly regarded.

I'm not meaning to knock Castro. He's a good prospect, but Lyles barring injury has the chance to be a special player.

 

Agreed. Lyles has the potential to be a top 10 pitching prospect. But Castro is already a top- 5 catching prospect. It's debatable which is worth more. Given that the Astros really need both, I dunno. Bud Norris definitely cracks the BA top 100 prospects next year too though.

 

Just checked out Lyles' stats after reading this thread. My god the kid's definitely something special. The Astros farms system have sucked so much I'd have been okay with some 22 year old putting up such numbers. But at 18? He even has good size too.

 

National coverage of the Astros is NEVER accurate. Guys like Oswalt, Berkman, Pence were vastly under-rated at the time. Castro projects to be a 265 hitter with mediocre power and a slightly above average glove...... basically a mediocre catcher

 

That could be said for all Houston sports teams. During baseball season all you ever see is Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers on ESPN.

The Astros prospects have gotten a little more love recently from BA, Project Prospect, Baseball Prospectus, etc.

The jury is still out with some about Castro because of the numbers he put up in Lancaster. So far he's looked good in Corpus and should continue to learn from Luis Pujols on the nuances of calling the game and being a field general.

Lately Lyles has gotten a lot of love from baseball writers, bloggers, etc. because of the numbers he's putting up. I won't be surprised to see him climb up the "top prospects list" next season, or at the end of this season for that matter.

 

The list is primarily based on talent and talent projection. Thats why you have a prospect like Eric Hosmer who isn't doing too well in the minors on the list, there was a Royals' fan who left a comment saying as much.

IMO if Castro had been drafted by the Mets or Yankees, he'd be much more highly touted. The M.O. on the Astros is that they draft horribly and so whoever they pick is gonna suck. Castro was seen as an overdraft @ #10 by BA and several publications and that was compounded by the fact that Justin Smoak was still on the board at the time.

Castro has done well so far in his short professional career. This time last year he was coming off the College World Series and was a few weeks away from starting his professional career, now he is at Double-A Corpus. Lets give the guy some time to develop before judgment gets passed on whether or not we should have picked a different player (not that I'm saying you're doing that). So far the 2008 draft class for Astros looks good, lets hope they continue to develop and the 2009 and subsequent classes do the same.

 

In the end, what are we going to need in two years? Another (potentially) elite 1B or potentially above average to very good C? It's arguable no doubt, but given the lack of anything the Stros have had over the years at catcher, I can see why they went with Castro.

Berkman will be 35 in two years, he should have at least a few decent/good years in him at after that age (if he resigns). I look at it as the Astros hedged their bet that Lance will still be an Astro and still good by the time Castro comes up.

Smoak would probably make it to the majors first and have no place to play. He wouldn't replace Lance or Carlos for sure and it's unlikely he'd move Hunter to CF. An outfield of Carlos, Hunter and Smoak would be absolutely horrendous defensively.

 

Jason Castro just homered in the Future's Game

 

just posted the same in the stros game thread. gunned somebody out at 3rd in the top half of the inning too. i'd imagine he has mvp if the lead holds.

 

well, he got screwed out of MVP, but chia jen lo is picking up the win if the lead holds